{ "pib-croissance": { "name_en": "Real GDP growth, per cent", "name_fr": "Croissance du PIB réel, en pourcentage", "source": "IMF, World Bank, BCC, AfDB", "cols": [ "Year", "Real GDP growth, %" ], "rows": [ [ 1990, -6.6 ], [ 1991, -8.4 ], [ 1992, -10.5 ], [ 1993, -13.5 ], [ 1994, -6.1 ], [ 1995, 2.8 ], [ 1996, -1.9 ], [ 1997, -7.8 ], [ 1998, -3.9 ], [ 1999, -3.8 ], [ 2000, -8.1 ], [ 2001, -2.1 ], [ 2002, 2.9 ], [ 2003, 6.6 ], [ 2004, 7.7 ], [ 2005, 9.8 ], [ 2006, 5.1 ], [ 2007, 8.5 ], [ 2008, 7.4 ], [ 2009, 0.6 ], [ 2010, 7.8 ], [ 2011, 7.6 ], [ 2012, 8.7 ], [ 2013, 9.6 ], [ 2014, 7.3 ], [ 2015, 6.4 ], [ 2016, 0.4 ], [ 2017, 4.2 ], [ 2018, 6.1 ], [ 2019, 0.6 ], [ 2020, 0.8 ], [ 2021, 6.4 ], [ 2022, 9.3 ], [ 2023, 8.5 ], [ 2024, 6.1 ], [ 2025, 5.7 ], [ 2026, 5.9 ] ], "note": "Serie telle que tracee dans la figure." }, "inflation-longue": { "name_en": "Consumer price inflation, per cent", "name_fr": "Inflation des prix à la consommation, en pourcentage", "source": "IMF, World Bank, BCC", "cols": [ "Year", "Inflation, %" ], "rows": [ [ 1990, 81.5 ], [ 1991, 2161 ], [ 1992, 4136 ], [ 1993, 1987 ], [ 1994, 23863 ], [ 1995, 542 ], [ 1996, 618 ], [ 1997, 200 ], [ 1998, 29.0 ], [ 1999, 285 ], [ 2000, 549 ], [ 2001, 358 ], [ 2002, 25.3 ], [ 2003, 12.8 ], [ 2004, 4.0 ], [ 2005, 21.5 ], [ 2006, 12.8 ], [ 2007, 16.7 ], [ 2008, 18.0 ], [ 2009, 46.0 ], [ 2010, 23.4 ], [ 2011, 14.9 ], [ 2012, 0.9 ], [ 2013, 0.9 ], [ 2014, 1.2 ], [ 2015, 0.7 ], [ 2016, 3.2 ], [ 2017, 35.7 ], [ 2018, 29.2 ], [ 2019, 4.7 ], [ 2020, 11.4 ], [ 2021, 9.0 ], [ 2022, 9.3 ], [ 2023, 19.9 ], [ 2024, 17.8 ], [ 2025, 8.0 ], [ 2026, 6.5 ] ], "note": "Serie telle que tracee dans la figure." }, "pib-indice": { "name_en": "Real GDP, index 2015 = 100", "name_fr": "PIB réel, indice 2015 = 100", "source": "IMF, World Bank, BCC", "cols": [ "Year", "Index, 2015 = 100" ], "rows": [ [ 1990, 77.0 ], [ 1991, 70.6 ], [ 1992, 63.1 ], [ 1993, 54.6 ], [ 1994, 51.2 ], [ 1995, 52.7 ], [ 1996, 51.7 ], [ 1997, 47.7 ], [ 1998, 45.8 ], [ 1999, 44.1 ], [ 2000, 40.5 ], [ 2001, 39.7 ], [ 2002, 40.8 ], [ 2003, 43.5 ], [ 2004, 46.8 ], [ 2005, 51.5 ], [ 2006, 54.0 ], [ 2007, 58.7 ], [ 2008, 63.0 ], [ 2009, 63.3 ], [ 2010, 68.3 ], [ 2011, 73.5 ], [ 2012, 80.0 ], [ 2013, 87.6 ], [ 2014, 94.0 ], [ 2015, 100.0 ], [ 2016, 100 ], [ 2017, 105 ], [ 2018, 111 ], [ 2019, 112 ], [ 2020, 113 ], [ 2021, 120 ], [ 2022, 131 ], [ 2023, 142 ], [ 2024, 151 ], [ 2025, 159 ], [ 2026, 168.4 ] ], "note": "Serie telle que tracee dans la figure." }, "taux-directeur": { "name_en": "BCC policy rate", "name_fr": "Taux directeur de la BCC", "source": "Banque Centrale du Congo, Monetary Policy Committee", "cols": [ "Effective date", "Policy rate, %" ], "rows": [ [ "2023-01-01", 11.0 ], [ "2023-08-09", 25.0 ], [ "2025-10-08", 17.5 ], [ "2026-01-08", 15.0 ], [ "2026-04-09", 13.5 ], [ "2026-07-17", 12.5 ] ], "note": "" }, "reserves": { "name_en": "International reserves, billions of US dollars", "name_fr": "Réserves internationales, en milliards de dollars", "source": "Banque Centrale du Congo, weekly readings", "cols": [ "Week ending", "Reserves, $bn" ], "rows": [ [ "2026-02-05", 7.3 ], [ "2026-04-29", 7.73 ], [ "2026-05-06", 8.05 ], [ "2026-06-11", 7.6 ], [ "2026-07-01", 8.27 ], [ "2026-07-30", 7.92 ] ], "note": "" }, "pop-entites": { "name_en": "Population by territory and city, 2026 projection", "name_fr": "Population par territoire et par ville, projection 2026", "source": "OCHA and Institut national de la statistique, Humanitarian Data Exchange", "cols": [ "Province", "Entity", "Type", "Population 2026" ], "rows": [ [ "Bas-Uele", "Aketi", "Territoire", 221726 ], [ "Bas-Uele", "Ango", "Territoire", 111815 ], [ "Bas-Uele", "Bambesa", "Territoire", 134346 ], [ "Bas-Uele", "Bondo", "Territoire", 271560 ], [ "Bas-Uele", "Buta", "Territoire", 282199 ], [ "Bas-Uele", "Poko", "Territoire", 242180 ], [ "Bas-Uele", "Dingila", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Equateur", "Basankusu", "Territoire", 400786 ], [ "Equateur", "Bikoro", "Territoire", 346334 ], [ "Equateur", "Bolomba", "Territoire", 483380 ], [ "Equateur", "Bomongo", "Territoire", 206968 ], [ "Equateur", "Ingende", "Territoire", 279030 ], [ "Equateur", "Lukolela", "Territoire", 192738 ], [ "Equateur", "Makanza", "Territoire", 131634 ], [ "Equateur", "Mbandaka", "Ville / entité urbaine", 408266 ], [ "Haut-Katanga", "Kambove", "Territoire", 1007675 ], [ "Haut-Katanga", "Kasenga", "Territoire", 692892 ], [ "Haut-Katanga", "Kipushi", "Territoire", 335416 ], [ "Haut-Katanga", "Mitwaba", "Territoire", 328904 ], [ "Haut-Katanga", "Pweto", "Territoire", 638386 ], [ "Haut-Katanga", "Sakania", "Territoire", 265368 ], [ "Haut-Katanga", "Likasi", "Ville / entité urbaine", 159613 ], [ "Haut-Katanga", "Lubumbashi", "Ville / entité urbaine", 2674288 ], [ "Haut-Lomami", "Bukama", "Territoire", 1189429 ], [ "Haut-Lomami", "Kabongo", "Territoire", 835624 ], [ "Haut-Lomami", "Kamina", "Territoire", 693189 ], [ "Haut-Lomami", "Kaniama", "Territoire", 319914 ], [ "Haut-Lomami", "Malemba-Nkulu", "Territoire", 1036173 ], [ "Haut-Uele", "Dungu", "Territoire", 207029 ], [ "Haut-Uele", "Faradje", "Territoire", 389133 ], [ "Haut-Uele", "Niangara", "Territoire", 121956 ], [ "Haut-Uele", "Rungu", "Territoire", 372419 ], [ "Haut-Uele", "Wamba", "Territoire", 436496 ], [ "Haut-Uele", "Watsa", "Territoire", 299941 ], [ "Haut-Uele", "Aba", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Haut-Uele", "Isiro", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Ituri", "Aru", "Territoire", 1003608 ], [ "Ituri", "Djugu", "Territoire", 1820566 ], [ "Ituri", "Irumu", "Territoire", 1008551 ], [ "Ituri", "Mahagi", "Territoire", 1402056 ], [ "Ituri", "Mambasa", "Territoire", 377144 ], [ "Ituri", "Ariwara", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Ituri", "Bunia", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Ituri", "Ingbokolo", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Ituri", "Mongwalu", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Kasaï", "Dekese", "Territoire", 162522 ], [ "Kasaï", "Ilebo", "Territoire", 578769 ], [ "Kasaï", "Kamonia", "Territoire", 2572934 ], [ "Kasaï", "Luebo", "Territoire", 438644 ], [ "Kasaï", "Mweka", "Territoire", 740091 ], [ "Kasaï", "Tshikapa", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Kasaï-Central", "Demba", "Territoire", 804123 ], [ "Kasaï-Central", "Dibaya", "Territoire", 611334 ], [ "Kasaï-Central", "Dimbelenge", "Territoire", 462144 ], [ "Kasaï-Central", "Kazumba", "Territoire", 959649 ], [ "Kasaï-Central", "Luiza", "Territoire", 891710 ], [ "Kasaï-Central", "Kananga", "Ville / entité urbaine", 1059479 ], [ "Kasaï-Central", "Tshimbulu", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Kasaï-Oriental", "Kabeya-Kamwanga", "Territoire", 210712 ], [ "Kasaï-Oriental", "Katanda", "Territoire", 444131 ], [ "Kasaï-Oriental", "Lupatapata", "Territoire", 361281 ], [ "Kasaï-Oriental", "Miabi", "Territoire", 382797 ], [ "Kasaï-Oriental", "Tshilenge", "Territoire", 586853 ], [ "Kasaï-Oriental", "Lukalaba", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Kasaï-Oriental", "Mbuji-Mayi", "Ville / entité urbaine", 3427551 ], [ "Kinshasa", "Kinshasa", "Ville / entité urbaine", 9924784 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Kasangulu", "Territoire", 251106 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Kimvula", "Territoire", 86596 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Lukula", "Territoire", 340894 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Luozi", "Territoire", 266208 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Madimba", "Territoire", 440158 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Mbanza-Ngungu", "Territoire", 726605 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Seke-Banza", "Territoire", 255964 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Songololo", "Territoire", 345342 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Tshela", "Territoire", 431967 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Bangu", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Boma", "Ville / entité urbaine", 178307 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Inkisi", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Matadi", "Ville / entité urbaine", 340040 ], [ "Kongo-Central", "Moanda", "Ville / entité urbaine", 355960 ], [ "Kwango", "Feshi", "Territoire", 386581 ], [ "Kwango", "Kahemba", "Territoire", 430794 ], [ "Kwango", "Kasongo-Lunda", "Territoire", 779666 ], [ "Kwango", "Kenge", "Territoire", 712497 ], [ "Kwango", "Popokabaka", "Territoire", 197794 ], [ "Kwilu", "Bagata", "Territoire", 508532 ], [ "Kwilu", "Bulungu", "Territoire", 1239190 ], [ "Kwilu", "Gungu", "Territoire", 546897 ], [ "Kwilu", "Idiofa", "Territoire", 1272897 ], [ "Kwilu", "Masi-Manimba", "Territoire", 741480 ], [ "Kwilu", "Bandundu", "Ville / entité urbaine", 202944 ], [ "Kwilu", "Dibaya-Lubwe", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Kwilu", "Kikwit", "Ville / entité urbaine", 506235 ], [ "Kwilu", "Mangai", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Lomami", "Kabinda", "Territoire", 739040 ], [ "Lomami", "Kamiji", "Territoire", 109616 ], [ "Lomami", "Lubao", "Territoire", 599115 ], [ "Lomami", "Luilu", "Territoire", 948821 ], [ "Lomami", "Ngandajika", "Territoire", 852877 ], [ "Lomami", "Mwene-Ditu", "Ville / entité urbaine", 742525 ], [ "Lualaba", "Dilolo", "Territoire", 498860 ], [ "Lualaba", "Kapanga", "Territoire", 274692 ], [ "Lualaba", "Lubudi", "Territoire", 579318 ], [ "Lualaba", "Mutshatsha", "Territoire", 608390 ], [ "Lualaba", "Sandoa", "Territoire", 383382 ], [ "Lualaba", "Kasaji", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Lualaba", "Kolwezi", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Maniema", "Kabambare", "Territoire", 477265 ], [ "Maniema", "Kailo", "Territoire", 157488 ], [ "Maniema", "Kasongo", "Territoire", 674657 ], [ "Maniema", "Kibombo", "Territoire", 209485 ], [ "Maniema", "Lubutu", "Territoire", 222466 ], [ "Maniema", "Pangi", "Territoire", 415969 ], [ "Maniema", "Punia", "Territoire", 189613 ], [ "Maniema", "Kalima", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Maniema", "Kindu", "Ville / entité urbaine", 289598 ], [ "Maniema", "Namoya", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", "Bolobo", "Territoire", 149817 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", "Inongo", "Territoire", 408055 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", "Kiri", "Territoire", 203601 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", "Kutu", "Territoire", 407747 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", "Kwamouth", "Territoire", 134953 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", "Mushie", "Territoire", 133346 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", "Oshwe", "Territoire", 359302 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", "Yumbi", "Territoire", 129290 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", "Nioki", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Mongala", "Bongandanga", "Territoire", 805382 ], [ "Mongala", "Bumba", "Territoire", 1004202 ], [ "Mongala", "Lisala", "Territoire", 712451 ], [ "Nord-Kivu", "Beni", "Territoire", 421531 ], [ "Nord-Kivu", "Lubero", "Territoire", 1605236 ], [ "Nord-Kivu", "Masisi", "Territoire", 2064344 ], [ "Nord-Kivu", "Nyiragongo", "Territoire", 477620 ], [ "Nord-Kivu", "Rutshuru", "Territoire", 1709877 ], [ "Nord-Kivu", "Walikale", "Territoire", 648187 ], [ "Nord-Kivu", "Butembo", "Ville / entité urbaine", 801956 ], [ "Nord-Kivu", "Goma", "Ville / entité urbaine", 955240 ], [ "Nord-Kivu", "Oïcha", "Ville / entité urbaine", 1556661 ], [ "Nord-Ubangi", "Bosobolo", "Territoire", 383898 ], [ "Nord-Ubangi", "Businga", "Territoire", 554350 ], [ "Nord-Ubangi", "Mobayi-Mbongo", "Territoire", 123236 ], [ "Nord-Ubangi", "Yakoma", "Territoire", 361682 ], [ "Nord-Ubangi", "Gbadolite", "Ville / entité urbaine", 159005 ], [ "Sankuru", "Katako-Kombe", "Territoire", 341550 ], [ "Sankuru", "Kole", "Territoire", 198311 ], [ "Sankuru", "Lodja", "Territoire", 500960 ], [ "Sankuru", "Lomela", "Territoire", 217420 ], [ "Sankuru", "Lubefu", "Territoire", 454681 ], [ "Sankuru", "Lusambo", "Territoire", 334607 ], [ "Sankuru", "Bena-Dibele", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Sankuru", "Tshumbe", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Fizi", "Territoire", 853637 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Idjwi", "Territoire", 287940 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Kabare", "Territoire", 1050703 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Kalehe", "Territoire", 856819 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Mwenga", "Territoire", 760815 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Shabunda", "Territoire", 683289 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Uvira", "Territoire", 870290 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Walungu", "Territoire", 772956 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Baraka", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Bukavu", "Ville / entité urbaine", 968501 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", "Kamituga", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Sud-Ubangi", "Budjala", "Territoire", 642765 ], [ "Sud-Ubangi", "Gemena", "Territoire", 1241867 ], [ "Sud-Ubangi", "Kungu", "Territoire", 488401 ], [ "Sud-Ubangi", "Libenge", "Territoire", 417534 ], [ "Sud-Ubangi", "Zongo", "Ville / entité urbaine", 81889 ], [ "Tanganyika", "Kabalo", "Territoire", 280411 ], [ "Tanganyika", "Kalemie", "Territoire", 721683 ], [ "Tanganyika", "Kongolo", "Territoire", 546781 ], [ "Tanganyika", "Manono", "Territoire", 781118 ], [ "Tanganyika", "Moba", "Territoire", 540295 ], [ "Tanganyika", "Nyunzu", "Territoire", 288040 ], [ "Tanganyika", "Kaoze", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Tshopo", "Bafwasende", "Territoire", 223603 ], [ "Tshopo", "Banalia", "Territoire", 273210 ], [ "Tshopo", "Basoko", "Territoire", 363228 ], [ "Tshopo", "Isangi", "Territoire", 599712 ], [ "Tshopo", "Opala", "Territoire", 280146 ], [ "Tshopo", "Ubundu", "Territoire", 331687 ], [ "Tshopo", "Yahuma", "Territoire", 193963 ], [ "Tshopo", "Kisangani", "Ville / entité urbaine", 893612 ], [ "Tshopo", "Yangambi", "Ville / entité urbaine", 0 ], [ "Tshuapa", "Befale", "Territoire", 329164 ], [ "Tshuapa", "Boende", "Territoire", 289606 ], [ "Tshuapa", "Bokungu", "Territoire", 628430 ], [ "Tshuapa", "Djolu", "Territoire", 381150 ], [ "Tshuapa", "Ikela", "Territoire", 352898 ], [ "Tshuapa", "Monkoto", "Territoire", 138646 ] ], "note": "" }, "pop-provinces": { "name_en": "Population by province, 2026 projection", "name_fr": "Population par province, projection 2026", "source": "OCHA and Institut national de la statistique, Humanitarian Data Exchange", "cols": [ "Province", "Population 2026" ], "rows": [ [ "Nord-Kivu", 10240652 ], [ "Kinshasa", 9924784 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", 7104950 ], [ "Haut-Katanga", 6102542 ], [ "Ituri", 5611925 ], [ "Kasaï-Oriental", 5413325 ], [ "Kwilu", 5018175 ], [ "Kasaï-Central", 4788439 ], [ "Kasaï", 4492960 ], [ "Haut-Lomami", 4074329 ], [ "Kongo-Central", 4019147 ], [ "Lomami", 3991994 ], [ "Tshopo", 3159161 ], [ "Tanganyika", 3158328 ], [ "Sud-Ubangi", 2872456 ], [ "Maniema", 2636541 ], [ "Mongala", 2522035 ], [ "Kwango", 2507332 ], [ "Equateur", 2449136 ], [ "Lualaba", 2344642 ], [ "Tshuapa", 2119894 ], [ "Sankuru", 2047529 ], [ "Maï-Ndombe", 1926111 ], [ "Haut-Uele", 1826974 ], [ "Nord-Ubangi", 1582171 ], [ "Bas-Uele", 1263826 ] ], "note": "" }, "pop-top15": { "name_en": "The fifteen most populous entities", "name_fr": "Les quinze entités les plus peuplées", "source": "OCHA and Institut national de la statistique, Humanitarian Data Exchange", "cols": [ "Entity", "Province", "Type", "Population 2026" ], "rows": [ [ "Kinshasa", "Kinshasa", "Ville / entité urbaine", 9924784 ], [ "Mbuji-Mayi", "Kasaï-Oriental", "Ville / entité urbaine", 3427551 ], [ "Lubumbashi", "Haut-Katanga", "Ville / entité urbaine", 2674288 ], [ "Kamonia", "Kasaï", "Territoire", 2572934 ], [ "Masisi", "Nord-Kivu", "Territoire", 2064344 ], [ "Djugu", "Ituri", "Territoire", 1820566 ], [ "Rutshuru", "Nord-Kivu", "Territoire", 1709877 ], [ "Lubero", "Nord-Kivu", "Territoire", 1605236 ], [ "Oïcha", "Nord-Kivu", "Ville / entité urbaine", 1556661 ], [ "Mahagi", "Ituri", "Territoire", 1402056 ], [ "Idiofa", "Kwilu", "Territoire", 1272897 ], [ "Gemena", "Sud-Ubangi", "Territoire", 1241867 ], [ "Bulungu", "Kwilu", "Territoire", 1239190 ], [ "Bukama", "Haut-Lomami", "Territoire", 1189429 ], [ "Kananga", "Kasaï-Central", "Ville / entité urbaine", 1059479 ] ], "note": "" }, "pop-distribution": { "name_en": "Size distribution of the territories", "name_fr": "Distribution des territoires par taille", "source": "OCHA and Institut national de la statistique, Humanitarian Data Exchange", "cols": [ "Size class", "Number of territories" ], "rows": [ [ "< 100,000", 1 ], [ "100,000 - 250,000", 28 ], [ "250,000 - 500,000", 57 ], [ "500,000 - 1,000,000", 42 ], [ "1,000,000 - 2,000,000", 14 ], [ "> 2,000,000", 2 ] ], "note": "" }, "prix-cu-sn": { "name_en": "Copper, tin and zinc prices", "name_fr": "Cours du cuivre, de l’étain et du zinc", "source": "World Bank Pink Sheet, Oct 2026", "cols": [ "Period", "Copper, $/t", "Tin, $/t", "Zinc, $/t" ], "rows": [ [ "2023", 8490.3, 25938.2, 2652.8 ], [ "2024", 9142.0, 30066.3, 2775.8 ], [ "2025", 9947.4, 34058.8, 2867.6 ], [ "Q2-26", 13348.7, 51802.0, 3461.7 ], [ "Q3-26", 14114.3, 54022.7, 3831.7 ], [ "Jul 26", 13543.0, 52971.0, 3599.0 ], [ "Aug 26", 14326.0, 55385.0, 3875.0 ], [ "Sep 26", 14474.0, 53712.0, 4021.0 ] ], "note": "" }, "prix-cobalt": { "name_en": "Cobalt price", "name_fr": "Cours du cobalt", "source": "Fastmarkets, SMM, Reuters, press reports", "cols": [ "Date", "Product", "Price, $/lb" ], "rows": [ [ "2025-02", "Hydroxide", 5.6 ], [ "2026-04-09", "Hydroxide", 25.95 ], [ "2026-06-24", "Hydroxide", 25.4 ], [ "2026-06-24", "Metal", 26.23 ], [ "2026-09-04", "Metal", 25.53 ] ], "note": "Cobalt n'est pas dans la Pink Sheet." }, "prix-au-brent": { "name_en": "Gold and Brent crude prices", "name_fr": "Cours de l’or et du Brent", "source": "World Bank Pink Sheet, Oct 2026", "cols": [ "Period", "Gold, $/toz", "Brent, $/bbl" ], "rows": [ [ "2023", 1942.8, 82.625 ], [ "2024", 2387.6, 80.7083 ], [ "2025", 3441.5, 69.05 ], [ "Q2-26", 4512.0, 104.4 ], [ "Q3-26", 4267.7, 97.0333 ], [ "Jul 26", 4073.0, 83.4 ], [ "Aug 26", 4411.0, 90.9 ], [ "Sep 26", 4319.0, 116.8 ] ], "note": "" }, "prix-agri": { "name_en": "Agricultural commodity prices", "name_fr": "Cours des produits agricoles", "source": "World Bank Pink Sheet, Oct 2026", "cols": [ "Period", "Cocoa, $/kg", "Arabica coffee, $/kg", "Robusta coffee, $/kg", "Palm oil, $/t", "Rubber TSR20, $/kg", "African logs, $/cum" ], "rows": [ [ "2023", 3.28, 4.5408, 2.6267, 886.5, 1.3833, 378.6 ], [ "2024", 7.33, 5.6208, 4.4125, 963.5, 1.7533, 378.7 ], [ "2025", 7.7975, 8.47, 4.8608, 1006.8, 1.7692, 395.4 ], [ "Q2-26", 3.9867, 7.0133, 3.6767, 1163.7, 2.1733, 407.1 ], [ "Q3-26", 5.8267, 7.7133, 3.9133, 1148.3, 2.2633, 402.8 ], [ "Jul 26", 5.61, 7.91, 4.07, 1133.0, 2.14, 399.7 ], [ "Aug 26", 5.95, 7.97, 3.98, 1132.0, 2.24, 405.7 ], [ "Sep 26", 5.92, 7.26, 3.69, 1180.0, 2.41, 402.9 ] ], "note": "" }, "prix-coltan-li": { "name_en": "Tantalite and lithium prices", "name_fr": "Cours de la tantalite et du lithium", "source": "Press reports, Q1-Q2 2026", "cols": [ "Date", "Product", "Price", "Unit" ], "rows": [ [ "2026-01-01", "Tantalite", 106.6, "$/lb, implied" ], [ "2026-02-19", "Tantalite", 152.5, "$/lb" ], [ "2025-05", "Lithium carbonate", 8.0, "$/kg" ], [ "2026-06", "Lithium carbonate", 24.2, "$/kg" ] ], "note": "" }, "prix-indices": { "name_en": "World Bank commodity price indices", "name_fr": "Indices de prix des matières premières, Banque mondiale", "source": "World Bank Pink Sheet, Oct 2026", "cols": [ "Period", "Metals and minerals, 2010=100", "Precious metals, 2010=100" ], "rows": [ [ "2023", 104.0, 147.3 ], [ "2024", 106.7, 180.2 ], [ "2025", 112.2, 258.6 ], [ "Q2-26", 137.1, 359.6 ], [ "Q3-26", 145.7, 333.7 ], [ "Jul 26", 148.8, 317.2 ], [ "Aug 26", 144.6, 345.2 ], [ "Sep 26", 140.5, 338.6 ] ], "note": "" }, "prix-synthese": { "name_en": "Commodity price monitor", "name_fr": "Tableau de bord des cours", "source": "World Bank Pink Sheet, Fastmarkets, press", "cols": [ "Commodity", "Unit", "2025 average", "Latest", "Change, %", "As at" ], "rows": [ [ "Copper", "$/tonne", 9947.4, 14474.0, 45.5, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Cobalt hydroxide", "$/lb", "", 25.4, "", "24 Jun 2026" ], [ "Cobalt metal, Rotterdam", "$/lb", "", 25.53, "", "4 Sep 2026" ], [ "Gold", "$/troy ounce", 3441.5, 4319.0, 25.5, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Tin", "$/tonne", 34058.8, 53712.0, 57.7, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Tantalite (coltan)", "$/lb", "", 152.5, "", "19 Feb 2026" ], [ "Zinc", "$/tonne", 2867.6, 4021.0, 40.2, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Lithium carbonate", "$/kg", "", 24.2, "", "Jun 2026" ], [ "Crude oil, Brent", "$/barrel", 69.05, 116.8, 69.2, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Rough diamond", "index", "", "", "", "—" ], [ "Cocoa", "$/kg", 7.7975, 5.92, -24.1, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Coffee, arabica", "$/kg", 8.47, 7.26, -14.3, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Coffee, robusta", "$/kg", 4.8608, 3.69, -24.1, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Palm oil", "$/tonne", 1006.8, 1180.0, 17.2, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Rubber, TSR20", "$/kg", 1.7692, 2.41, 36.2, "Sep 2026" ], [ "Logs, Africa", "$/cubic metre", 395.4, 402.9, 1.9, "Sep 2026" ] ], "note": "" }, "sf-moments": { "name_en": "Business cycle moments, DR Congo", "name_fr": "Moments du cycle économique, RD Congo", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Banque mondiale, FMI ; calculs de l’auteur.", "note_en": "Cyclical components from a Hodrick-Prescott filter with lambda = 14400, on monthly data from 2013-01 to 2026-07. Level series are taken in logarithms, so the standard deviation reads as a percentage; rate series are filtered as they stand and the standard deviation reads in percentage points. The real aggregates (output, consumption, investment, hours) are published annually and interpolated to a monthly frequency, so their measured autocorrelation is an upper bound and should be read as one.", "note_fr": "Composantes cycliques obtenues par filtre Hodrick-Prescott, lambda = 14400, sur données mensuelles de 2013-01 à 2026-07. Les séries de niveau sont portées en logarithme, de sorte que l’écart-type se lit en pourcentage ; les séries de taux sont filtrées en l’état et l’écart-type se lit en points de pourcentage. Les agrégats réels (production, consommation, investissement, heures) sont publiés à fréquence annuelle puis mensualisés par interpolation ; leur autocorrélation mesurée constitue donc une borne supérieure et doit se lire comme telle.", "chiffres": [ 2, 2, 2, 2 ], "cols": [ [ "Series", "Série" ], [ "Std. dev., %", "Écart-type, %" ], [ "Relative to output", "Rapporté à la production" ], [ "Autocorr. (1)", "Autocorr. (1)" ], [ "Corr. with output", "Corr. avec la production" ] ], "rows": [ [ [ "Output", "Production" ], 0.89, 1.0, 0.98, 1.0 ], [ [ "Consumption", "Consommation" ], 0.65, 0.73, 0.98, 0.98 ], [ [ "Investment", "Investissement" ], 2.67, 3.01, 0.99, 0.89 ], [ [ "Hours worked", "Heures travaillées" ], 1.36, 1.53, 0.98, 0.41 ], [ [ "Exports", "Exportations" ], 1.79, 2.01, 0.99, 0.89 ], [ [ "Imports", "Importations" ], 2.18, 2.45, 0.99, 0.87 ], [ [ "Consumer prices", "Prix à la consommation" ], 4.78, 5.38, 0.98, 0.22 ], [ [ "Broad money", "Masse monétaire M2" ], 5.39, 6.07, 0.89, 0.07 ], [ [ "Exchange rate", "Taux de change" ], 5.58, 6.29, 0.97, -0.14 ], [ [ "Foreign reserves", "Réserves de change" ], 24.67, 27.77, 0.84, 0.07 ], [ [ "Copper price", "Prix du cuivre" ], 9.77, 11.0, 0.91, -0.08 ], [ [ "Public revenue", "Recettes publiques" ], 0.4, 0.45, 0.99, 0.17 ], [ [ "Public spending", "Dépenses publiques" ], 0.23, 0.26, 0.98, 0.39 ] ] }, "sf-structure-tab": { "name_en": "Structural features of the Congolese economy", "name_fr": "Traits de structure de l’économie congolaise", "source": "FMI, ITIE-RDC, USGS, Global Findex.", "note_en": "Each line refers to the official publication cited beside it. The first four describe one and the same dependence, seen from external trade, from the budget, from the world market and from the banking system; the fifth measures what limits the transmission of monetary policy.", "note_fr": "Chaque ligne renvoie à la publication officielle citée en regard. Les quatre premières décrivent une seule et même dépendance, vue du commerce extérieur, du budget, du marché mondial et du système bancaire ; la cinquième mesure ce qui limite la transmission de la politique monétaire.", "chiffres": [ 1 ], "cols": [ [ "Feature", "Trait" ], [ "Share, %", "Part, %" ], [ "Source", "Source" ] ], "rows": [ [ [ "Mining, share of goods exports", "Mines, part des exportations de biens" ], 98.9, [ "IMF Article IV", "FMI, article IV" ] ], [ [ "Mining, share of fiscal revenue", "Mines, part des recettes fiscales" ], 46.0, [ "EITI-DRC", "ITIE-RDC" ] ], [ [ "Cobalt, share of world output", "Cobalt, part de la production mondiale" ], 76.0, [ "USGS", "USGS" ] ], [ [ "Bank deposits held in foreign currency", "Dépôts bancaires en devises" ], 90.9, [ "IMF Article IV", "FMI, article IV" ] ], [ [ "Adults with an account at a financial institution", "Adultes disposant d’un compte bancaire" ], 26.0, [ "Global Findex", "Global Findex" ] ] ] }, "nat-pib": { "name_en": "Gross domestic product, levels and uses", "name_fr": "Produit intérieur brut, niveaux et emplois", "source": "FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026. Banque mondiale, Macro Poverty Outlook, édition d’avril 2026, fiche République démocratique du Congo ; seuils de pauvreté en parités de pouvoir d’achat de 2021.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "GDP, CDF bn", "PIB, milliards CDF" ], [ "GDP, $bn (IMF)", "PIB, milliards USD (FMI)" ], [ "GDP, $bn (World Bank)", "PIB, milliards USD (Banque mondiale)" ], [ "GDP per capita, $", "PIB par habitant, USD" ], [ "Total investment, % of GDP", "Investissement total, % du PIB" ], [ "Gross national saving, % of GDP", "Épargne nationale brute, % du PIB" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2023", 170711, 69.8, "—", "—", 15.5, 10.3 ], [ "2024", 216585, 76.7, 77.7, 710.9, 13.8, 9.7 ], [ "2025", 246893, 91.8, 87.6, 776.7, 13.3, 9.7 ], [ "2026", 269331, 109.2, "—", "—", 13.9, 11.7 ] ], "note_en": "2025 and 2026 are Fund projections, not outturns. The Fund and the Bank do not use the same nominal denominator: the gap reaches four billion dollars in 2025, so every ratio on this page names the denominator it rests on. The Fund publishes total investment and national saving but not gross fixed capital formation or household consumption separately, which is why those two lines are absent.", "note_fr": "2025 et 2026 sont des projections du Fonds, non des réalisations. Le Fonds et la Banque ne retiennent pas le même dénominateur nominal : l’écart atteint quatre milliards de dollars en 2025, de sorte que chaque ratio de cette page nomme le dénominateur sur lequel il repose. Le Fonds publie l’investissement total et l’épargne nationale, mais ni la formation brute de capital fixe ni la consommation des ménages prises séparément : ces deux lignes manquent donc." }, "ext-paiements": { "name_en": "Balance of payments, main balances", "name_fr": "Balance des paiements, principaux soldes", "source": "FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026. Banque mondiale, Macro Poverty Outlook, édition d’avril 2026, fiche République démocratique du Congo ; seuils de pauvreté en parités de pouvoir d’achat de 2021.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Current account, % of GDP", "Solde courant, % du PIB" ], [ "Current account, $m", "Solde courant, millions USD" ], [ "Goods balance, $m", "Solde des biens, millions USD" ], [ "Services balance, $m", "Solde des services, millions USD" ], [ "Current account, % of GDP (World Bank)", "Solde courant, % du PIB (Banque mondiale)" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 0, 0, 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2023", -5.3, -3678, 1601, -5094, -5.5 ], [ "2024", -4.2, -3187, 4231, -5821, -4.2 ], [ "2025", -3.6, -3340, 4562, -5906, -3.6 ], [ "2026", -2.2, -2384, 6206, -6486, -3.4 ] ], "note_en": "The external position of the DRC is the arithmetic of a mining surplus on goods offset by a structural deficit on services, freight and insurance above all, which the landlocked geography of the copper belt makes unavoidable. The two institutions agree on 2024 and 2025 and part company on 2026; both readings are given rather than reconciled.", "note_fr": "La position extérieure de la RD Congo se ramène à l’arithmétique d’un excédent minier sur les biens compensé par un déficit structurel sur les services, fret et assurance au premier chef, que l’enclavement de la ceinture du cuivre rend inévitable. Les deux institutions s’accordent sur 2024 et 2025 et divergent sur 2026 ; les deux lectures sont données plutôt que réconciliées." }, "ext-commerce": { "name_en": "Goods trade and the weight of the extractive sector", "name_fr": "Commerce de biens et poids du secteur extractif", "source": "FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Exports, $m", "Exportations, millions USD" ], [ "of which extractive, $m", "dont secteur extractif, millions USD" ], [ "Extractive share, %", "Part extractive, %" ], [ "Imports, $m", "Importations, millions USD" ], [ "of which capital goods, $m", "dont biens d’équipement, millions USD" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0, 1, 0, 0 ], "rows": [ [ "2023", 29601, 29427, 99.4, 28000, 12089 ], [ "2024", 34927, 34357, 98.4, 30696, 12104 ], [ "2025", 36406, 35717, 98.1, 31843, 13356 ], [ "2026", 40153, 39460, 98.3, 33947, 14487 ] ], "note_en": "The extractive share never falls below ninety-eight per cent over the period, which is the single fact from which most of the external vulnerability of the country follows. The share is computed from the two published Fund lines. The Fund projects exports to 2028, but not imports, so the table stops where both series stop.", "note_fr": "La part extractive ne descend jamais sous quatre-vingt-dix-huit pour cent sur la période ; c’est le fait unique d’où découle l’essentiel de la vulnérabilité extérieure du pays. La part est calculée à partir des deux lignes publiées par le Fonds. Le Fonds projette les exportations jusqu’en 2028, mais non les importations : le tableau s’arrête là où les deux séries s’arrêtent." }, "ext-composition": { "name_en": "Composition of external trade, 2023", "name_fr": "Composition du commerce extérieur, 2023", "source": "Banque mondiale, World Integrated Trade Solution, d’après Comtrade, exercice 2023.", "cols": [ [ "Item", "Poste" ], [ "Flow", "Sens" ], [ "Value, $m", "Valeur, millions USD" ], [ "Share of flow, %", "Part du flux, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Refined copper cathodes", "Cathodes de cuivre affiné" ], [ "Export", "Exportation" ], 16691.7, 60.2 ], [ [ "Cobalt oxides and hydroxides", "Oxydes et hydroxydes de cobalt" ], [ "Export", "Exportation" ], 4778.9, 17.2 ], [ [ "Copper ores and concentrates", "Minerais et concentrés de cuivre" ], [ "Export", "Exportation" ], 2158.1, 7.8 ], [ [ "Unrefined copper", "Cuivre non affiné" ], [ "Export", "Exportation" ], 1410.6, 5.1 ], [ [ "Non-monetary gold", "Or non monétaire" ], [ "Export", "Exportation" ], 1323.0, 4.8 ], [ [ "Consumer goods", "Biens de consommation" ], [ "Import", "Importation" ], 12413.0, 48.6 ], [ [ "Capital goods", "Biens d’équipement" ], [ "Import", "Importation" ], 6683.0, 26.2 ], [ [ "Intermediate goods", "Biens intermédiaires" ], [ "Import", "Importation" ], 3847.0, 15.1 ], [ [ "Raw materials", "Matières premières" ], [ "Import", "Importation" ], 2585.0, 10.1 ], [ [ "of which refined petroleum oils", "dont huiles de pétrole raffinées" ], [ "Import", "Importation" ], 9038.7, 35.4 ] ], "cle_tri": null, "note_en": "Export shares are taken against declared exports of 27,727 million dollars, import shares against declared imports of 25,529 million dollars, both free on board and cost-insurance-freight respectively as the source records them. Declared customs values fall short of the balance of payments figures in the table above, by about two and a half billion dollars on the export side: the gap is the usual one between mirror statistics and national accounts and should not be read as a measure of smuggling. Refined petroleum is listed separately because it crosses the consumer and intermediate categories in the source.", "note_fr": "Les parts à l’exportation sont rapportées aux exportations déclarées, 27 727 millions de dollars, et les parts à l’importation aux importations déclarées, 25 529 millions de dollars, respectivement franco à bord et coût-assurance-fret comme la source les enregistre. Les valeurs douanières déclarées restent en deçà des chiffres de balance des paiements du tableau précédent, de quelque deux milliards et demi de dollars à l’exportation : l’écart est celui, habituel, entre statistiques miroirs et comptes nationaux, et ne mesure pas la fraude. Le pétrole raffiné figure à part parce qu’il traverse les catégories consommation et intermédiaire dans la source." }, "ext-financement": { "name_en": "Financing of the external position and debt", "name_fr": "Financement de la position extérieure et dette", "source": "FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026. Banque mondiale, Macro Poverty Outlook, édition d’avril 2026, fiche République démocratique du Congo ; seuils de pauvreté en parités de pouvoir d’achat de 2021.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Net FDI, $m", "IDE nets, millions USD" ], [ "External debt, % of GDP", "Dette extérieure, % du PIB" ], [ "Public debt, % of GDP (IMF)", "Dette publique, % du PIB (FMI)" ], [ "Public debt, % of GDP (World Bank)", "Dette publique, % du PIB (Banque mondiale)" ], [ "Reserves, $bn", "Réserves, milliards USD" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1, 1, 1, 2 ], "rows": [ [ "2023", 1668, 17.2, 18.1, 27.4, 5.42 ], [ "2024", 2915, 14.1, 20.9, 22.9, 6.73 ], [ "2025", 2861, 11.8, 18.1, 21.1, 8.29 ], [ "2026", 3401, 14.0, 20.5, 21.6, "—" ] ], "note_en": "The two debt ratios differ by up to nine points of GDP because they do not cover the same perimeter; the Fund figure excludes part of the certified domestic arrears, which stood at about five billion dollars in 2024 and 2025. Reserves reached 8.8 billion dollars at the end of March 2026 and stood at 7.9 billion on 30 July 2026, that is three months of non-aid imports.", "note_fr": "Les deux ratios de dette diffèrent de neuf points de PIB au plus parce qu’ils ne couvrent pas le même périmètre ; le chiffre du Fonds laisse de côté une partie des arriérés intérieurs certifiés, qui atteignaient environ cinq milliards de dollars en 2024 et en 2025. Les réserves ont culminé à 8,8 milliards de dollars fin mars 2026 et s’établissaient à 7,9 milliards le 30 juillet 2026, soit trois mois d’importations hors aide." }, "nat-comptes": { "name_en": "National accounts: what is published and what is not", "name_fr": "Comptes nationaux : ce qui est publié et ce qui ne l’est pas", "source": "Institut national de la statistique (insrdc.cd, consulté le 15 août 2026), Banque centrale du Congo, FMI, travaux de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Account", "Compte" ], [ "Status", "État" ], [ "Where", "Où" ] ], "chiffres": [], "rows": [ [ [ "Integrated economic accounts", "Comptes économiques intégrés" ], [ "Not published online", "Non publiés en ligne" ], [ "INS, site under construction", "INS, site en construction" ] ], [ [ "Supply and use table", "Tableau des ressources et des emplois" ], [ "Not published online", "Non publié en ligne" ], [ "INS, site under construction", "INS, site en construction" ] ], [ [ "National accounts, summary note", "Comptes nationaux, note de synthèse" ], [ "Referenced, file unreachable", "Référencée, fichier inaccessible" ], [ "Banque centrale du Congo", "Banque centrale du Congo" ] ], [ [ "Social accounting matrix, 47 branches, 2018", "Matrice de comptabilité sociale, 47 branches, 2018" ], [ "Author’s work, not yet published", "Travaux de l’auteur, non encore publiés" ], [ "Working paper in preparation", "Document de travail en préparation" ] ], [ [ "Expenditure side of GDP", "PIB par la dépense" ], [ "Investment and saving only", "Investissement et épargne seulement" ], [ "IMF country report 26/2", "FMI, rapport pays 26/2" ] ], [ [ "Household consumption, share of GDP", "Consommation des ménages, part du PIB" ], [ "Not published", "Non publiée" ], [ "Growth rate only, World Bank", "Taux de croissance seulement, Banque mondiale" ] ], [ [ "Gross fixed capital formation, share of GDP", "Formation brute de capital fixe, part du PIB" ], [ "Not published", "Non publiée" ], [ "Growth rate only, World Bank", "Taux de croissance seulement, Banque mondiale" ] ] ], "note_en": "The DRC has produced a supply and use table and integrated economic accounts through the ERETES system, but neither is downloadable from a public source: the statistical institute’s portal announced its publication library as forthcoming when it was consulted in August 2026. The expenditure side is barely better served: the Fund publishes total investment and national saving, the Bank publishes growth rates for household consumption and for fixed capital formation, and nobody publishes either of those two as a share of output. This page therefore says nothing about the level of Congolese consumption, and the reason it says nothing is that no one has published it.", "note_fr": "La RD Congo a produit un tableau des ressources et des emplois et des comptes économiques intégrés au moyen du système ERETES, mais ni l’un ni les autres ne sont téléchargeables depuis une source publique : le portail de l’institut national de la statistique annonçait sa bibliothèque de publications comme à venir lorsqu’il a été consulté en août 2026. Le PIB par la dépense n’est guère mieux servi : le Fonds publie l’investissement total et l’épargne nationale, la Banque publie des taux de croissance de la consommation des ménages et de la formation brute de capital fixe, et personne ne publie ni l’une ni l’autre en part de la production. Cette page ne dit donc rien du niveau de la consommation congolaise, et si elle n’en dit rien, c’est que personne ne l’a publié." }, "fin-publiques": { "name_en": "Central government operations, per cent of GDP", "name_fr": "Opérations de l’État, en pourcentage du PIB", "source": "FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026. Les années 2016 à 2018 proviennent du rapport pays nº 19/285 (article IV de 2019).", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Revenue and grants", "Recettes et dons" ], [ "Revenue excl. grants", "Recettes hors dons" ], [ "Expenditure", "Dépenses" ], [ "Current", "Courantes" ], [ "Capital", "Capital" ], [ "Overall balance", "Solde global" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2016", 14.0, 11.2, 14.5, "—", "—", -0.5 ], [ "2017", 11.7, 9.8, 10.4, "—", "—", 1.4 ], [ "2018", 11.6, 10.4, 11.2, "—", "—", 0.4 ], [ "2023", 14.3, 13.2, 15.9, 9.4, 3.5, -1.6 ], [ "2024", 14.8, 13.8, 16.4, 10.2, 3.8, -2.1 ], [ "2025", 14.4, 13.5, 16.7, 9.8, 3.3, -2.4 ], [ "2026", 14.8, 14.1, 17.1, 10.1, 3.9, -2.8 ] ], "note_en": "The years 2019 to 2022 are missing because the Fund vintages consulted do not restate them on the revised national accounts; splicing them in from the old series would put non-comparable ratios side by side. Ratios up to 2018 rest on the old GDP series and should be read as orders of magnitude. Expenditure carries an exceptional line, security and elections, which the Fund reports separately: 2.9 points of GDP in 2023, 2.3 in 2024 and 3.5 in 2025. Total revenue and expenditure in 2024 were 29,820 and 35,519 billion Congolese francs.", "note_fr": "Les années 2019 à 2022 manquent parce que les millésimes du Fonds consultés ne les rétablissent pas sur les comptes nationaux révisés ; les reprendre de l’ancienne série reviendrait à juxtaposer des ratios non comparables. Les ratios antérieurs à 2019 reposent sur l’ancienne série de PIB et se lisent comme des ordres de grandeur. Les dépenses comportent une ligne exceptionnelle, sécurité et élections, que le Fonds isole : 2,9 points de PIB en 2023, 2,3 en 2024 et 3,5 en 2025. Les recettes et les dépenses totales de 2024 se sont élevées à 29 820 et 35 519 milliards de francs congolais." }, "fin-extractif": { "name_en": "Extractive revenue and the budget", "name_fr": "Recettes extractives et budget", "source": "FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026. ITIE-RDC, rapport final 2023 (signé le 31 décembre 2025) et rapport de cadrage 2024.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Extractive revenue, CDF bn", "Recettes extractives, milliards CDF" ], [ "Per cent of GDP", "En % du PIB" ], [ "Share of total revenue, %", "Part des recettes totales, %" ], [ "EITI extractive revenue, $bn", "Recettes extractives ITIE, milliards USD" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1, 1, 3 ], "rows": [ [ "2023", 8836, 5.2, 39.1, 5.378 ], [ "2024", 12325, 5.7, 41.3, 6.819 ], [ "2025", 12600, 5.2, 37.7, "—" ], [ "2026", 13225, 4.9, 34.9, "—" ] ], "note_en": "The Fund’s extractive line covers mining and petroleum tax and non-tax revenue, royalties from the Sicomines agreement included. The share of total revenue is my own ratio of two published Fund lines, not a figure the Fund publishes. The EITI column is not the same aggregate: it reconciles company payments with government receipts, and mining alone accounted for 6.453 billion dollars of the 2024 total. Two independent sources therefore say the same thing, that between a third and a half of what the Congolese state collects comes out of the ground.", "note_fr": "La ligne extractive du Fonds couvre les recettes fiscales et non fiscales des mines et des hydrocarbures, redevances de la convention Sicomines comprises. La part des recettes totales est mon propre rapport de deux lignes publiées par le Fonds, non un chiffre que le Fonds publie. La colonne ITIE ne recouvre pas le même agrégat : elle rapproche les paiements des entreprises des encaissements de l’État, et les mines seules comptent pour 6,453 milliards de dollars du total de 2024. Deux sources indépendantes disent donc la même chose : entre le tiers et la moitié de ce que perçoit l’État congolais sort du sol." }, "mon-prix-change": { "name_en": "Prices, exchange rate and money", "name_fr": "Prix, taux de change et monnaie", "source": "FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026. Banque centrale du Congo, cours indicatif et cours parallèle ; Institut national de la statistique, relevé hebdomadaire des prix.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Inflation, period average, %", "Inflation, moyenne annuelle, %" ], [ "Inflation, end of period, %", "Inflation, fin de période, %" ], [ "CDF per USD, average", "CDF par USD, moyenne" ], [ "CDF per USD, end of period", "CDF par USD, fin de période" ], [ "Broad money growth, %", "Croissance de M2, %" ], [ "FX share of deposits, %", "Part des dépôts en devises, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2023", 19.9, 23.8, 2444, 2687, 40.3, 89.8 ], [ "2024", 17.7, 11.7, 2823, 2856, 28.2, 91.6 ], [ "2025", 7.7, 4.3, 2688, 2300, 4.0, 90.0 ], [ "2026", 4.4, 6.1, "—", "—", 9.1, "—" ] ], "note_en": "Disinflation between 2023 and 2025 is the sharpest of the past decade and coincides with a franc that appreciated by about a fifth between August and October 2025, after the central bank revalued the franc-denominated reserve requirement on foreign currency deposits. The indicative rate stood near 2,250 francs to the dollar in July 2026 and the parallel rate at 2,266 in June, a spread narrow enough to be unremarkable. The dollarisation ratio is my own computation from the Fund’s monetary survey; no institution publishes it as such. The high-frequency price series published weekly by the statistical institute and by the central bank do not agree on the cumulative figure for 2026, and the difference is material.", "note_fr": "La désinflation de 2023 à 2025 est la plus vive de la décennie ; elle coïncide avec un franc apprécié d’un cinquième environ entre août et octobre 2025, après que la banque centrale eut réévalué la réserve obligatoire libellée en francs sur les dépôts en devises. Le cours indicatif avoisinait 2 250 francs pour un dollar en juillet 2026 et le cours parallèle 2 266 en juin, écart assez étroit pour ne rien signifier. Le taux de dollarisation est mon propre calcul à partir de la situation monétaire du Fonds ; aucune institution ne le publie tel quel. Les relevés de prix à haute fréquence publiés chaque semaine par l’institut de la statistique et par la banque centrale ne concordent pas sur le cumul de 2026, et l’écart n’est pas négligeable." }, "dev-pauvrete": { "name_en": "Poverty and inequality", "name_fr": "Pauvreté et inégalités", "source": "Banque mondiale, Poverty and Equity Brief — Democratic Republic of Congo, octobre 2025. PNUD, Rapport sur le développement humain 2025, annexe statistique.", "cols": [ [ "Indicator", "Indicateur" ], [ "Value", "Valeur" ], [ "Reference year", "Année de référence" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Extreme poverty, $3.00 a day, 2021 PPP, %", "Pauvreté extrême, 3,00 USD par jour, PPA 2021, %" ], 78.9, "2012" ], [ [ "Extreme poverty, $3.00 a day, 2021 PPP, %", "Pauvreté extrême, 3,00 USD par jour, PPA 2021, %" ], 85.3, "2020" ], [ [ "People below $3.00 a day, millions", "Population sous 3,00 USD par jour, millions" ], 81.9, "2020" ], [ [ "Poverty at the national line, %", "Pauvreté au seuil national, %" ], 56.2, "2020" ], [ [ "Poverty at $4.20 a day, %", "Pauvreté à 4,20 USD par jour, %" ], 92.5, "2020" ], [ [ "Poverty at $8.30 a day, %", "Pauvreté à 8,30 USD par jour, %" ], 98.0, "2020" ], [ [ "Extreme poverty, urban, %", "Pauvreté extrême, urbain, %" ], 75.2, "2020" ], [ [ "Extreme poverty, rural, %", "Pauvreté extrême, rural, %" ], 93.9, "2020" ], [ [ "Gini index", "Indice de Gini" ], 44.7, "2020" ], [ [ "Prosperity gap", "Écart de prospérité" ], 26.1, "2020" ], [ [ "Income share of the poorest 40 per cent, %", "Part de revenu des 40 % les plus pauvres, %" ], 15.1, "2010-2023" ], [ [ "Income share of the richest 10 per cent, %", "Part de revenu des 10 % les plus riches, %" ], 35.7, "2010-2023" ], [ [ "Human development index adjusted for inequality", "Indice de développement humain ajusté aux inégalités" ], 0.341, "2023" ] ], "note_en": "Every poverty and inequality figure for the DRC rests on a household survey whose sampling frame is still the census of 1984, and the Bank states plainly that the 2005, 2012 and 2020 surveys are not fully comparable and that no consistent consumer price series exists to deflate them. A consumption survey completed in December 2024 was still being cleaned in late 2025. The right way to read the table is as an order of magnitude that has not moved: four Congolese in five live below three dollars a day, and the gap between the towns and the countryside is nearly twenty points. The Bank’s own October 2025 brief also carries a nowcast of nearly fifty million poor in 2024 which cannot be reconciled with the 2020 tabulation and appears to be left over from the earlier 2.15-dollar line.", "note_fr": "Tout chiffre de pauvreté ou d’inégalité pour la RD Congo repose sur une enquête de ménages dont la base de sondage reste le recensement de 1984, et la Banque dit clairement que les enquêtes de 2005, 2012 et 2020 ne sont pas pleinement comparables et qu’aucune série de prix cohérente ne permet de les déflater. Une enquête de consommation achevée en décembre 2024 était encore en cours d’apurement fin 2025. Le tableau se lit donc comme un ordre de grandeur qui n’a pas bougé : quatre Congolais sur cinq vivent sous trois dollars par jour, et l’écart entre la ville et la campagne approche vingt points. La note de la Banque d’octobre 2025 avance par ailleurs une estimation de près de cinquante millions de pauvres en 2024, inconciliable avec la tabulation de 2020 et qui semble héritée de l’ancien seuil de 2,15 dollars." }, "dev-humain": { "name_en": "Human development and governance", "name_fr": "Développement humain et gouvernance", "source": "PNUD, Rapport sur le développement humain 2025, annexe statistique. Transparency International, indice de perception de la corruption 2025. Banque mondiale, World Development Indicators, fiche pays consultée en août 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Indicator", "Indicateur" ], [ "Value", "Valeur" ], [ "Reference year", "Année de référence" ], [ "Source", "Source" ] ], "chiffres": [ 3 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Human development index", "Indice de développement humain" ], 0.522, "2023", [ "UNDP", "PNUD" ] ], [ [ "World rank, out of 193", "Rang mondial, sur 193" ], 171, "2023", [ "UNDP", "PNUD" ] ], [ [ "Life expectancy at birth, years", "Espérance de vie à la naissance, années" ], 61.9, "2023", [ "UNDP", "PNUD" ] ], [ [ "Expected years of schooling", "Durée attendue de scolarisation, années" ], 10.9, "2023", [ "UNDP", "PNUD" ] ], [ [ "Mean years of schooling", "Durée moyenne de scolarisation, années" ], 7.4, "2023", [ "UNDP", "PNUD" ] ], [ [ "Gross national income per capita, 2021 PPP $", "Revenu national brut par habitant, USD PPA 2021" ], 1431, "2023", [ "UNDP", "PNUD" ] ], [ [ "Corruption perceptions index, score out of 100", "Indice de perception de la corruption, note sur 100" ], 20, "2025", [ "Transparency International", "Transparency International" ] ], [ [ "Corruption perceptions index, rank out of 182", "Indice de perception de la corruption, rang sur 182" ], 163, "2025", [ "Transparency International", "Transparency International" ] ], [ [ "Human capital index", "Indice de capital humain" ], 0.366, "2020", [ "World Bank", "Banque mondiale" ] ], [ [ "Statistical performance indicator", "Indicateur de performance statistique" ], 46.3, "2024", [ "World Bank", "Banque mondiale" ] ] ], "note_en": "The corruption index moved by nothing at all over the years for which it is published, which is itself the finding: perceptions of governance in the DRC are stable and low. The statistical performance indicator is worth keeping in view on a page of this kind, since it measures the quality of the very apparatus that produces every other number here. The World Bank’s governance indicators were rebased in December 2025 onto an absolute scale and their percentile ranks are no longer the headline presentation, so they are left out rather than quoted from a superseded vintage.", "note_fr": "L’indice de perception de la corruption n’a pas bougé sur les années publiées, et c’est là le résultat : la perception de la gouvernance en RD Congo est stable et basse. L’indicateur de performance statistique mérite de figurer sur une page de cette nature, puisqu’il mesure la qualité de l’appareil même qui produit tous les autres chiffres. Les indicateurs de gouvernance de la Banque mondiale ont été rebasés en décembre 2025 sur une échelle absolue et leurs rangs centiles ne sont plus la présentation de référence : ils sont laissés de côté plutôt que cités d’un millésime périmé." }, "dev-acces": { "name_en": "Access to basic services", "name_fr": "Accès aux services de base", "source": "Banque mondiale, World Development Indicators, fiche pays consultée en août 2026. Institut de statistique de l’UNESCO, profil pays ODD 4, République démocratique du Congo, juin 2025.", "cols": [ [ "Indicator", "Indicateur" ], [ "Per cent", "En pourcentage" ], [ "Reference year", "Année de référence" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Population with access to electricity", "Population ayant accès à l’électricité" ], 22.5, "2024" ], [ [ "Population with safely managed sanitation", "Population disposant d’un assainissement géré en sécurité" ], 13.0, "2024" ], [ [ "Individuals using the internet", "Personnes utilisant internet" ], 20.0, "2024" ], [ [ "Population without at least limited drinking water", "Population sans eau de boisson au moins limitée" ], 45.3, "2020" ], [ [ "Population without at least limited sanitation", "Population sans assainissement au moins limité" ], 81.7, "2020" ], [ [ "Primary schools with electricity", "Écoles primaires raccordées à l’électricité" ], 10.0, "2023" ], [ [ "Primary schools with basic drinking water", "Écoles primaires disposant d’eau de boisson" ], 37.3, "2023" ], [ [ "Public spending on education, per cent of GDP", "Dépense publique d’éducation, en % du PIB" ], 2.8, "2022" ], [ [ "Public spending on education, per cent of budget", "Dépense publique d’éducation, en % du budget" ], 18.4, "2022" ] ], "note_en": "Electricity access is the binding constraint that the input-output table on this page cannot see: a country whose installed capacity is a fraction of its peak demand cannot move mining one step downstream, whatever the network multipliers say. Rural access, widely reported at around one per cent, is not tabulated in a source that could be verified and is therefore left out. The 2020 water and sanitation lines come from the household survey and use a different definition from the 2024 service indicators, so the two vintages are not to be differenced.", "note_fr": "L’accès à l’électricité est la contrainte que le tableau entrées-sorties de cette page ne peut pas voir : un pays dont la capacité installée ne couvre qu’une fraction de la demande de pointe ne peut pas déplacer la mine d’un cran vers l’aval, quoi que disent les multiplicateurs de réseau. L’accès rural, souvent avancé autour de un pour cent, n’est tabulé dans aucune source vérifiable et reste donc absent. Les lignes eau et assainissement de 2020 viennent de l’enquête de ménages et n’emploient pas la définition des indicateurs de service de 2024 : on ne différencie pas les deux millésimes." }, "dev-education": { "name_en": "School completion", "name_fr": "Achèvement scolaire", "source": "Institut de statistique de l’UNESCO, profil pays ODD 4, République démocratique du Congo, juin 2025.", "cols": [ [ "Level", "Niveau" ], [ "2013, %", "2013, %" ], [ "2024, %", "2024, %" ], [ "Change, points", "Variation, points" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Primary completion", "Achèvement du primaire" ], 51.7, 61.3, 9.6 ], [ [ "Lower secondary completion", "Achèvement du premier cycle du secondaire" ], 41.5, 50.4, 8.9 ], [ [ "Upper secondary completion", "Achèvement du second cycle du secondaire" ], 17.5, 22.5, 5.0 ], [ [ "Out of school, primary age", "Enfants non scolarisés, âge du primaire" ], 24.0, 17.0, -7.0 ] ], "note_en": "These are modelled estimates, not survey readings. The surveys of 2013 and 2018 put primary completion higher, at 68.9 and 66.7 per cent, and lower secondary completion at 53.5 and 54.4; the gap between the modelled and the surveyed series is a caution about both. The out-of-school line is for 2023, the last year the source models it. What survives the measurement problem is the shape: completion rises at every level, and falls by more than half between the start and the end of schooling.", "note_fr": "Ce sont des estimations modélisées, non des relevés d’enquête. Les enquêtes de 2013 et de 2018 situent l’achèvement du primaire plus haut, à 68,9 et 66,7 pour cent, et celui du premier cycle du secondaire à 53,5 et 54,4 ; l’écart entre série modélisée et série enquêtée invite à la prudence sur les deux. La ligne des enfants non scolarisés porte sur 2023, dernière année modélisée par la source. Ce qui survit au problème de mesure, c’est la forme : l’achèvement progresse à tous les niveaux, et se réduit de plus de moitié entre le début et la fin de la scolarité." }, "dev-alimentation": { "name_en": "Acute food insecurity", "name_fr": "Insécurité alimentaire aiguë", "source": "IPC, République démocratique du Congo, mise à jour de la projection d’insécurité alimentaire aiguë janvier-juin 2026, 12 mai 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Period", "Période" ], [ "Phase 3 and above, millions", "Phase 3 et au-delà, millions" ], [ "Share of the population analysed, %", "Part de la population analysée, %" ], [ "Phase 4, millions", "Phase 4, millions" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "September to December 2025", "Septembre à décembre 2025" ], 24.8, 21, 3.2 ], [ [ "January to June 2026", "Janvier à juin 2026" ], 26.5, 23, 3.6 ] ], "note_en": "The analysis covers 117 million people, the population base drawn from the statistical institute’s 2026 estimates. Phase 3 is crisis, phase 4 emergency; the phase 4 figures are floors, since the source gives them as more than. Nearly ten million of the twenty-six and a half are in the four eastern provinces alone, which is where the displacement figures in the next tab also concentrate.", "note_fr": "L’analyse porte sur 117 millions de personnes, base de population tirée des estimations 2026 de l’institut de la statistique. La phase 3 désigne la crise, la phase 4 l’urgence ; les chiffres de phase 4 sont des planchers, la source les donnant comme des minima. Près de dix millions des vingt-six et demi se trouvent dans les quatre provinces de l’Est à elles seules, là où se concentrent aussi les déplacements de l’onglet suivant." }, "sec-deplacements": { "name_en": "Internally displaced people", "name_fr": "Personnes déplacées internes", "source": "OIM, Matrice de suivi des déplacements, aperçu des déplacements internes 2026 ; OCHA, relevés 2021-2026. HCR, Global Appeal 2026, chapitre RD Congo, janvier 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Reading date", "Date du relevé" ], [ "Displaced, millions", "Déplacés, millions" ], [ "Scope", "Périmètre" ], [ "Recording body", "Organisme" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2 ], "rows": [ [ [ "December 2021", "Décembre 2021" ], 5.2, [ "National", "National" ], "OCHA" ], [ [ "December 2022", "Décembre 2022" ], 5.5, [ "National", "National" ], "OCHA" ], [ [ "December 2024", "Décembre 2024" ], 7.8, [ "National", "National" ], "OCHA" ], [ [ "April 2025", "Avril 2025" ], 6.82, [ "National", "National" ], "OCHA" ], [ [ "September 2025", "Septembre 2025" ], 5.0, [ "National", "National" ], [ "UNHCR", "HCR" ] ], [ [ "November 2025 to February 2026", "Novembre 2025 à février 2026" ], 5.65, [ "Four eastern provinces", "Quatre provinces de l’Est" ], [ "IOM displacement tracking matrix", "Matrice de suivi des déplacements de l’OIM" ] ], [ [ "13 April 2026", "13 avril 2026" ], 5.61, [ "National", "National" ], [ "OCHA and IOM", "OCHA et OIM" ] ] ], "note_en": "These readings are not a series and must not be differenced. Coverage, method and reporting body change between vintages, and the drop from 7.8 million at the end of 2024 to 5.6 million in 2026 reflects those changes as much as any return movement. The eastern reading of November 2025 to February 2026 covers four provinces only and counts 5,647,465 displaced alongside 3,525,590 returnees. Total forced displacement, internal and external together, was put at 8.2 million in September 2025.", "note_fr": "Ces relevés ne forment pas une série et ne se différencient pas. Le périmètre, la méthode et l’organisme changent d’un millésime à l’autre, et la baisse de 7,8 millions fin 2024 à 5,6 millions en 2026 tient à ces changements autant qu’à des retours. Le relevé oriental de novembre 2025 à février 2026 ne couvre que quatre provinces et dénombre 5 647 465 déplacés à côté de 3 525 590 retournés. Le déplacement forcé total, interne et externe confondus, était évalué à 8,2 millions en septembre 2025." }, "sec-provinces": { "name_en": "Displacement by province, eastern DR Congo", "name_fr": "Déplacements par province, est de la RD Congo", "source": "OIM, Matrice de suivi des déplacements, aperçu des déplacements internes 2026 ; OCHA, relevés 2021-2026.", "cols": [ [ "Province", "Province" ], [ "Displaced", "Déplacés" ], [ "Share of the four provinces, %", "Part des quatre provinces, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0 ], "rows": [ [ "Nord-Kivu", 2561136, 45 ], [ "Sud-Kivu", 1395604, 25 ], [ "Ituri", 1360577, 24 ], [ "Tanganyika", 330148, 6 ] ], "note_en": "The reading covers November 2025 to February 2026 and counts displacement inside and between these four provinces; 3,525,590 returnees were recorded over the same round. Nearly half of the displaced are in North Kivu alone. Set against the population table in the Population tab, the displaced amount to a quarter of the inhabitants of North Kivu and a fifth of those of Ituri.", "note_fr": "Le relevé porte sur novembre 2025 à février 2026 et dénombre les déplacements à l’intérieur de ces quatre provinces et entre elles ; 3 525 590 retournés ont été enregistrés sur le même tour. Près de la moitié des déplacés se trouvent dans le seul Nord-Kivu. Rapportés au tableau de population de l’onglet Population, les déplacés représentent le quart des habitants du Nord-Kivu et le cinquième de ceux de l’Ituri." }, "sec-refugies": { "name_en": "Refugees and asylum seekers", "name_fr": "Réfugiés et demandeurs d’asile", "source": "HCR, Global Appeal 2026, chapitre RD Congo, janvier 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Population", "Population" ], [ "Number", "Effectif" ], [ "Reading date", "Date du relevé" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Congolese refugees and asylum seekers abroad", "Réfugiés et demandeurs d’asile congolais à l’étranger" ], 1200000, [ "30 November 2025", "30 novembre 2025" ] ], [ [ "New arrivals in the five neighbouring countries since early 2025", "Arrivées nouvelles dans les cinq pays voisins depuis début 2025" ], 127000, "2025" ], [ [ "Refugees and asylum seekers hosted in the DR Congo", "Réfugiés et demandeurs d’asile accueillis en RD Congo" ], 529000, "2025" ], [ [ "Total forcibly displaced, internal and external", "Déplacement forcé total, interne et externe" ], 8200000, [ "September 2025", "Septembre 2025" ] ] ], "note_en": "Roughly half of the Congolese refugee population is in Uganda, and more than two fifths of those the DRC itself hosts are Rwandan. The agency’s own materials give the hosted caseload as both 529,000 and 490,000 in the same publication; the larger figure is used here and the discrepancy noted rather than resolved. The agency projects nine million forcibly displaced by the end of 2026.", "note_fr": "La moitié environ des réfugiés congolais se trouve en Ouganda, et plus des deux cinquièmes de ceux que la RD Congo accueille elle-même sont rwandais. Les documents de l’agence donnent l’effectif accueilli à la fois à 529 000 et à 490 000 dans la même publication ; le chiffre le plus élevé est retenu ici et la divergence signalée plutôt que tranchée. L’agence projette neuf millions de déplacés forcés à la fin de 2026." }, "sec-violations": { "name_en": "Documented human rights violations", "name_fr": "Violations documentées des droits de l’homme", "source": "Bureau conjoint des Nations unies aux droits de l’homme, rapport annuel 2025, présenté à Kinshasa le 12 mars 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Period", "Période" ], [ "Violations documented", "Violations documentées" ], [ "Victims documented", "Victimes documentées" ], [ "Scope", "Périmètre" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0 ], "rows": [ [ "2022", 5091, "—", [ "Five conflict-affected provinces", "Cinq provinces en conflit" ] ], [ "2023", 5273, "—", [ "National", "National" ] ], [ [ "First half of 2024", "Premier semestre 2024" ], 2355, 6309, [ "National", "National" ] ], [ "2025", 6169, 18000, [ "National", "National" ] ] ], "note_en": "Every figure here is a count of what the United Nations joint human rights office was able to document and verify, not an estimate of what occurred; the true figures are higher by an unknown margin, and the office says so. The 2022 line covers five provinces and is not comparable with the national counts. The 2025 total is a floor: within it the office documented 1,479 victims of conflict-related sexual violence, up by three fifths on the previous year, and more than 3,900 victims of extrajudicial execution, of whom nearly three hundred were children. Armed groups were held responsible for 71 per cent of violations and state agents for 28 per cent.", "note_fr": "Chaque chiffre est ici un décompte de ce que le bureau conjoint des Nations unies aux droits de l’homme a pu documenter et vérifier, non une estimation de ce qui est survenu ; les chiffres réels sont supérieurs d’une marge inconnue, et le bureau le dit. La ligne de 2022 porte sur cinq provinces et ne se compare pas aux décomptes nationaux. Le total de 2025 est un plancher : le bureau y a documenté 1 479 victimes de violences sexuelles liées au conflit, en hausse de trois cinquièmes sur l’année précédente, et plus de 3 900 victimes d’exécution extrajudiciaire, dont près de trois cents enfants. Les groupes armés ont été tenus pour responsables de 71 pour cent des violations et les agents de l’État de 28 pour cent." }, "sante-epidemies": { "name_en": "Other diseases under surveillance", "name_fr": "Autres maladies sous surveillance", "source": "OMS, « Multi-country outbreak of mpox, external situation report nº 69 », 14 septembre 2026 ; « Multi-country outbreak of cholera, epidemiological update nº 38 », 30 juin 2026 ; déclaration de la quarante-quatrième réunion du comité d’urgence du Règlement sanitaire international sur la poliomyélite, 4 mars 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Disease and scope", "Maladie et périmètre" ], [ "Period", "Période" ], [ "Cases", "Cas" ], [ "Deaths", "Décès" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Mpox, confirmed, DR Congo", "Mpox, confirmés, RD Congo" ], [ "July 2026", "Juillet 2026" ], 85, 0 ], [ [ "Mpox, confirmed, DR Congo", "Mpox, confirmés, RD Congo" ], [ "6 July to 16 August 2026", "6 juillet au 16 août 2026" ], 41, 0 ], [ [ "Mpox, confirmed, Africa, 35 countries", "Mpox, confirmés, Afrique, 35 pays" ], [ "1 January 2025 to 16 August 2026", "1er janvier 2025 au 16 août 2026" ], 52424, 238 ], [ [ "Mpox, confirmed, world", "Mpox, confirmés, monde" ], [ "1 January 2025 to 31 July 2026", "1er janvier 2025 au 31 juillet 2026" ], 65784, 264 ], [ [ "Cholera, suspected and confirmed, DR Congo", "Choléra, suspects et confirmés, RD Congo" ], [ "1 January to 31 May 2026", "1er janvier au 31 mai 2026" ], 28567, 815 ], [ [ "Cholera, suspected and confirmed, DR Congo", "Choléra, suspects et confirmés, RD Congo" ], [ "May 2026", "Mai 2026" ], 3651, 82 ], [ [ "Circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1, DR Congo", "Poliovirus circulant dérivé d’une souche vaccinale de type 1, RD Congo" ], "2025", 1, "—" ], [ [ "Circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2, DR Congo", "Poliovirus circulant dérivé d’une souche vaccinale de type 2, RD Congo" ], "2025", "—", "—" ], [ [ "Measles, DR Congo", "Rougeole, RD Congo" ], "—", "—", "—" ] ], "note_en": "Four diseases, four states of knowledge, and the table is built so that the difference shows. The mpox counts are confirmed cases, and the zeros in the death column are published zeros, not blanks; the World Health Organization attaches a warning to every Congolese mpox figure it prints, namely that reporting is delayed because national capacity is absorbed by the Bundibugyo response, so these are floors. The cholera counts mix suspected, rapid-test-positive and culture-confirmed cases, as the source does, and cannot be read as confirmed cases. For poliovirus the emergency committee names the DR Congo among the countries where both type 1 and type 2 circulate and gives one type 1 case for 2025, but publishes numeric type 2 counts only for Nigeria, Ethiopia and Yemen: the dash is the absence of a published figure, not the absence of the disease. Measles carries dashes throughout, and the reason is worth stating plainly. The organisation's measles surveillance figures are served from an interactive dashboard rather than published as a citable document, and this page prints nothing it cannot cite. The cells will be filled on the day a dated, attributable figure exists.", "note_fr": "Quatre maladies, quatre états du savoir, et le tableau est bâti pour que la différence se voie. Les décomptes de mpox sont des cas confirmés, et les zéros de la colonne des décès sont des zéros publiés, non des cases vides ; l’Organisation mondiale de la santé assortit chaque chiffre congolais de mpox qu’elle imprime d’un avertissement, à savoir que la remontée d’information est retardée parce que la capacité nationale est absorbée par la riposte Bundibugyo : ce sont donc des planchers. Les décomptes de choléra mêlent cas suspects, cas positifs au test rapide et cas confirmés par culture, comme le fait la source, et ne se lisent pas comme des cas confirmés. Pour le poliovirus, le comité d’urgence nomme la RD Congo parmi les pays où circulent les types 1 et 2 et donne un cas de type 1 pour 2025, mais ne publie de décompte chiffré de type 2 que pour le Nigeria, l’Éthiopie et le Yémen : le tiret est l’absence d’un chiffre publié, non l’absence de la maladie. La rougeole porte des tirets partout, et la raison mérite d’être dite sans détour. Les chiffres de surveillance de la rougeole de l’Organisation sont servis par un tableau de bord interactif plutôt que publiés sous forme de document citable, et cette page n’imprime rien qu’elle ne puisse citer. Les cases seront remplies le jour où un chiffre daté et attribuable existera." }, "demo-population": { "name_en": "Population", "name_fr": "Démographie", "source": "Banque mondiale, World Development Indicators, fiche pays consultée en août 2026. Nations unies, Département des affaires économiques et sociales, World Population Prospects, révision 2024.", "cols": [ [ "Indicator", "Indicateur" ], [ "Value", "Valeur" ], [ "Reference year", "Année de référence" ], [ "Source", "Source" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Total population", "Population totale" ], 109276265, "2024", [ "World Bank", "Banque mondiale" ] ], [ [ "Total population", "Population totale" ], 112832473, "2025", [ "World Bank", "Banque mondiale" ] ], [ [ "Population growth, per cent a year", "Croissance démographique, % par an" ], 3.2, "2025", [ "World Bank", "Banque mondiale" ] ], [ [ "Crude birth rate, per thousand", "Taux brut de natalité, pour mille" ], 41.31, "2023", [ "World Bank", "Banque mondiale" ] ], [ [ "Crude birth rate, per thousand", "Taux brut de natalité, pour mille" ], 40.88, "2024", [ "World Bank", "Banque mondiale" ] ], [ [ "Net migration", "Solde migratoire" ], -27309, "2025", [ "World Bank", "Banque mondiale" ] ], [ [ "Total fertility rate, children per woman", "Indice synthétique de fécondité, enfants par femme" ], 5.8, "2024", [ "UN population division", "Division de la population des Nations unies" ] ], [ [ "Median age, years", "Âge médian, années" ], 15.9, "2024", [ "UN population division", "Division de la population des Nations unies" ] ], [ [ "Urban share of the population, per cent", "Part urbaine de la population, %" ], 45.4, "2026", [ "UN population division", "Division de la population des Nations unies" ] ], [ [ "GDP per capita, current $", "PIB par habitant, USD courants" ], 806.8, "2025", [ "World Bank", "Banque mondiale" ] ] ], "note_en": "A median age of sixteen and a fertility rate near six put the DRC among the youngest populations on earth, and this is the demographic transition my third line of research takes as its object. The arithmetic that follows is unforgiving: at three per cent a year the population doubles in twenty-three years, so output must grow by more than three per cent merely to hold income per head still. Growth of five to six per cent, which the DRC has recorded, leaves two to three points of genuine convergence a year, and no more. The net migration figure is small enough relative to natural increase to be immaterial to that arithmetic. The birth rate is the only demographic series the World Bank tabulates cleanly for the country; the death rate is not published in a form that could be verified and is therefore absent.", "note_fr": "Un âge médian de seize ans et une fécondité proche de six placent la RD Congo parmi les populations les plus jeunes du monde, et c’est la transition démographique que prend pour objet mon troisième axe de recherche. L’arithmétique qui suit ne pardonne pas : à trois pour cent l’an, la population double en vingt-trois ans, de sorte que la production doit croître de plus de trois pour cent pour seulement maintenir le revenu par tête. Une croissance de cinq à six pour cent, celle qu’a enregistrée la RD Congo, laisse deux à trois points de convergence réelle par an, pas davantage. Le solde migratoire est assez faible au regard de l’accroissement naturel pour ne rien changer à ce calcul. Le taux de natalité est la seule série démographique que la Banque mondiale tabule proprement pour le pays ; le taux de mortalité n’est pas publié sous une forme vérifiable et manque donc." }, "str-croissance": { "name_en": "Growth by sector: the extractive economy and the rest", "name_fr": "Croissance par secteur : l’économie extractive et le reste", "source": "FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026. Banque mondiale, Macro Poverty Outlook, édition d’avril 2026, fiche République démocratique du Congo ; seuils de pauvreté en parités de pouvoir d’achat de 2021.", "cols": [ [ "Aggregate", "Agrégat" ], [ "2023", "2023" ], [ "2024", "2024" ], [ "2025", "2025" ], [ "2026", "2026" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Real GDP (IMF)", "PIB réel (FMI)" ], 8.5, 6.1, 5.6, 5.3 ], [ [ "Extractive GDP (IMF)", "PIB extractif (FMI)" ], 20.2, 11.9, 10.1, 5.0 ], [ [ "Non-extractive GDP (IMF)", "PIB non extractif (FMI)" ], 3.4, 3.1, 3.1, 5.4 ], [ [ "Agriculture (World Bank)", "Agriculture (Banque mondiale)" ], "—", 2.2, 2.3, "—" ], [ [ "Industry (World Bank)", "Industrie (Banque mondiale)" ], "—", 9.6, 8.6, "—" ], [ [ "Services (World Bank)", "Services (Banque mondiale)" ], "—", 1.1, 1.6, "—" ] ], "note_en": "This is the table that names the key sector. Extractive activity grows three to six times faster than everything else, and the gap has been open every year since 2023. 2025 and 2026 are projections, not outturns. The Fund’s real GDP line reads 5.6 and 5.3 for those two years where the headline series on this page reads 5.7 and 5.9: the vintages differ, and neither figure is corrected here to agree with the other. The Bank’s three lines are real growth at factor prices and cover 2024 and 2025 only, which is why the first and last columns carry a dash.", "note_fr": "C’est le tableau qui nomme le secteur clé. L’activité extractive croît trois à six fois plus vite que tout le reste, et l’écart est ouvert chaque année depuis 2023. 2025 et 2026 sont des projections, non des réalisations. La ligne de PIB réel du Fonds donne 5,6 et 5,3 pour ces deux années là où la série principale de cette page donne 5,7 et 5,9 : les millésimes diffèrent, et aucun des deux chiffres n’est corrigé ici pour s’accorder à l’autre. Les trois lignes de la Banque sont des croissances réelles aux prix des facteurs et ne couvrent que 2024 et 2025, d’où le tiret dans la première et la dernière colonne." }, "str-secteurs": { "name_en": "Structure of value added", "name_fr": "Structure de la valeur ajoutée", "source": "Banque mondiale, World Development Indicators, tableau 4.2 « Structure of value added », consulté le 16 août 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Sector", "Secteur" ], [ "2015, % of value added", "2015, % de la valeur ajoutée" ], [ "2024, % of value added", "2024, % de la valeur ajoutée" ], [ "Change, points", "Écart, points" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Agriculture, forestry and fishing", "Agriculture, sylviculture et pêche" ], 12.5, 9.6, -2.9 ], [ [ "Industry", "Industrie" ], 40.5, 39.9, -0.6 ], [ [ "of which manufacturing", "dont industrie manufacturière" ], 16.8, 8.2, -8.6 ], [ [ "Services", "Services" ], 42.4, 46.6, 4.2 ] ], "note_en": "The comparison year is 2015 because the World Bank table prints 2015 and 2024 and no 2010 column. Two readings matter here. Industry holds its share, but manufacturing inside it halves, from a sixth of value added to a twelfth: the industrial share is mining, and it is mining that has grown. Services take up the slack. The Bank does not publish a separate extractive-industries share of value added, so the key sector of the Congolese economy cannot be read directly off this table; it is read off the growth and export tables that follow, where the extractive figures are published in full. Nominal GDP went from 40.2 to 71.0 billion dollars over the same period.", "note_fr": "L’année de comparaison est 2015 parce que le tableau de la Banque mondiale imprime 2015 et 2024, sans colonne 2010. Deux lectures comptent ici. L’industrie tient sa part, mais la manufacture qu’elle contient est divisée par deux, d’un sixième à un douzième de la valeur ajoutée : la part industrielle, c’est la mine, et c’est la mine qui a crû. Les services prennent le reste. La Banque ne publie pas de part propre aux industries extractives dans la valeur ajoutée : le secteur clé de l’économie congolaise ne se lit donc pas directement sur ce tableau, mais sur ceux de la croissance et des exportations qui suivent, où les chiffres extractifs sont publiés en entier. Le PIB nominal est passé de 40,2 à 71,0 milliards de dollars sur la même période." }, "str-mines": { "name_en": "Mining output and the extractive share of exports", "name_fr": "Production minière et part extractive des exportations", "source": "United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, notices cuivre et cobalt, février 2026. FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Item", "Poste" ], [ "2024", "2024" ], [ "2025", "2025" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Copper, mine production, thousand tonnes", "Cuivre, production minière, milliers de tonnes" ], 2990, 3200 ], [ [ "Copper, refinery production, thousand tonnes", "Cuivre, production raffinée, milliers de tonnes" ], 2560, 2800 ], [ [ "Cobalt, mine production, tonnes", "Cobalt, production minière, tonnes" ], 226000, 230000 ], [ [ "Goods exports, $m", "Exportations de biens, millions USD" ], 34927, 36406 ], [ [ "of which extractive, $m", "dont extractif, millions USD" ], 34357, 35717 ] ], "note_en": "The 2025 column is an estimate in the Survey and a projection in the Fund report; 2024 is an outturn for mining and preliminary for trade. Two proportions carry the whole argument of this page. The Survey puts Congolese cobalt at about seventy-three per cent of world mine output. The Fund’s trade table puts the extractive share of goods exports at 98.4 per cent in 2024 and 98.1 per cent in 2025. Reserves are large enough that neither figure is about to fall for geological reasons: eighty million tonnes of copper and six million tonnes of cobalt.", "note_fr": "La colonne 2025 est une estimation dans la publication du Survey et une projection dans le rapport du Fonds ; 2024 est une réalisation pour la mine et un chiffre provisoire pour le commerce. Deux proportions portent tout l’argument de cette page. Le Survey situe le cobalt congolais à environ soixante-treize pour cent de la production minière mondiale. Le tableau du commerce extérieur du Fonds situe la part extractive des exportations de biens à 98,4 pour cent en 2024 et à 98,1 pour cent en 2025. Les réserves sont assez larges pour qu’aucun de ces deux chiffres ne baisse pour des raisons géologiques : quatre-vingts millions de tonnes de cuivre et six millions de tonnes de cobalt." }, "str-emplois": { "name_en": "Employment by sector, modelled estimates", "name_fr": "Emploi par secteur, estimations modélisées", "source": "Organisation internationale du travail, estimations modélisées ILOEST, reprises par la Banque mondiale, World Development Indicators, tableaux 2.3 et 2.4.", "cols": [ [ "Sector", "Secteur" ], [ "Men, 2015, %", "Hommes, 2015, %" ], [ "Men, 2019, %", "Hommes, 2019, %" ], [ "Women, 2015, %", "Femmes, 2015, %" ], [ "Women, 2019, %", "Femmes, 2019, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Agriculture", "Agriculture" ], 52.4, 51.4, 68.5, 67.8 ], [ [ "Industry", "Industrie" ], 11.9, 11.7, 4.8, 4.8 ], [ [ "Services", "Services" ], 35.7, 36.9, 26.7, 27.5 ], [ [ "Vulnerable employment", "Emploi vulnérable" ], "—", 75.5, "—", 88.7 ] ], "note_en": "These are modelled estimates, not survey readings: the Labour Organization fits them where a labour force survey is missing, and the DRC is such a case. They are printed because nothing better exists, and they should be read as orders of magnitude. Note the contrast with the value added table above: mining is the key sector for output and for exports, industry as a whole employs about one man in nine and one woman in twenty. Vulnerable employment is own-account and contributing family work; it is the nearest published proxy for informality, which is not published as such for the DRC. The Bank publishes no combined figure for both sexes.", "note_fr": "Ce sont des estimations modélisées et non des relevés d’enquête : l’Organisation du travail les ajuste là où une enquête sur la population active manque, et la RD Congo est un tel cas. Elles figurent ici parce que rien de mieux n’existe et elles se lisent comme des ordres de grandeur. On notera le contraste avec le tableau de la valeur ajoutée : la mine est le secteur clé pour la production et pour les exportations, l’industrie tout entière emploie environ un homme sur neuf et une femme sur vingt. L’emploi vulnérable réunit les travailleurs à leur compte et les aides familiaux ; c’est le substitut publié le plus proche de l’informalité, qui n’est pas publiée comme telle pour la RD Congo. La Banque ne publie aucun chiffre réunissant les deux sexes." }, "str-infra": { "name_en": "Infrastructure and access", "name_fr": "Infrastructures et accès", "source": "Banque mondiale, World Development Indicators, tableaux 3.7 « Electricity production, sources, and access » et 5.11 « The information society », consultés le 16 août 2026. Banque mondiale, Inga 3 Development Program, Project Information Document, rapport nº PIDIA01263, 8 avril 2025. Banque mondiale, DRC Transport and Connectivity Support Project SOP 2, Project Information Document, rapport nº PIDDC00863, 6 août 2024. Banque mondiale, Scaling-Up Water Supply and Sanitation Access in Kinshasa, Project Information Document, rapport nº PIDDC01437, 18 décembre 2025, d’après OMS et UNICEF, Joint Monitoring Programme, édition 2025.", "cols": [ [ "Indicator", "Indicateur" ], [ "Value", "Valeur" ], [ "Year", "Année" ] ], "chiffres": [], "rows": [ [ [ "Access to electricity, % of population", "Accès à l’électricité, % de la population" ], "20,8", "2021" ], [ [ "Access to electricity, rural, % of population", "Accès à l’électricité en milieu rural, % de la population" ], "≈ 1", "2022" ], [ [ "Hydropower, % of electricity produced", "Hydroélectricité, % de l’électricité produite" ], "99,6", "2015" ], [ [ "Inga 1 and 2, installed capacity, MW", "Inga 1 et 2, puissance installée, MW" ], "1 775", "2025" ], [ [ "Total road network, km", "Réseau routier total, km" ], "152 400", "2024" ], [ [ "Paved share of the national road network, %", "Part revêtue du réseau routier national, %" ], "2", "2024" ], [ [ "Individuals using the internet, %", "Personnes utilisant internet, %" ], "18,0", "2022" ], [ [ "Population without basic drinking water, %", "Population sans eau de boisson de base, %" ], "64", "2024" ], [ [ "Population without basic sanitation, %", "Population sans assainissement de base, %" ], "84", "2024" ], [ [ "Population without basic hygiene, %", "Population sans hygiène de base, %" ], "81", "2024" ] ], "note_en": "The rural electricity figure is printed as an approximation because the source words it that way; it is not rounded here. The Inga line is the installed capacity of the two existing dams, against a site potential the Bank puts near forty-two thousand megawatts. Three quantities that a reader would reasonably expect are missing and are missing for the same reason: the national utility publishes no accessible report, so total installed generating capacity and actual Inga output do not appear; mobile penetration is no longer carried in the Bank table and the Telecommunication Union portal serves nothing a script can read; and the water and sanitation lines are basic service, not safely managed service, because the safely managed shares are not published for the DRC.", "note_fr": "Le chiffre rural de l’électricité est imprimé comme une approximation parce que la source le formule ainsi ; il n’est pas arrondi ici. La ligne Inga donne la puissance installée des deux barrages existants, contre un potentiel du site que la Banque situe près de quarante-deux mille mégawatts. Trois grandeurs qu’un lecteur attendrait manquent, et manquent pour la même raison : la société nationale d’électricité ne publie aucun rapport accessible, de sorte que la puissance installée totale et la production effective d’Inga ne figurent pas ; la pénétration mobile n’est plus portée par le tableau de la Banque et le portail de l’Union des télécommunications ne sert rien qu’un programme puisse lire ; et les lignes d’eau et d’assainissement portent sur le service de base et non sur le service géré en toute sécurité, dont les parts ne sont pas publiées pour la RD Congo." }, "mig-transferts": { "name_en": "Personal remittances received", "name_fr": "Envois de fonds des migrants reçus", "source": "Banque mondiale, World Development Indicators, séries BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT et BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS, d’après les statistiques de balance des paiements du FMI ; millésime de la base du 13 juillet 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "$m", "Millions USD" ], [ "% of GDP", "% du PIB" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2018", 1823, 3.9 ], [ "2019", 2076, 4.4 ], [ "2020", 1196, 2.6 ], [ "2021", 1348, 2.3 ], [ "2022", 3262, 4.6 ], [ "2023", 3298, 4.7 ], [ "2024", 2001, 2.6 ] ], "note_en": "Remittances are the second largest current inflow after mineral exports, and at their 2023 peak they were worth about half of foreign direct investment. The series is not smooth and this page does not smooth it: it falls by a third in 2020, roughly triples between 2021 and 2022, and falls by two fifths again in 2024. The Bank publishes no revision note that would let a reader say which of the flow or its measurement changed, so the jumps are printed as they stand. The figures are Fund balance of payments data completed by Bank staff estimates, which is to say that informal transfers, believed to be large in the DRC, are captured only to the extent that the estimate captures them.", "note_fr": "Les envois de fonds sont la deuxième entrée courante après les exportations minières, et à leur sommet de 2023 ils valaient environ la moitié de l’investissement direct étranger. La série n’est pas lisse et cette page ne la lisse pas : elle recule d’un tiers en 2020, à peu près triple entre 2021 et 2022, et retombe de deux cinquièmes en 2024. La Banque ne publie aucune note de révision qui permettrait de dire ce qui, du flux ou de sa mesure, a changé : les sauts sont donc imprimés tels quels. Les chiffres sont des données de balance des paiements du Fonds complétées par des estimations des services de la Banque, c’est-à-dire que les transferts informels, réputés importants en RD Congo, n’y sont saisis que dans la mesure où l’estimation les saisit." }, "mig-emigres": { "name_en": "Congolese-born people living abroad, 2024", "name_fr": "Personnes nées en RD Congo vivant à l’étranger, 2024", "source": "Nations unies, Département des affaires économiques et sociales, International Migrant Stock 2024 (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2024), publié en janvier 2025.", "cols": [ [ "Country of residence", "Pays de résidence" ], [ "Number", "Effectif" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Uganda", "Ouganda" ], 637206 ], [ [ "Rwanda", "Rwanda" ], 236385 ], [ [ "Burundi", "Burundi" ], 224091 ], [ [ "Congo, Rep.", "Congo (Rép.)" ], 168387 ], [ [ "France", "France" ], 120178 ], [ [ "South Sudan", "Soudan du Sud" ], 97364 ], [ [ "Angola", "Angola" ], 93210 ], [ [ "Belgium", "Belgique" ], 88896 ], [ [ "Tanzania", "Tanzanie" ], 76772 ], [ [ "Zambia", "Zambie" ], 67171 ], [ [ "South Africa", "Afrique du Sud" ], 57519 ], [ [ "Kenya", "Kenya" ], 41186 ], [ [ "Canada", "Canada" ], 39790 ], [ [ "All countries", "Tous pays" ], 2097387 ] ], "note_en": "The Congolese diaspora numbered 2.10 million in mid-2024, against 1.92 million in 2020. The thirteen countries listed hold about ninety-three per cent of it. The geography deserves a second look: eleven of the thirteen are African and the four largest are immediate neighbours, so most Congolese emigration is regional and much of it is displacement that has settled. France, Belgium and Canada together hold about a eighth of the total, which is the part of the diaspora that the remittance series above mostly reflects.", "note_fr": "La diaspora congolaise comptait 2,10 millions de personnes à la mi-2024, contre 1,92 million en 2020. Les treize pays énumérés en portent environ quatre-vingt-treize pour cent. La géographie mérite un second regard : onze des treize sont africains et les quatre premiers sont des voisins immédiats, de sorte que l’essentiel de l’émigration congolaise est régional et qu’une bonne part en est un déplacement qui s’est installé. La France, la Belgique et le Canada réunis en portent environ un huitième, et c’est cette part de la diaspora que reflète surtout la série d’envois de fonds ci-dessus." }, "mig-asile": { "name_en": "Congolese refugees and asylum seekers, by country of asylum", "name_fr": "Réfugiés et demandeurs d’asile congolais, par pays d’asile", "source": "HCR, portail des données opérationnelles, situation RD Congo, relevés du 31 mars et du 30 avril 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Country of asylum", "Pays d’asile" ], [ "Number", "Effectif" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Uganda", "Ouganda" ], 657223 ], [ [ "Burundi", "Burundi" ], 109824 ], [ [ "Rwanda", "Rwanda" ], 79911 ], [ [ "Tanzania", "Tanzanie" ], 77137 ], [ [ "Zambia", "Zambie" ], 72258 ], [ [ "Kenya", "Kenya" ], 66236 ], [ [ "Malawi", "Malawi" ], 41071 ], [ [ "South Africa", "Afrique du Sud" ], 39261 ], [ [ "Congo, Rep.", "Congo (Rép.)" ], 30973 ], [ [ "Angola", "Angola" ], 23078 ], [ [ "South Sudan", "Soudan du Sud" ], 14808 ], [ [ "Zimbabwe", "Zimbabwe" ], 10419 ], [ [ "All countries recorded", "Tous pays relevés" ], 1238409 ] ], "note_en": "Read this table against the one above it. Of the 2.10 million Congolese living abroad, 1.24 million are registered as refugees or asylum seekers, and 657 thousand of those are in Uganda alone: more than half of the Congolese refugee population is in one country, and the Ugandan figure comes from the government rather than from the agency. The portal covers African countries of asylum only, so the total is a floor and not a world count. Figures are dated 31 March 2026, except Malawi, South Sudan and the total, which are dated 30 April 2026.", "note_fr": "Ce tableau se lit contre celui qui le précède. Sur les 2,10 millions de Congolais vivant à l’étranger, 1,24 million sont enregistrés comme réfugiés ou demandeurs d’asile, et 657 mille d’entre eux se trouvent en Ouganda seul : plus de la moitié de la population réfugiée congolaise tient dans un seul pays, et le chiffre ougandais provient du gouvernement et non de l’agence. Le portail ne couvre que les pays d’asile africains : le total est donc un plancher et non un décompte mondial. Les chiffres sont arrêtés au 31 mars 2026, sauf le Malawi, le Soudan du Sud et le total, arrêtés au 30 avril 2026." }, "mig-immigres": { "name_en": "Foreign-born people living in the DRC, 2024", "name_fr": "Personnes nées à l’étranger vivant en RD Congo, 2024", "source": "Nations unies, Département des affaires économiques et sociales, International Migrant Stock 2024 (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2024), publié en janvier 2025.", "cols": [ [ "Country of birth", "Pays de naissance" ], [ "Number", "Effectif" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Central African Republic", "République centrafricaine" ], 368125 ], [ [ "Rwanda", "Rwanda" ], 286208 ], [ [ "Angola", "Angola" ], 201592 ], [ [ "South Sudan", "Soudan du Sud" ], 103594 ], [ [ "Burundi", "Burundi" ], 67352 ], [ [ "Congo, Rep.", "Congo (Rép.)" ], 7108 ], [ [ "Uganda", "Ouganda" ], 6776 ], [ [ "Sudan", "Soudan" ], 6115 ], [ [ "All countries", "Tous pays" ], 1085090 ] ], "note_en": "The DRC receives as well as sends. One and a nine tenths million foreign-born residents is about one per cent of the population, and 51.8 per cent of them are women. The stock fell from 754 thousand in 1990 to 590 thousand in 2010 before rising to its present level, which tracks the conflicts of the neighbours rather than any Congolese immigration policy. Against a diaspora of 2.10 million, the country is a net sender by roughly a million people.", "note_fr": "La RD Congo reçoit autant qu’elle envoie. Un million quatre-vingt-cinq mille résidents nés à l’étranger, c’est environ un pour cent de la population, et 51,8 pour cent d’entre eux sont des femmes. Le stock est tombé de 754 mille en 1990 à 590 mille en 2010 avant de remonter à son niveau actuel, ce qui suit les conflits des voisins plutôt qu’une quelconque politique congolaise d’immigration. Face à une diaspora de 2,10 millions, le pays est émetteur net d’environ un million de personnes." }, "mig-interne": { "name_en": "Internal migration: what is published", "name_fr": "Migration interne : ce qui est publié", "source": "Kankwanda, Makabu, Nilsson, Roubaud, Torelli et Wachsberger, « Le marché du travail en République démocratique du Congo en 2012 : principaux résultats de la phase 1 de l’enquête 1-2-3 », DIAL-IRD, document de travail DT/2014-23, 2014, d’après l’enquête 1-2-3 de l’Institut national de la statistique.", "cols": [ [ "Item", "Élément" ], [ "Value", "Valeur" ], [ "Where", "Où" ] ], "chiffres": [], "rows": [ [ [ "Inter-provincial migration matrix", "Matrice des migrations interprovinciales" ], [ "Not published", "Non publiée" ], [ "No census since 1984", "Aucun recensement depuis 1984" ] ], [ [ "Residents who have not always lived in their locality, 2012", "Résidents n’ayant pas toujours vécu dans leur localité, 2012" ], [ "18,4 %", "18,4 %" ], [ "Survey 1-2-3, phase 1", "Enquête 1-2-3, phase 1" ] ], [ [ "of which women / men", "dont femmes / hommes" ], [ "19,4 % / 17,3 %", "19,4 % / 17,3 %" ], [ "Survey 1-2-3, phase 1", "Enquête 1-2-3, phase 1" ] ], [ [ "Kinshasa", "Kinshasa" ], [ "14,8 %", "14,8 %" ], [ "Survey 1-2-3, phase 1", "Enquête 1-2-3, phase 1" ] ], [ [ "Internal migrants of urban / rural origin", "Migrants internes d’origine urbaine / rurale" ], [ "47,9 % / 50,8 %", "47,9 % / 50,8 %" ], [ "Survey 1-2-3, phase 1", "Enquête 1-2-3, phase 1" ] ], [ [ "Migrants who came from abroad", "Migrants venus de l’étranger" ], [ "1,3 %", "1,3 %" ], [ "Survey 1-2-3, phase 1", "Enquête 1-2-3, phase 1" ] ], [ [ "Latest general population census", "Dernier recensement général de la population" ], [ "1984", "1984" ], [ "Institut national de la statistique", "Institut national de la statistique" ] ] ], "note_en": "Inter-provincial and intra-provincial migration is the clearest gap on this page, and it is worth being explicit about why. A migration matrix needs a census, and the last scientific census in the DRC was taken in 1984. The statistical institute’s portal was still marked as under construction in August 2026 and publishes no library; the Organization for Migration counts conflict displacement, which is a different thing and is set out in the security tab. What survives is the 1-2-3 survey of 2012, which asks whether a person has always lived where they now live: about one Congolese in five had not. That is a lifetime migration rate, not a flow, and it is fourteen years old. No matrix is constructed here from it, because none can honestly be.", "note_fr": "La migration interprovinciale et intraprovinciale est la lacune la plus nette de cette page, et il vaut la peine de dire pourquoi. Une matrice de migration demande un recensement, et le dernier recensement scientifique de la RD Congo date de 1984. Le portail de l’institut national de la statistique était encore annoncé comme en construction en août 2026 et ne publie aucune bibliothèque ; l’Organisation pour les migrations dénombre les déplacements liés au conflit, ce qui est autre chose et figure dans l’onglet sécurité. Il reste l’enquête 1-2-3 de 2012, qui demande si l’enquêté a toujours vécu là où il vit : environ un Congolais sur cinq n’y avait pas toujours vécu. C’est un taux de migration à vie, non un flux, et il a quatorze ans. Aucune matrice n’en est tirée ici, parce qu’aucune ne peut honnêtement l’être." }, "gouv-cpi": { "name_en": "Corruption Perceptions Index, 2019 to 2025", "name_fr": "Indice de perception de la corruption, 2019 à 2025", "source": "Transparency International, indice de perception de la corruption, éditions 2019 à 2025 ; l’édition 2025 a paru le 10 février 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Edition", "Édition" ], [ "Score, out of 100", "Score, sur 100" ], [ "Rank", "Rang" ], [ "Countries ranked", "Pays classés" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0, 0 ], "rows": [ [ "2019", 18, 168, 180 ], [ "2020", 18, 170, 180 ], [ "2021", 19, "—", 180 ], [ "2022", 20, "—", 180 ], [ "2023", 20, "—", 180 ], [ "2024", 20, "—", 180 ], [ "2025", 20, 163, 182 ] ], "note_en": "The score has moved by two points in seven years and has not moved at all since 2022, which is the finding: on this measure nothing has changed. The rank improved from 170th to 163rd over the same period, but ranks are the weaker reading, because the number of countries ranked changed and because a country can rise in the ranking without improving. The four missing ranks are missing because Transparency International stopped printing a rank column in its report from the 2021 edition onward; the ranks survive only in a spreadsheet this page could not read, and no rank is reconstructed here.", "note_fr": "Le score a bougé de deux points en sept ans et n’a plus bougé du tout depuis 2022 : c’est là le constat, rien n’a changé sur cette mesure. Le rang s’est amélioré de la 170ᵉ à la 163ᵉ place sur la même période, mais le rang est la lecture la plus faible, parce que le nombre de pays classés a changé et parce qu’un pays peut monter au classement sans s’améliorer. Les quatre rangs manquants manquent parce que Transparency International a cessé d’imprimer une colonne de rang dans son rapport à partir de l’édition 2021 ; les rangs ne subsistent que dans un classeur que cette page n’a pas pu lire, et aucun rang n’est reconstitué ici." }, "gouv-indices": { "name_en": "Governance, transparency and the public sector", "name_fr": "Gouvernance, transparence et secteur public", "source": "Transparency International, indice de perception de la corruption 2025. Banque mondiale, Country Policy and Institutional Assessment, fiche République démocratique du Congo, exercice 2024. Fondation Mo Ibrahim, indice Ibrahim de la gouvernance africaine, édition 2024, fiche RD Congo ; année de référence 2023. International Budget Partnership, Open Budget Survey 2025, fiche République démocratique du Congo ; situation arrêtée au 31 décembre 2024. Conseil d’administration de l’ITIE, décision 2022-50/BM-54 du 13 octobre 2022.", "cols": [ [ "Indicator", "Indicateur" ], [ "Value", "Valeur" ], [ "Source and year", "Source et année" ] ], "chiffres": [], "rows": [ [ [ "Corruption Perceptions Index", "Indice de perception de la corruption" ], [ "20 / 100, 163rd of 182", "20 sur 100, 163ᵉ sur 182" ], [ "Transparency International, 2025", "Transparency International, 2025" ] ], [ [ "CPIA, overall", "CPIA, note globale" ], [ "3,1 / 6", "3,1 sur 6" ], [ "World Bank, 2024", "Banque mondiale, 2024" ] ], [ [ "CPIA, transparency, accountability and corruption", "CPIA, transparence, redevabilité et corruption" ], [ "2,5 / 6", "2,5 sur 6" ], [ "World Bank, 2024", "Banque mondiale, 2024" ] ], [ [ "CPIA, public sector management and institutions", "CPIA, gestion et institutions du secteur public" ], [ "2,6 / 6", "2,6 sur 6" ], [ "World Bank, 2024", "Banque mondiale, 2024" ] ], [ [ "Ibrahim index, overall governance", "Indice Ibrahim, gouvernance globale" ], [ "32,8 / 100, 48th of 54", "32,8 sur 100, 48ᵉ sur 54" ], [ "Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2023", "Fondation Mo Ibrahim, 2023" ] ], [ [ "Ibrahim index, anti-corruption", "Indice Ibrahim, lutte contre la corruption" ], [ "15,8 / 100, 51st", "15,8 sur 100, 51ᵉ" ], [ "Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2023", "Fondation Mo Ibrahim, 2023" ] ], [ [ "Ibrahim index, accountability and transparency", "Indice Ibrahim, redevabilité et transparence" ], [ "23,3 / 100, 39th", "23,3 sur 100, 39ᵉ" ], [ "Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2023", "Fondation Mo Ibrahim, 2023" ] ], [ [ "Open Budget Survey, budget transparency", "Open Budget Survey, transparence budgétaire" ], [ "41 / 100", "41 sur 100" ], [ "Budget Partnership, 2025", "International Budget Partnership, 2025" ] ], [ [ "Open Budget Survey, public participation", "Open Budget Survey, participation du public" ], [ "31 / 100", "31 sur 100" ], [ "Budget Partnership, 2025", "International Budget Partnership, 2025" ] ], [ [ "Open Budget Survey, budget oversight", "Open Budget Survey, contrôle budgétaire" ], [ "52 / 100", "52 sur 100" ], [ "Budget Partnership, 2025", "International Budget Partnership, 2025" ] ], [ [ "EITI validation score", "Score de validation ITIE" ], [ "85,5 / 100", "85,5 sur 100" ], [ "EITI Board, October 2022", "Conseil de l’ITIE, octobre 2022" ] ], [ [ "Worldwide Governance Indicators, percentile ranks", "Indicateurs mondiaux de gouvernance, rangs centiles" ], [ "Discontinued", "Abandonnés" ], [ "World Bank, 2025 revision", "Banque mondiale, révision 2025" ] ] ], "note_en": "Four institutions measure roughly the same thing and agree: the DRC scores between a fifth and a half of the available marks on every scale in this table. The one exception is instructive. The country scores 85.5 on the extractive transparency initiative’s own validation, which is a high mark, and 41 on budget transparency at large. Publishing what the mines pay is a solved problem; publishing what the state does with it is not. The last line records a methodological loss rather than a Congolese one: the Bank discontinued percentile ranks in its 2025 revision of the governance indicators, so the six familiar percentiles cannot be shown for any country, and none is estimated here. The Ibrahim edition is dated 2024 but its reference year is 2023.", "note_fr": "Quatre institutions mesurent à peu près la même chose et s’accordent : la RD Congo obtient entre un cinquième et la moitié des points disponibles sur chacune des échelles de ce tableau. L’unique exception est instructive. Le pays obtient 85,5 à la validation de l’initiative pour la transparence des industries extractives, ce qui est une note élevée, et 41 à la transparence budgétaire d’ensemble. Publier ce que les mines versent est un problème résolu ; publier ce que l’État en fait ne l’est pas. La dernière ligne enregistre une perte méthodologique et non une perte congolaise : la Banque a abandonné les rangs centiles dans sa révision 2025 des indicateurs de gouvernance, de sorte que les six centiles familiers ne peuvent plus être montrés pour aucun pays, et qu’aucun n’est estimé ici. L’édition Ibrahim est datée de 2024 mais son année de référence est 2023." }, "cycle-regimes": { "name_en": "The real cycle by political period", "name_fr": "Le cycle réel par période politique", "source": "Calculs de l’auteur sur les séries de croissance du PIB réel et d’inflation publiées sur cette page (FMI, Banque mondiale, BCC, BAD).", "cols": [ [ "Period", "Période" ], [ "Years", "Années" ], [ "Mean growth, %", "Croissance moyenne, %" ], [ "Std. dev., points", "Écart-type, points" ], [ "Years of contraction", "Années de recul" ], [ "Median inflation, %", "Inflation médiane, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1, 1, 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Late Mobutu years, 1990-1996", "Fin de la période Mobutu, 1990-1996" ], 7, -6.3, 5.4, 6, 1987.0 ], [ [ "War and transition, 1997-2000", "Guerre et transition, 1997-2000" ], 4, -5.9, 2.4, 4, 242.5 ], [ [ "Reconstruction, 2001-2018", "Reconstruction, 2001-2018" ], 18, 5.8, 3.4, 1, 15.8 ], [ [ "Present administration, 2019-2026", "Administration actuelle, 2019-2026" ], 8, 5.4, 3.2, 0, 9.2 ] ], "note_en": "These are the author’s calculations on the two long series published on this page, real GDP growth and consumer price inflation, cut at the political breaks used by the figure « The real cycle, by political period » in the stylised facts tab. Three readings. The first two periods are one long contraction: the economy loses about six per cent a year for eleven years, and ten of those eleven years are years of decline. The turn comes in 2002, not with a change of head of state but with the end of the war and the resumption of external financing. Growth since has been of the same order under two administrations, 5.8 and 5.4 per cent, and the real difference between them is not the mean but the floor: one contraction in eighteen years, none in eight. The median is used for inflation rather than the mean, because a mean taken across a year at 23 863 per cent describes nothing. 2025 and 2026 are projections.", "note_fr": "Ce sont des calculs de l’auteur sur les deux longues séries publiées sur cette page, la croissance du PIB réel et l’inflation des prix à la consommation, découpées aux ruptures politiques retenues par la figure « Le cycle réel, par période politique » de l’onglet des faits stylisés. Trois lectures. Les deux premières périodes n’en font qu’une, celle d’une longue contraction : l’économie perd environ six pour cent par an pendant onze ans, et dix de ces onze années sont des années de recul. Le retournement vient en 2002, non avec un changement de chef de l’État mais avec la fin de la guerre et la reprise des financements extérieurs. La croissance est depuis du même ordre sous deux administrations, 5,8 et 5,4 pour cent, et la différence réelle entre elles n’est pas la moyenne mais le plancher : un recul en dix-huit ans, aucun en huit. La médiane sert pour l’inflation plutôt que la moyenne, parce qu’une moyenne prise sur une année à 23 863 pour cent ne décrit rien. 2025 et 2026 sont des projections." }, "mesures": { "name_en": "Measures set out for the authorities, with their deadlines", "name_fr": "Mesures énoncées à l’intention des autorités, avec leurs échéances", "source": "FMI, République démocratique du Congo : deuxième revue des accords FEC et FRD, rapport pays nº 26/2, janvier 2026. Banque mondiale, Macro Poverty Outlook, édition d’avril 2026, fiche République démocratique du Congo ; seuils de pauvreté en parités de pouvoir d’achat de 2021.", "cols": [ [ "Domain", "Domaine" ], [ "Measure as published", "Mesure telle que publiée" ], [ "Quantified target or date", "Cible chiffrée ou échéance" ] ], "chiffres": [], "rows": [ [ [ "Revenue", "Recettes" ], [ "The Fund calls for the revenue mobilisation plan to be accelerated: mining oversight, digitalisation, a standardised VAT invoice, a wider base", "Le Fonds demande d’accélérer le plan de mobilisation des recettes : contrôle minier, numérisation, facture normalisée de TVA, élargissement de l’assiette" ], [ "+0,7 % of GDP in 2026", "+0,7 % du PIB en 2026" ] ], [ [ "Revenue", "Recettes" ], [ "The Fund calls for the tax codes to be completed and provincial taxation harmonised", "Le Fonds demande d’achever les codes fiscaux et d’harmoniser la fiscalité provinciale" ], [ "End-2026", "Fin 2026" ] ], [ [ "Revenue", "Recettes" ], [ "The Fund calls for fuel pricing reform and the removal of industrial exemptions and subsidies", "Le Fonds demande la réforme du prix des carburants et la suppression des exonérations et subventions industrielles" ], [ "≈ 280 $m of tax expenditure in 2024", "≈ 280 M USD de dépense fiscale en 2024" ] ], [ [ "Public finances", "Finances publiques" ], [ "The Fund calls for a public sector reform strategy and a national wage policy, urgently", "Le Fonds demande sans délai une stratégie de réforme du secteur public et une politique salariale nationale" ], [ "Wage bill above 50 % of tax revenue", "Masse salariale au-dessus de 50 % des recettes fiscales" ] ], [ [ "Public finances", "Finances publiques" ], [ "The Fund calls for the treasury single account and for spending authorisation to be decentralised to pilot ministries", "Le Fonds demande le compte unique du Trésor et la décentralisation de l’ordonnancement vers des ministères pilotes" ], [ "February 2026", "Février 2026" ] ], [ [ "Public finances", "Finances publiques" ], [ "The Fund calls for recurrent security spending to leave the emergency procedure and return to standard procedure", "Le Fonds demande que les dépenses de sécurité récurrentes quittent la procédure d’urgence pour la procédure normale" ], [ "17,4 % of spending under emergency procedure in 2025", "17,4 % des dépenses en procédure d’urgence en 2025" ] ], [ [ "Public finances", "Finances publiques" ], [ "The Fund calls for domestic arrears to be certified and tracked more frequently", "Le Fonds demande une certification et un suivi plus fréquents des arriérés intérieurs" ], [ "4,98 $bn certified, 5,4 % of GDP", "4,98 Md USD certifiés, 5,4 % du PIB" ] ], [ [ "Money and reserves", "Monnaie et réserves" ], [ "The Fund calls for a careful, data-dependent easing cycle, held if the currency depreciates sharply", "Le Fonds demande un assouplissement prudent et guidé par les données, suspendu en cas de forte dépréciation" ], [ "BCC target of 7 % inflation", "Cible de 7 % d’inflation de la BCC" ] ], [ [ "Money and reserves", "Monnaie et réserves" ], [ "The Fund calls for faster conversion into dollars of the reserve requirements held in francs on foreign currency deposits", "Le Fonds demande une conversion plus rapide en dollars des réserves obligatoires détenues en francs sur les dépôts en devises" ], [ "Above the current 5 % a year", "Au-delà des 5 % par an actuels" ] ], [ [ "Governance", "Gouvernance" ], [ "The Fund calls the law creating the economic and financial criminal court critical, and the anti-corruption bill to be tabled", "Le Fonds juge critique la loi créant la cour pénale économique et financière, et le dépôt du projet de loi anticorruption" ], [ "June 2026", "Juin 2026" ] ], [ [ "Governance", "Gouvernance" ], [ "The Fund calls exit from the financial action task force grey list critical to correspondent banking", "Le Fonds juge la sortie de la liste grise du GAFI critique pour les relations de correspondance bancaire" ], [ "No date given", "Sans date" ] ], [ [ "Business climate", "Climat des affaires" ], [ "The Fund calls for the strategic business climate plan, a VAT refund action plan, and a working tax mediation commission", "Le Fonds demande le plan stratégique du climat des affaires, un plan d’action sur les remboursements de TVA et une commission de médiation fiscale opérationnelle" ], [ "April, March and June 2026", "Avril, mars et juin 2026" ] ], [ [ "Poverty", "Pauvreté" ], [ "The Bank sets out that resource revenue must be allocated more pro-poor, with more basic services, infrastructure and income opportunities", "La Banque énonce que la rente doit être affectée plus favorablement aux pauvres, avec davantage de services de base, d’infrastructures et de sources de revenu" ], [ "79,5 % poor at $3,00 a day by 2028", "79,5 % de pauvres à 3,00 USD par jour en 2028" ] ], [ [ "Security", "Sécurité" ], [ "The Bank sets out that governance must be strengthened, conflict resolved, security restored and illicit resource flows curbed", "La Banque énonce qu’il faut renforcer la gouvernance, résoudre le conflit, rétablir la sécurité et endiguer les flux illicites de ressources" ], [ "No date given", "Sans date" ] ] ], "note_en": "Nothing in this table is the author’s recommendation. Each line reports a measure that the Fund or the Bank has published, in the second review of the credit and sustainability arrangements of January 2026 and in the macro poverty outlook of April 2026, and the third column carries the target or the date the document itself attaches to it. The two institutions differ in a way worth seeing. The Fund writes a dated list of procedures; the Bank writes two sentences, both about who gets the money. They also differ on the facts: the Bank reads reserves at three months of imports and calls them stabilising, the Fund reads 11.7 weeks and calls them below adequate. Same country, same year, opposite verdict. Their deficit figures rest on different definitions and are not merged here.", "note_fr": "Rien dans ce tableau n’est une recommandation de l’auteur. Chaque ligne rapporte une mesure que le Fonds ou la Banque a publiée, dans la deuxième revue des accords de crédit et de durabilité de janvier 2026 et dans les perspectives macroéconomiques et de pauvreté d’avril 2026, et la troisième colonne porte la cible ou l’échéance que le document lui-même y attache. Les deux institutions diffèrent d’une manière qui mérite d’être vue. Le Fonds écrit une liste datée de procédures ; la Banque écrit deux phrases, toutes deux sur la question de savoir à qui va l’argent. Elles diffèrent aussi sur les faits : la Banque lit les réserves à trois mois d’importations et les juge stabilisantes, le Fonds lit 11,7 semaines et les juge en deçà du niveau adéquat. Même pays, même année, verdict inverse. Leurs chiffres de déficit reposent sur des définitions différentes et ne sont pas fondus ici." }, "sf-filtres-tab": { "name_en": "The stylised facts under five filters", "name_fr": "Les faits stylisés vus par cinq filtres", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Banque mondiale, FMI ; calculs de l’auteur.", "note_en": "Monthly data from 2013-01 to 2026-07, level series in logarithms. Each row applies one filter to output, consumption and investment, then measures the same four moments. The smoothing parameter of the Hodrick-Prescott filter is 14400, the monthly counterpart of the 1600 used on quarterly data under the rule of Ravn and Uhlig, which scales lambda with the fourth power of the observation frequency. The Hamilton regression projects the series two years ahead on twelve monthly lags, the transposition of the h = 8, p = 4 that Hamilton recommends for quarterly data. The two band pass filters isolate cycles of eighteen to ninety-six months, the range Burns and Mitchell gave the business cycle; the Baxter-King filter truncates its weights at thirty-six months and therefore loses three years at each end of the sample, while the Christiano-Fitzgerald filter keeps every month at the cost of weights that vary with the position in the sample. Correlations and relative volatilities are computed on the months where both series are defined. What survives the choice of filter is the shape of the cycle rather than its size: the standard deviation of output ranges from a quarter of a point to two and a half points depending on the filter, while investment stays between two and a half and three and a half times as volatile as output, consumption stays smoother than output, and both stay strongly procyclical. The autocorrelation column is high under every filter, but the real aggregates are published annually and interpolated to a monthly frequency: that column measures the interpolation as much as the economy and should not be used as evidence of persistence.", "note_fr": "Données mensuelles de 2013-01 à 2026-07, séries de niveau en logarithme. Chaque ligne applique un filtre à la production, à la consommation et à l’investissement, puis mesure les mêmes quatre moments. Le paramètre de lissage du filtre de Hodrick et Prescott vaut 14400, la contrepartie mensuelle du 1600 retenu sur données trimestrielles selon la règle de Ravn et Uhlig, qui fait varier lambda comme la puissance quatre de la fréquence d’observation. La régression de Hamilton projette la série à deux ans sur douze retards mensuels, transposition du couple h = 8, p = 4 que Hamilton recommande au trimestre. Les deux filtres passe-bande isolent les cycles de dix-huit à quatre-vingt-seize mois, l’intervalle que Burns et Mitchell assignaient au cycle des affaires ; celui de Baxter et King tronque ses poids à trente-six mois et perd donc trois ans à chaque extrémité de l’échantillon, tandis que celui de Christiano et Fitzgerald conserve tous les mois, au prix de poids qui varient avec la position dans l’échantillon. Les corrélations et les volatilités relatives sont calculées sur les mois où les deux séries sont définies. Ce qui résiste au choix du filtre est la forme du cycle, non son amplitude : l’écart-type de la production va d’un quart de point à deux points et demi selon le filtre, tandis que l’investissement reste deux fois et demie à trois fois et demie plus volatil que la production, que la consommation reste plus lisse qu’elle et que l’un et l’autre restent nettement procycliques. La colonne d’autocorrélation est élevée sous tous les filtres, mais les agrégats réels sont publiés à fréquence annuelle puis mensualisés par interpolation : cette colonne mesure l’interpolation autant que l’économie et ne saurait servir de preuve de persistance.", "chiffres": [ 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2 ], "cols": [ [ "Filter", "Filtre" ], [ "Output std. dev., %", "Écart-type production, %" ], [ "Cons. / output", "Consommation / production" ], [ "Invest. / output", "Investissement / production" ], [ "Corr. cons.-output", "Corr. consommation-production" ], [ "Corr. invest.-output", "Corr. investissement-production" ], [ "Autocorr. (1)", "Autocorr. (1)" ] ], "rows": [ [ [ "Hodrick-Prescott, λ = 14400", "Hodrick et Prescott, λ = 14400" ], 0.89, 0.73, 3.01, 0.98, 0.89, 0.98 ], [ [ "Hamilton regression, h = 24, p = 12", "Régression de Hamilton, h = 24, p = 12" ], 2.55, 0.68, 2.65, 0.99, 0.92, 0.95 ], [ [ "Baxter-King band pass, 18-96 months", "Passe-bande de Baxter et King, 18-96 mois" ], 1.2, 0.62, 3.32, 1.0, 0.91, 0.99 ], [ [ "Christiano-Fitzgerald band pass, 18-96 months", "Passe-bande de Christiano et Fitzgerald, 18-96 mois" ], 1.36, 0.73, 2.6, 0.99, 0.87, 0.99 ], [ [ "First difference", "Différence première" ], 0.23, 0.76, 2.5, 0.98, 0.87, 0.92 ] ] }, "sante-ebola-suivi": { "name_en": "The seventeenth Ebola outbreak, latest reading", "name_fr": "La dix-septième épidémie d’Ebola, dernier relevé", "source": "OMS, bulletin d’épidémie 2026-DON617, « Maladie à virus Bundibugyo — République démocratique du Congo », 10 septembre 2026 ; chiffres arrêtés au 7 septembre 2026, sauf la vaccination, arrêtée au 6 septembre.", "cols": [ [ "Reading", "Relevé" ], [ "Number", "Nombre" ], [ "Scope and date", "Périmètre et date" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Confirmed cases, DR Congo", "Cas confirmés, RD Congo" ], 6757, [ "as of 7 September 2026", "au 7 septembre 2026" ] ], [ [ "Deaths among confirmed cases, DR Congo", "Décès parmi les cas confirmés, RD Congo" ], 3267, [ "crude case fatality ratio of 48.3 per cent", "létalité brute de 48,3 pour cent" ] ], [ [ "Patients recovered, DR Congo", "Patients guéris, RD Congo" ], 1590, [ "as of 7 September 2026", "au 7 septembre 2026" ] ], [ [ "Confirmed cases in the last twenty-four hours", "Cas confirmés des vingt-quatre dernières heures" ], 71, [ "from 17 health zones", "dans 17 zones de santé" ] ], [ [ "Confirmed cases added since the bulletin of 28 August", "Cas confirmés ajoutés depuis le bulletin du 28 août" ], 963, [ "twelve days", "douze jours" ] ], [ [ "Deaths added since the bulletin of 28 August", "Décès ajoutés depuis le bulletin du 28 août" ], 481, [ "twelve days", "douze jours" ] ], [ [ "Contacts to be followed up", "Contacts à suivre" ], 24719, [ "in the twenty-four hours to 7 September", "dans les vingt-quatre heures au 7 septembre" ] ], [ [ "Contacts actually seen", "Contacts effectivement vus" ], 21359, [ "85.3 per cent of those to be followed up", "85,3 pour cent des contacts à suivre" ] ], [ [ "People vaccinated", "Personnes vaccinées" ], 2007, [ "in six health zones of three provinces, as of 6 September", "dans six zones de santé de trois provinces, au 6 septembre" ] ], [ [ "Provinces affected", "Provinces touchées" ], 6, [ "Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uélé, Tshopo, Bas-Uélé", "Ituri, Nord-Kivu, Sud-Kivu, Haut-Uélé, Tshopo, Bas-Uélé" ] ], [ [ "Health zones affected", "Zones de santé touchées" ], 61, [ "since the outbreak began", "depuis le début de l’épidémie" ] ], [ [ "Health zones with a case in the last 21 days", "Zones de santé avec un cas dans les 21 derniers jours" ], 51, [ "as of 7 September 2026", "au 7 septembre 2026" ] ], [ [ "Confirmed cases, Uganda", "Cas confirmés, Ouganda" ], 20, [ "18 recovered", "18 guéris" ] ], [ [ "Deaths, Uganda", "Décès, Ouganda" ], 2, [ "as of 7 September 2026", "au 7 septembre 2026" ] ], [ [ "Confirmed cases, France", "Cas confirmés, France" ], 1, [ "imported 24 June, discharged 4 July, no secondary transmission", "importé le 24 juin, sorti le 4 juillet, aucune transmission secondaire" ] ], [ [ "Confirmed cases, all countries", "Cas confirmés, tous pays" ], 6778, [ "including two DR Congo cases treated in Germany", "dont deux cas congolais traités en Allemagne" ] ], [ [ "Deaths, all countries", "Décès, tous pays" ], 3269, [ "including two in Uganda", "dont deux en Ouganda" ] ], [ [ "Patients recovered, all countries", "Patients guéris, tous pays" ], 1611, [ "as of 7 September 2026", "au 7 septembre 2026" ] ] ], "note_en": "This outbreak is the largest ever recorded in the country: it has passed the outbreak of 2018 to 2020, which the World Health Organization counts at 3 317 confirmed cases, by more than double, and it is expanding faster than any previous Ebola outbreak there. It was declared on 15 May 2026 by the Ministry of Public Health, Hygiene and Social Welfare and was determined a public health emergency of international concern on 17 May. Three cautions belong with the figures. The Organization attributes part of the increase to strengthened surveillance and laboratory capacity, but says that most of it reflects the expansion of the outbreak itself. There is still no licensed vaccine and no specific treatment for the Bundibugyo virus: the 2 007 people vaccinated by 6 September received a product that is not approved for this virus, and the PARTNERS treatment trial had enrolled more than three hundred confirmed cases. And the bulletins of 28 August and 10 September no longer publish the count of infected health workers, which the bulletin of 14 August put at 155 at least, with 45 deaths, as of 9 August; those lines have been removed rather than carried forward. In the two previous Bundibugyo outbreaks the published case fatality ratios were 30 per cent in Uganda in 2007 and 50 per cent in the DR Congo in 2012.", "note_fr": "Cette épidémie est la plus étendue jamais enregistrée dans le pays : elle a plus que doublé celle de 2018 à 2020, que l’Organisation mondiale de la santé chiffre à 3 317 cas confirmés, et elle s’étend plus vite qu’aucune épidémie d’Ebola avant elle. Elle a été déclarée le 15 mai 2026 par le ministère de la Santé publique, de l’Hygiène et de la Prévoyance sociale, et qualifiée d’urgence de santé publique de portée internationale le 17 mai. Trois précautions accompagnent les chiffres. L’Organisation attribue une partie de la hausse au renforcement de la surveillance et de la capacité de laboratoire, mais dit que l’essentiel tient à l’extension de l’épidémie elle-même. Il n’existe toujours ni vaccin homologué ni traitement spécifique contre le virus Bundibugyo : les 2 007 personnes vaccinées au 6 septembre l’ont été avec un produit qui n’est pas homologué contre ce virus, et l’essai thérapeutique PARTNERS avait recruté plus de trois cents cas confirmés. Enfin, les bulletins du 28 août et du 10 septembre ne publient plus le nombre de soignants infectés, que le bulletin du 14 août chiffrait à au moins 155, dont 45 décès, au 9 août ; ces lignes ont été retirées plutôt que reportées. Lors des deux épidémies Bundibugyo précédentes, les létalités publiées étaient de 30 pour cent en Ouganda en 2007 et de 50 pour cent en RD Congo en 2012." }, "sante-ebola-provinces": { "name_en": "The seventeenth outbreak by province", "name_fr": "La dix-septième épidémie par province", "source": "OMS, bulletin d’épidémie 2026-DON617, « Maladie à virus Bundibugyo — République démocratique du Congo », 10 septembre 2026 ; chiffres arrêtés au 7 septembre 2026, sauf la vaccination, arrêtée au 6 septembre.", "cols": [ [ "Province", "Province" ], [ "Health zones affected", "Zones de santé touchées" ], [ "Health zones in the province", "Zones de santé de la province" ], [ "Confirmed cases", "Cas confirmés" ], [ "Confirmed cases, last 21 days", "Cas confirmés, 21 derniers jours" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "rows": [ [ "Ituri", 28, 36, 5406, 1114 ], [ [ "North Kivu", "Nord-Kivu" ], 16, 34, 1066, 453 ], [ "Tshopo", 7, 23, "—", "—" ], [ "Haut-Uélé", 6, 13, "—", "—" ], [ "Bas-Uélé", 3, 11, "—", "—" ], [ [ "South Kivu", "Sud-Kivu" ], 1, 34, "—", 0 ], [ [ "The six provinces", "Les six provinces" ], 61, "—", 6757, "—" ] ], "note_en": "Ituri carries 80 per cent of the confirmed cases, but the centre of gravity is shifting: North Kivu, with 1 066 cases, has the highest case fatality ratio of the six provinces, 65.4 per cent, and recorded 453 of its cases in the last twenty-one days alone. The bulletin publishes case counts province by province for Ituri and North Kivu only; for the other four the dash means that the figure is not in the source, not that it is zero. South Kivu has reported no case since 29 May 2026, hence the published zero. Kayna, in North Kivu, is the newest health zone to report a case. The second column counts the health zones where a case has been confirmed, the third the health zones the province contains, so the two together say how far the outbreak has room to run. Of the sixty-one zones touched, fifty-one had a case in the last twenty-one days.", "note_fr": "L’Ituri porte 80 pour cent des cas confirmés, mais le centre de gravité se déplace : le Nord-Kivu, avec 1 066 cas, a la létalité la plus élevée des six provinces, 65,4 pour cent, et a enregistré 453 de ses cas dans les seuls vingt et un derniers jours. Le bulletin ne publie le décompte des cas province par province que pour l’Ituri et le Nord-Kivu ; pour les quatre autres, le tiret signifie que le chiffre n’est pas dans la source, non qu’il est nul. Le Sud-Kivu n’a signalé aucun cas depuis le 29 mai 2026, d’où le zéro publié. Kayna, au Nord-Kivu, est la dernière zone de santé à avoir signalé un cas. La deuxième colonne compte les zones de santé où un cas a été confirmé, la troisième celles que la province compte : les deux ensemble disent ce qu’il reste d’espace à l’épidémie. Des soixante et une zones touchées, cinquante et une ont eu un cas dans les vingt et un derniers jours." }, "sante-ebola-zones": { "name_en": "Ituri, the health zones the bulletin names", "name_fr": "Ituri, les zones de santé que le bulletin nomme", "source": "OMS, bulletin d’épidémie 2026-DON614, « Maladie à virus Bundibugyo — République démocratique du Congo », 1er août 2026, révisé le 3 août 2026 ; source des données, Centre des opérations d’urgences de santé publique (COUSP-RDC), chiffres arrêtés au 30 juillet 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Health zone", "Zone de santé" ], [ "Confirmed cases", "Cas confirmés" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0 ], "rows": [ [ "Bunia", 880 ], [ "Rwampara", 627 ], [ "Mongbwalu", 541 ], [ "Nizi", 377 ], [ "Lita", 131 ], [ "Nyankunde", 114 ] ], "note_en": "This table stops on 30 July 2026, the cut-off of the bulletin named below it: no later bulletin has named a health zone, and the table is left at its own date rather than mixed with a more recent one. These are the six health zones of Ituri with the highest counts, and the only six the bulletin names. Ituri had 3 176 confirmed cases at that date, spread over twenty-eight of its thirty-six health zones, so the remainder is distributed across the twenty-two others, which the source does not enumerate. Mongbwalu is where the outbreak began: it was confined to that single health zone before spreading to five provinces in two months, and to a sixth in three.", "note_fr": "Ce tableau s’arrête au 30 juillet 2026, date d’arrêt du bulletin nommé au-dessous : aucun bulletin postérieur n’a nommé de zone de santé, et le tableau est laissé à sa propre date plutôt que mêlé à une plus récente. Ce sont les six zones de santé de l’Ituri aux décomptes les plus élevés, et les six seules que le bulletin nomme. L’Ituri comptait à cette date 3 176 cas confirmés répartis sur vingt-huit de ses trente-six zones de santé : le reste se distribue donc sur les vingt-deux autres, que la source n’énumère pas. Mongbwalu est le point de départ de l’épidémie : celle-ci y était confinée avant de gagner cinq provinces en deux mois, et une sixième en trois." }, "sante-ebola-histoire": { "name_en": "The seventeen Ebola outbreaks, 1976 to 2026", "name_fr": "Les dix-sept épidémies d’Ebola, de 1976 à 2026", "source": "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, « History of Ebola Outbreaks », page revue le 29 mai 2026, pour les seize premières épidémies ; OMS, bulletin d’épidémie 2026-DON617 du 10 septembre 2026, pour la dix-septième.", "cols": [ [ "Outbreak", "Épidémie" ], [ "Years", "Années" ], [ "Province and area", "Province et zone" ], [ "Virus", "Virus" ], [ "Cases", "Cas" ], [ "Deaths", "Décès" ], [ "Fatal cases, %", "Létalité, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "1st", "1re" ], "1976", [ "Équateur, Yambuku", "Équateur, Yambuku" ], "Zaire", 318, 280, 88 ], [ [ "2nd", "2e" ], "1977", [ "Équateur, Tandala", "Équateur, Tandala" ], "Zaire", 1, 1, 100 ], [ [ "3rd", "3e" ], "1995", "Kikwit", "Zaire", 315, 254, 81 ], [ [ "4th", "4e" ], "2007", [ "Kasaï-Occidental, Luebo and Mweka", "Kasaï-Occidental, Luebo et Mweka" ], "Zaire", 264, 187, 71 ], [ [ "5th", "5e" ], "2008-2009", [ "Kasaï-Occidental, Mweka and Luebo", "Kasaï-Occidental, Mweka et Luebo" ], "Zaire", 32, 15, 47 ], [ [ "6th", "6e" ], "2012", [ "Orientale, Isiro", "Orientale, Isiro" ], "Bundibugyo", 62, 34, 55 ], [ [ "7th", "7e" ], "2014", [ "Équateur, Boende", "Équateur, Boende" ], "Zaire", 69, 49, 71 ], [ [ "8th", "8e" ], "2017", "Likati", "Zaire", 8, 4, 50 ], [ [ "9th", "9e" ], "2018", [ "Équateur, Bikoro", "Équateur, Bikoro" ], "Zaire", 54, 33, 61 ], [ [ "10th", "10e" ], "2018-2020", [ "North Kivu, Ituri and South Kivu", "Nord-Kivu, Ituri et Sud-Kivu" ], "Zaire", 3470, 2287, 66 ], [ [ "11th", "11e" ], "2020", [ "Équateur, Mbandaka", "Équateur, Mbandaka" ], "Zaire", 130, 55, 42.3 ], [ [ "12th", "12e" ], "2021", [ "North Kivu, Biena", "Nord-Kivu, Biena" ], "Zaire", 12, 6, 50 ], [ [ "13th", "13e" ], "2021", [ "North Kivu, Beni", "Nord-Kivu, Beni" ], "Zaire", 11, 9, 82 ], [ [ "14th", "14e" ], "2022", [ "Équateur, Mbandaka", "Équateur, Mbandaka" ], "Zaire", 5, 5, 100 ], [ [ "15th", "15e" ], "2022", [ "North Kivu, Beni", "Nord-Kivu, Beni" ], "Zaire", 1, 1, 100 ], [ [ "16th", "16e" ], "2025", [ "Kasaï, Bulape", "Kasaï, Bulape" ], "Zaire", 64, 45, 70 ], [ [ "17th", "17e" ], "2026", [ "Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uélé, Tshopo, Bas-Uélé", "Ituri, Nord-Kivu, Sud-Kivu, Haut-Uélé, Tshopo, Bas-Uélé" ], "Bundibugyo", 6757, 3267, 48.3 ] ], "note_en": "Fifty years in one table. The case counts and the fatality ratios are those the source publishes; none is recomputed here, which is why the ratios do not always follow exactly from the two columns to their left. Two rows need a word. The tenth outbreak is given at 3 470 cases because the American count includes probable and suspected cases; the World Health Organization counts 3 317 confirmed for the same episode, and it is against that confirmed figure that the outbreak now under way, at 6 757 confirmed, is described as the largest the country has known. The sixteenth is likewise given at 64 cases including probable ones. Fifteen of the seventeen outbreaks were caused by the Zaire virus; only the sixth and the seventeenth were caused by the Bundibugyo virus, for which no vaccine exists. The last column is worth reading on its own: an outbreak caught in one health zone kills a handful of people, one that reaches a city kills thousands.", "note_fr": "Cinquante ans en un tableau. Les décomptes de cas et les létalités sont ceux que publie la source ; aucun n’est recalculé ici, ce qui explique que les taux ne se déduisent pas toujours exactement des deux colonnes qui les précèdent. Deux lignes appellent un mot. La dixième épidémie est portée à 3 470 cas parce que le décompte américain inclut les cas probables et suspects ; l’Organisation mondiale de la santé retient 3 317 cas confirmés pour le même épisode, et c’est à ce chiffre de cas confirmés que l’épidémie en cours, à 6 757 cas confirmés, est comparée lorsqu’on la dit la plus étendue que le pays ait connue. La seizième est de même portée à 64 cas, cas probables inclus. Quinze des dix-sept épidémies sont dues au virus Zaïre ; seules la sixième et la dix-septième sont dues au virus Bundibugyo, contre lequel il n’existe pas de vaccin. La dernière colonne se lit pour elle-même : une épidémie arrêtée dans une seule zone de santé tue quelques personnes, une épidémie qui atteint une ville en tue des milliers." }, "sante-ebola-bulletins": { "name_en": "The outbreak bulletin by bulletin, as the World Health Organization reported it", "name_fr": "L’épidémie bulletin par bulletin, telle que l’Organisation mondiale de la santé l’a rapportée", "source": "OMS, les douze bulletins d’épidémie de la série, 2026-DON602 du 16 mai 2026 à 2026-DON617 du 10 septembre 2026. Chaque ligne est citée du bulletin qui la porte ; aucune n’est calculée à partir d’une autre.", "cols": [ [ "Bulletin", "Bulletin" ], [ "Published", "Paru le" ], [ "Figures as of", "Chiffres arrêtés au" ], [ "Confirmed cases", "Cas confirmés" ], [ "Deaths", "Décès" ], [ "Case fatality ratio as printed, %", "Létalité telle qu’imprimée, %" ], [ "Recovered", "Guéris" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0 ], "rows": [ [ "2026-DON602", [ "16 May 2026", "16 mai 2026" ], [ "15 May 2026", "15 mai 2026" ], "—", 4, "—", "—" ], [ "2026-DON603", [ "21 May 2026", "21 mai 2026" ], [ "21 May 2026", "21 mai 2026" ], 83, 9, 11, "—" ], [ "2026-DON605", [ "29 May 2026", "29 mai 2026" ], [ "27 May 2026", "27 mai 2026" ], 125, 17, 14, "—" ], [ "2026-DON606", [ "8 June 2026", "8 juin 2026" ], [ "6 June 2026", "6 juin 2026" ], 515, 91, 17.7, 12 ], [ "2026-DON607", [ "13 June 2026", "13 juin 2026" ], [ "10 June 2026", "10 juin 2026" ], 676, 136, 20.1, 32 ], [ "2026-DON608", [ "19 June 2026", "19 juin 2026" ], [ "17 June 2026", "17 juin 2026" ], 896, 232, 26, 78 ], [ "2026-DON612", [ "3 July 2026", "3 juillet 2026" ], [ "1 July 2026", "1er juillet 2026" ], 1460, 452, 30.9, 213 ], [ "2026-DON613", [ "17 July 2026", "17 juillet 2026" ], [ "15 July 2026", "15 juillet 2026" ], 2124, 828, 39, 390 ], [ "2026-DON614", [ "1 August 2026", "1er août 2026" ], [ "30 July 2026", "30 juillet 2026" ], 3605, 1587, 44, 651 ], [ "2026-DON615", [ "14 August 2026", "14 août 2026" ], [ "12 August 2026", "12 août 2026" ], 4665, 2184, 46.8, 965 ], [ "2026-DON616", [ "28 August 2026", "28 août 2026" ], [ "26 August 2026", "26 août 2026" ], 5794, 2786, 48.1, 1293 ], [ "2026-DON617", [ "10 September 2026", "10 septembre 2026" ], [ "7 September 2026", "7 septembre 2026" ], 6757, 3267, 48.3, 1590 ] ], "note_en": "This is the table that makes the outbreak legible as a movement rather than a snapshot: one line per bulletin, each figure taken from the bulletin that carries it. Nothing here is carried over from a neighbouring issue and nothing is computed. The case fatality ratio is quoted exactly as the World Health Organization prints it, which is why it does not always follow from the two columns beside it; the Organization revises its denominator as investigations close. The figures are for the DR Congo alone. The first bulletin states no confirmed total; it reports suspected cases, and the four deaths shown are the four it attributes to confirmed cases, so that cell carries a dash. The bulletins of 13 and 19 June both warn that their own ratio is probably an underestimate, because deaths that occurred before the outbreak was declared were still under investigation. The numbering has gaps because the Disease Outbreak News series is shared with other events; the twelve bulletins listed here are the whole of the series for this outbreak. The bulletin of 1 August was revised on 3 August, and it is the revised text that is quoted.", "note_fr": "C’est ce tableau qui rend l’épidémie lisible comme un mouvement et non comme un instantané : une ligne par bulletin, chaque chiffre pris dans le bulletin qui le porte. Rien n’est repris d’un numéro voisin, rien n’est calculé. La létalité est citée exactement comme l’Organisation mondiale de la santé l’imprime, ce qui explique qu’elle ne découle pas toujours des deux colonnes qui la précèdent : l’Organisation révise son dénominateur à mesure que les enquêtes se closent. Les chiffres portent sur la seule RD Congo. Le premier bulletin ne donne aucun total de cas confirmés ; il compte des cas suspects, et les quatre décès portés ici sont les quatre qu’il rattache à des cas confirmés, d’où le tiret. Les bulletins des 13 et 19 juin avertissent l’un et l’autre que leur propre taux est vraisemblablement sous-estimé, des décès survenus avant la déclaration de l’épidémie restant à instruire. La numérotation présente des trous parce que la série des bulletins d’épidémie est partagée avec d’autres événements ; les douze bulletins recensés ici sont toute la série de cette épidémie. Le bulletin du 1er août a été révisé le 3 août, et c’est le texte révisé qui est cité." }, "prix-hist-mensuel": { "name_en": "Commodity prices, complete monthly history", "name_fr": "Cours des matières premières, historique mensuel complet", "source": "World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, monthly historical workbook", "cols": [ [ "Month", "Mois" ], [ "Copper, $/t", "Cuivre, $/t" ], [ "Tin, $/t", "Étain, $/t" ], [ "Zinc, $/t", "Zinc, $/t" ], [ "Gold, $/toz", "Or, $/once" ], [ "Brent, $/bbl", "Brent, $/baril" ], [ "Cocoa, $/kg", "Cacao, $/kg" ], [ "Coffee arabica, $/kg", "Café arabica, $/kg" ], [ "Coffee robusta, $/kg", "Café robusta, $/kg" ], [ "Palm oil, $/t", "Huile de palme, $/t" ], [ "Rubber TSR20, $/kg", "Caoutchouc TSR20, $/kg" ], [ "Logs Africa, $/cum", "Grumes Afrique, $/m3" ], [ "Precious metals, 2010=100", "Métaux précieux, 2010=100" ] ], "rows": [ [ "1960-01", 715.0, 2180.0, 261.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.63, 0.94, 0.7, 233.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-02", 728.0, 2180.0, 245.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.61, 0.95, 0.69, 229.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-03", 685.0, 2174.0, 249.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.58, 0.93, 0.69, 225.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-04", 723.0, 2178.0, 255.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.6, 0.93, 0.68, 225.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-05", 685.0, 2163.0, 254.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.6, 0.92, 0.69, 225.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-06", 692.0, 2185.0, 250.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.59, 0.91, 0.7, 219.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-07", 702.0, 2249.0, 249.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.6, 0.92, 0.69, 221.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-08", 676.0, 2205.0, 241.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.59, 0.93, 0.7, 225.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-09", 647.0, 2227.0, 240.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.58, 0.92, 0.7, 224.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-10", 613.0, 2227.0, 242.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.59, 0.92, 0.71, 222.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-11", 642.0, 2205.0, 241.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.57, 0.91, 0.71, 222.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960-12", 637.0, 2189.0, 228.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.52, 0.9, 0.7, 223.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1961-01", 607.0, 2163.0, 218.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.49, 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$/t", "Huile de palme, $/t" ], [ "Rubber TSR20, $/kg", "Caoutchouc TSR20, $/kg" ], [ "Logs Africa, $/cum", "Grumes Afrique, $/m3" ], [ "Precious metals, 2010=100", "Métaux précieux, 2010=100" ] ], "rows": [ [ "1960Q1", 709.33, 2178.0, 251.67, 35.0, 1.6, 0.6067, 0.94, 0.6933, 229.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960Q2", 700.0, 2175.33, 253.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.5967, 0.92, 0.69, 223.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960Q3", 675.0, 2227.0, 243.33, 35.0, 1.6, 0.59, 0.9233, 0.6967, 223.33, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1960Q4", 630.67, 2207.0, 237.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.56, 0.91, 0.7067, 222.33, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1961Q1", 615.0, 2199.67, 226.33, 35.0, 1.6, 0.48, 0.9133, 0.6767, 227.33, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1961Q2", 650.67, 2384.0, 225.33, 35.0, 1.6, 0.47, 0.8933, 0.6633, 233.33, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1961Q3", 634.0, 2585.33, 210.0, 35.0, 1.6, 0.4767, 0.89, 0.67, 227.0, null, null, 3.3 ], [ "1961Q4", 632.33, 2631.0, 195.67, 35.0, 1.6, 0.4933, 0.8833, 0.67, 226.0, null, null, 3.3333 ], [ "1962Q1", 643.67, 2628.67, 191.67, 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26181.67, 2539.67, 1978.33, 78.2333, 3.0033, 4.8267, 2.72, 918.67, 1.3433, 381.23, 150.53 ], [ "2023Q3", 8367.67, 26797.33, 2436.0, 1928.67, 86.7667, 3.4867, 4.1467, 2.7633, 856.67, 1.3367, 381.0, 146.57 ], [ "2023Q4", 8175.67, 24434.67, 2498.33, 1975.33, 84.0667, 3.9567, 4.35, 2.77, 816.0, 1.4633, 376.6, 149.17 ], [ "2024Q1", 8444.33, 26218.0, 2445.33, 2071.67, 83.1333, 5.6833, 4.56, 3.4333, 881.67, 1.58, 379.93, 155.4 ], [ "2024Q2", 9750.33, 32262.0, 2833.67, 2336.0, 84.9, 8.5167, 5.2767, 4.2567, 889.67, 1.69, 376.8, 177.47 ], [ "2024Q3", 9198.0, 31608.0, 2776.0, 2479.67, 80.1667, 6.83, 5.85, 4.93, 937.33, 1.7667, 384.57, 187.17 ], [ "2024Q4", 9175.33, 30177.33, 3048.0, 2663.0, 74.6333, 8.29, 6.7967, 5.03, 1145.33, 1.9767, 373.4, 200.67 ], [ "2025Q1", 9354.0, 31831.0, 2836.0, 2862.67, 75.6667, 9.5633, 8.5933, 5.6367, 1068.33, 1.9733, 368.4, 213.8 ], [ "2025Q2", 9515.0, 32363.33, 2640.33, 3293.33, 67.8, 8.5133, 8.4733, 5.0, 945.67, 1.6733, 397.03, 242.97 ], [ "2025Q3", 9808.33, 33976.0, 2828.33, 3458.67, 69.0667, 7.3333, 8.03, 4.2467, 1013.0, 1.71, 408.93, 259.67 ], [ "2025Q4", 11112.33, 38065.0, 3165.67, 4151.33, 63.6667, 5.78, 8.7833, 4.56, 1000.33, 1.72, 407.23, 317.93 ], [ "2026Q1", 12830.67, 48518.67, 3239.67, 4876.33, 80.5333, 3.9333, 7.49, 4.0333, 1081.33, 1.9067, 409.73, 393.07 ], [ "2026Q2", 13348.67, 51802.0, 3461.67, 4512.0, 104.43, 3.9867, 7.0133, 3.6767, 1163.67, 2.1733, 407.07, 359.57 ], [ "2026Q3", 14114.33, 54022.67, 3831.67, 4267.67, 97.0333, 5.8267, 7.7133, 3.9133, 1148.33, 2.2633, 402.77, 333.67 ] ], "note": "" }, "prix-hist-annuel": { "name_en": "Commodity prices, complete annual history", "name_fr": "Cours des matières premières, historique annuel complet", "source": "World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, monthly historical workbook", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Copper, $/t", "Cuivre, $/t" ], [ "Tin, $/t", "Étain, $/t" ], [ "Zinc, $/t", "Zinc, $/t" ], [ "Gold, $/toz", "Or, $/once" ], [ "Brent, $/bbl", "Brent, $/baril" ], [ "Cocoa, $/kg", "Cacao, $/kg" ], [ "Coffee arabica, $/kg", "Café arabica, $/kg" ], [ "Coffee robusta, $/kg", "Café robusta, $/kg" ], [ "Palm oil, $/t", "Huile de palme, $/t" ], [ "Rubber TSR20, $/kg", "Caoutchouc TSR20, $/kg" ], [ "Logs Africa, $/cum", "Grumes Afrique, $/m3" ], [ "Precious metals, 2010=100", "Métaux précieux, 2010=100" ] ], "rows": [ [ 1960, 678.75, 2196.83, 246.25, 35.0, 1.6, 0.5883, 0.9233, 0.6967, 224.42, null, null, 3.3 ], [ 1961, 633.0, 2450.0, 214.33, 35.0, 1.6, 0.48, 0.895, 0.67, 228.42, null, null, 3.3083 ], [ 1962, 645.42, 2471.42, 186.08, 35.0, 1.5, 0.4575, 0.8333, 0.6808, 216.17, null, null, 3.4333 ], [ 1963, 646.33, 2507.67, 211.5, 35.0, 1.5, 0.5508, 0.8058, 0.6233, 222.58, null, null, 3.6 ], [ 1964, 969.67, 3412.75, 326.5, 35.0, 1.5, 0.5067, 1.0108, 0.7875, 239.58, null, null, 3.6 ], [ 1965, 1292.92, 3890.92, 311.25, 35.0, 1.4, 0.3658, 1.0, 0.6792, 272.58, null, null, 3.6 ], [ 1966, 1531.5, 3573.42, 281.33, 35.0, 1.4, 0.5175, 0.9283, 0.74, 235.67, null, null, 3.6 ], [ 1967, 1134.67, 3308.17, 273.33, 35.0, 1.3, 0.5992, 0.8642, 0.74, 223.5, null, null, 3.9083 ], [ 1968, 1242.0, 3126.75, 263.0, 38.9167, 1.3, 0.7192, 0.8675, 0.7467, 168.75, null, null, 4.7333 ], [ 1969, 1467.25, 3427.42, 286.42, 40.9167, 1.3, 0.8975, 0.8767, 0.7308, 181.0, null, null, 4.55 ], [ 1970, 1415.75, 3673.58, 295.75, 35.8333, 1.2, 0.68, 1.1475, 0.9133, 260.0, null, 43.0, 4.2333 ], [ 1971, 1081.33, 3512.08, 309.5, 40.9167, 1.65, 0.54, 0.9908, 0.9317, 260.92, null, 44.4, 4.2917 ], [ 1972, 1057.67, 3740.08, 377.75, 58.1667, 1.85, 0.64, 1.1108, 0.9942, 217.33, null, 52.5, 5.5417 ], [ 1973, 1785.33, 4802.33, 845.33, 97.3333, 2.825, 1.13, 1.3733, 1.0992, 377.5, null, 133.5, 8.8917 ], [ 1974, 2058.58, 8184.5, 1239.58, 159.25, 10.975, 1.56, 1.4525, 1.2925, 669.17, null, 120.4, 14.9083 ], [ 1975, 1234.75, 6876.58, 745.17, 160.92, 10.425, 1.25, 1.4417, 1.345, 434.17, null, 126.6, 14.7167 ], [ 1976, 1400.75, 7585.58, 711.42, 124.83, 11.625, 2.0458, 3.1475, 2.8142, 406.75, null, 142.33, 12.3417 ], [ 1977, 1308.75, 10804.75, 589.67, 147.67, 12.55, 3.7883, 5.17, 4.9325, 530.08, null, 158.78, 14.0667 ], [ 1978, 1364.83, 12875.33, 593.92, 193.17, 12.9333, 3.4033, 3.5908, 3.2508, 600.33, null, 191.28, 17.8917 ], [ 1979, 1985.25, 15447.5, 741.67, 306.75, 32.125, 3.2942, 3.825, 3.6517, 653.83, null, 211.53, 30.8167 ], [ 1980, 2182.08, 16774.83, 761.25, 607.83, 37.9, 2.6042, 3.4675, 3.2425, 583.67, null, 251.69, 59.5417 ], [ 1981, 1741.83, 14159.25, 845.67, 459.75, 36.675, 2.0792, 2.8675, 2.2408, 570.67, null, 212.81, 40.0083 ], [ 1982, 1480.58, 12825.92, 745.0, 375.75, 33.4167, 1.7367, 3.0867, 2.425, 445.08, null, 175.92, 31.9917 ], [ 1983, 1591.92, 12988.08, 764.33, 422.58, 29.85, 2.1208, 2.9125, 2.7317, 501.5, null, 160.77, 38.45 ], [ 1984, 1377.5, 12233.5, 922.0, 360.5, 28.8083, 2.3958, 3.1892, 3.0367, 728.83, null, 175.65, 31.275 ], [ 1985, 1417.5, 11539.0, 783.5, 318.0, 27.3583, 2.2542, 3.2317, 2.6483, 500.58, null, 173.88, 26.5333 ], [ 1986, 1373.83, 6161.33, 754.0, 367.75, 14.8, 2.07, 4.2908, 3.245, 257.0, null, 221.64, 29.425 ], [ 1987, 1782.5, 6664.75, 798.83, 446.42, 18.3583, 1.9958, 2.505, 2.2483, 342.58, null, 258.93, 36.0833 ], [ 1988, 2601.75, 7051.75, 1241.42, 437.08, 15.0, 1.5842, 3.0325, 2.0783, 437.17, null, 271.32, 34.9667 ], [ 1989, 2848.33, 8534.58, 1658.75, 381.42, 18.2417, 1.2408, 2.3875, 1.6542, 350.42, null, 273.77, 30.4333 ], [ 1990, 2661.5, 6085.33, 1513.58, 383.5, 23.7083, 1.2675, 1.9733, 1.1808, 289.75, null, 343.47, 29.8583 ], [ 1991, 2338.83, 5595.17, 1117.0, 362.25, 20.0917, 1.1942, 1.8733, 1.0708, 339.0, null, 316.06, 27.5833 ], [ 1992, 2281.08, 6101.0, 1239.83, 343.67, 19.3417, 1.0992, 1.4108, 0.94, 393.5, null, 331.27, 26.2667 ], [ 1993, 1913.08, 5161.25, 961.92, 359.67, 17.0417, 1.1183, 1.56, 1.1583, 377.75, null, 310.32, 27.6667 ], [ 1994, 2307.33, 5463.83, 997.83, 383.92, 15.85, 1.3967, 3.3083, 2.6208, 528.42, null, 330.27, 30.175 ], [ 1995, 2935.75, 6213.83, 1031.08, 384.17, 17.0833, 1.4333, 3.3325, 2.7717, 628.25, null, 339.52, 30.15 ], [ 1996, 2294.83, 6165.08, 1025.17, 387.58, 20.65, 1.4567, 2.695, 1.8067, 530.92, null, 284.32, 30.3167 ], [ 1997, 2276.58, 5646.67, 1316.17, 331.17, 19.1, 1.6192, 4.1675, 1.7367, 545.83, null, 284.76, 26.4417 ], [ 1998, 1654.17, 5540.5, 1024.5, 294.08, 12.7333, 1.6758, 2.9825, 1.8225, 671.08, null, 286.41, 24.6667 ], [ 1999, 1572.83, 5403.67, 1076.42, 278.75, 17.8167, 1.135, 2.29, 1.4892, 436.0, 0.5908, 269.27, 23.3667 ], [ 2000, 1813.5, 5435.75, 1128.17, 279.0, 28.2583, 0.9067, 1.9217, 0.9133, 310.25, 0.63, 275.42, 23.475 ], [ 2001, 1578.25, 4484.58, 885.83, 270.83, 24.4083, 1.0675, 1.3733, 0.6067, 287.5, 0.5142, 266.06, 22.4083 ], [ 2002, 1559.58, 4060.58, 778.75, 310.0, 24.9667, 1.7775, 1.3558, 0.6617, 410.92, 0.7508, 236.03, 25.1083 ], [ 2003, 1779.17, 4895.17, 827.83, 363.58, 28.8333, 1.7508, 1.4158, 0.8133, 476.75, 1.005, 279.48, 29.0917 ], [ 2004, 2866.0, 8512.75, 1047.75, 409.17, 38.3083, 1.55, 1.7733, 0.7933, 499.25, 1.2083, 331.3, 33.975 ], [ 2005, 3678.83, 7379.92, 1381.25, 444.83, 54.4417, 1.5383, 2.5325, 1.1142, 450.75, 1.3867, 334.38, 36.95 ], [ 2006, 6722.08, 8780.75, 3275.25, 604.42, 65.4, 1.5933, 2.5217, 1.4883, 508.33, 1.9467, 318.48, 51.5667 ], [ 2007, 7118.17, 14536.83, 3242.33, 696.67, 72.7, 1.9525, 2.7242, 1.9083, 816.75, 2.1558, 381.31, 59.4833 ], [ 2008, 6956.0, 18510.08, 1874.58, 871.75, 97.625, 2.5767, 3.0808, 2.3208, 1042.83, 2.53, 526.88, 72.675 ], [ 2009, 5149.92, 13573.92, 1655.17, 973.0, 61.85, 2.8892, 3.1708, 1.645, 741.25, 1.8008, 421.48, 78.0083 ], [ 2010, 7534.67, 20405.67, 2160.75, 1224.67, 79.6417, 3.1342, 4.32, 1.7358, 933.08, 3.3817, 428.57, 100.01 ], [ 2011, 8828.17, 26053.67, 2193.75, 1569.17, 110.96, 2.9792, 5.9767, 2.4075, 1193.33, 4.5183, 484.79, 136.28 ], [ 2012, 7962.25, 21126.0, 1950.42, 1669.58, 111.97, 2.3917, 4.1117, 2.2658, 1043.42, 3.155, 451.38, 138.46 ], [ 2013, 7332.08, 22282.83, 1910.33, 1411.67, 108.86, 2.4383, 3.0767, 2.0767, 870.75, 2.5158, 463.53, 115.09 ], [ 2014, 6863.25, 21898.83, 2161.08, 1265.58, 98.9333, 3.0617, 4.425, 2.2158, 837.58, 1.7142, 465.17, 101.12 ], [ 2015, 5510.5, 16066.75, 1931.75, 1160.75, 52.3667, 3.1367, 3.5258, 1.9408, 663.42, 1.365, 388.59, 90.6583 ], [ 2016, 4868.0, 17933.83, 2089.92, 1249.0, 44.05, 2.8908, 3.6125, 1.9542, 735.67, 1.3817, 387.4, 97.45 ], [ 2017, 6170.17, 20061.08, 2890.92, 1257.5, 54.4083, 2.0292, 3.3242, 2.225, 750.83, 1.6675, 395.22, 97.85 ], [ 2018, 6529.92, 20145.33, 2922.5, 1269.25, 71.0833, 2.2925, 2.925, 1.8692, 638.58, 1.3667, 413.54, 97.1667 ], [ 2019, 6009.92, 18661.08, 2550.58, 1392.58, 64.0333, 2.3417, 2.88, 1.6217, 601.25, 1.4117, 391.91, 105.44 ], [ 2020, 6173.83, 17124.58, 2266.42, 1770.25, 42.3, 2.3708, 3.3233, 1.5158, 751.67, 1.3308, 399.47, 133.52 ], [ 2021, 9317.08, 32384.17, 3002.58, 1799.58, 70.4583, 2.4267, 4.5108, 1.9817, 1130.42, 1.6783, 414.22, 140.16 ], [ 2022, 8822.25, 31335.33, 3481.25, 1800.75, 99.8333, 2.3933, 5.6308, 2.2858, 1276.0, 1.5442, 368.95, 136.81 ], [ 2023, 8490.33, 25938.17, 2652.75, 1942.75, 82.625, 3.28, 4.5408, 2.6267, 886.5, 1.3833, 378.62, 147.34 ], [ 2024, 9142.0, 30066.33, 2775.75, 2387.58, 80.7083, 7.33, 5.6208, 4.4125, 963.5, 1.7533, 378.68, 180.18 ], [ 2025, 9947.42, 34058.83, 2867.58, 3441.5, 69.05, 7.7975, 8.47, 4.8608, 1006.83, 1.7692, 395.4, 258.59 ] ], "note": "" }, "ext-destinations": { "name_en": "Where Congolese exports go", "name_fr": "Où vont les exportations congolaises", "source": "Comtrade et WITS de la Banque mondiale, statistiques miroir de 2023, relayées par Trading Economics ; les parts en pourcentage sont calculées à partir des valeurs publiées et du total publié.", "cols": [ [ "Destination", "Destination" ], [ "Value, $m", "Valeur, M$" ], [ "Share of exports, %", "Part des exportations, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "China", "Chine" ], 15970, 57.6 ], [ [ "South Africa", "Afrique du Sud" ], 2400, 8.7 ], [ [ "Hong Kong", "Hong Kong" ], 2340, 8.4 ], [ [ "Mozambique", "Mozambique" ], 1580, 5.7 ], [ [ "Singapore", "Singapour" ], 1370, 4.9 ], [ [ "Tanzania", "Tanzanie" ], 1200, 4.3 ], [ [ "United Arab Emirates", "Émirats arabes unis" ], 1030, 3.7 ], [ [ "Switzerland", "Suisse" ], 585, 2.1 ], [ [ "Viet Nam", "Viêt Nam" ], 393, 1.4 ], [ [ "Zambia", "Zambie" ], 325, 1.2 ], [ [ "All other destinations", "Toutes autres destinations" ], 534, 1.9 ], [ [ "Total", "Total" ], 27727, 100.0 ] ], "note_en": "Three readings of this table matter more than the ranking itself. First, one buyer takes more than half of everything the country sells, and the figure is stable: 57.6 per cent to China on the mirror data of 2023, and 57.6 per cent again on the trade-centre data of 2025. A single relationship of that weight is not a trading pattern, it is a dependency. Second, several of the destinations named here are not destinations at all but corridors: South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania are the ports of Durban, Beira and Dar es Salaam, through which copper leaves for Asia, so the economic concentration is greater than the customs breakdown shows. Third, Asia takes 77 per cent, Africa 21 and Europe 2.5: a country at the centre of the continent trades with the other side of the world. The figures are mirror statistics, that is the declarations of the partners rather than of Congolese customs, which is the more reliable source here; the totals of the other databases differ widely and are not to be mixed with these.", "note_fr": "Trois lectures de ce tableau comptent davantage que le classement lui-même. La première : un seul acheteur prend plus de la moitié de tout ce que le pays vend, et le chiffre est stable, 57,6 pour cent vers la Chine sur les données miroir de 2023, 57,6 pour cent encore sur les données du centre du commerce international de 2025. Une relation de ce poids n’est pas une orientation commerciale, c’est une dépendance. La deuxième : plusieurs des destinations nommées ici n’en sont pas, ce sont des corridors. L’Afrique du Sud, le Mozambique et la Tanzanie, ce sont les ports de Durban, de Beira et de Dar es Salaam, par où le cuivre part pour l’Asie ; la concentration économique est donc plus forte que ne le montre la ventilation douanière. La troisième : l’Asie prend 77 pour cent, l’Afrique 21 et l’Europe 2,5. Un pays au centre du continent commerce avec l’autre bout du monde. Les chiffres sont des statistiques miroir, c’est-à-dire les déclarations des partenaires et non celles des douanes congolaises, plus fiables ici ; les totaux des autres bases diffèrent fortement et ne se mêlent pas à ceux-ci." }, "ext-origines": { "name_en": "Where Congolese imports come from", "name_fr": "D’où viennent les importations congolaises", "source": "Comtrade et WITS de la Banque mondiale, statistiques miroir de 2023, relayées par Trading Economics ; les parts en pourcentage sont calculées à partir des valeurs publiées et du total publié.", "cols": [ [ "Origin", "Origine" ], [ "Value, $m", "Valeur, M$" ], [ "Share of imports, %", "Part des importations, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "China", "Chine" ], 6770, 26.5 ], [ [ "United Arab Emirates", "Émirats arabes unis" ], 3010, 11.8 ], [ [ "South Africa", "Afrique du Sud" ], 2090, 8.2 ], [ [ "India", "Inde" ], 1660, 6.5 ], [ [ "Belgium", "Belgique" ], 1280, 5.0 ], [ [ "Saudi Arabia", "Arabie saoudite" ], 1040, 4.1 ], [ [ "Tanzania", "Tanzanie" ], 890, 3.5 ], [ [ "Bahrain", "Bahreïn" ], 823, 3.2 ], [ [ "United States", "États-Unis" ], 621, 2.4 ], [ [ "Zambia", "Zambie" ], 531, 2.1 ], [ [ "All other origins", "Toutes autres origines" ], 6814, 26.7 ], [ [ "Total", "Total" ], 25529, 100.0 ] ], "note_en": "The import side is less concentrated than the export side, and it carries a different risk. China supplies a quarter of imports, essentially equipment and manufactures; the Gulf supplies almost as much: the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait together account for 22.7 per cent, and that is the refined fuel bill. A country that imports its energy in dollars and exports its copper in dollars is hedged on the exchange rate and exposed on the terms of trade, since the two prices do not move together. Uganda and Rwanda do not appear among the first twenty-four suppliers, which does not mean that nothing crosses those borders: the trade of the eastern provinces is largely informal and escapes customs on both sides.", "note_fr": "Le versant des importations est moins concentré que celui des exportations, et il porte un risque d’une autre nature. La Chine fournit le quart des importations, pour l’essentiel des équipements et des produits manufacturés ; le Golfe fournit presque autant : Émirats, Arabie saoudite, Bahreïn, Qatar et Koweït réunis font 22,7 pour cent, et c’est la facture des carburants raffinés. Un pays qui importe son énergie en dollars et exporte son cuivre en dollars est couvert sur le change et exposé sur les termes de l’échange, les deux prix ne bougeant pas ensemble. L’Ouganda et le Rwanda ne figurent pas parmi les vingt-quatre premiers fournisseurs, ce qui ne veut pas dire que rien ne passe ces frontières : le commerce des provinces de l’Est est largement informel et échappe aux douanes des deux côtés." }, "ext-vulnerabilites": { "name_en": "External vulnerability, the readings that matter", "name_fr": "La vulnérabilité extérieure, les relevés qui comptent", "source": "Banque mondiale, Indicateurs du développement dans le monde, séries FI.RES.TOTL.MO, DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS, DT.TDS.DECT.EX.ZS, BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD, BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS, TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN et TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN, extraction du 13 juillet 2026 ; FMI, rapports pays 24/227 et 25/195 ; United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 ; Cobalt Institute, Cobalt Market Report 2024. FMI, rapport pays 25/195, première revue du programme et consultation au titre de l’article IV, 2025 ; réserves internationales brutes en semaines d’importations.", "cols": [ [ "Reading", "Relevé" ], [ "Value", "Valeur" ], [ "Year", "Année" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Reserves, weeks of imports, IMF", "Réserves, semaines d’importations, FMI" ], 10.1, "2024" ], [ [ "Reserves, months of imports, World Bank", "Réserves, mois d’importations, Banque mondiale" ], 1.7, "2023" ], [ [ "External debt, % of gross national income", "Dette extérieure, % du revenu national brut" ], 18.3, "2024" ], [ [ "Debt service, % of exports", "Service de la dette, % des exportations" ], 1.3, "2024" ], [ [ "Net foreign direct investment, $m", "Investissement direct étranger net, M$" ], 2915, "2024" ], [ [ "Remittances, % of GDP", "Envois de fonds, % du PIB" ], 3.7, "2025" ], [ [ "Fuels, % of merchandise imports", "Combustibles, % des importations de marchandises" ], 36.5, "2023" ], [ [ "Food, % of merchandise imports", "Produits alimentaires, % des importations de marchandises" ], 4.8, "2023" ], [ [ "Copper and cobalt, % of exports", "Cuivre et cobalt, % des exportations" ], 86.6, "2023" ], [ [ "Ten largest firms, % of exports", "Dix premières entreprises, % des exportations" ], 63.0, "2023" ], [ [ "China, % of exports", "Chine, % des exportations" ], 57.6, "2023" ], [ [ "DRC share of world cobalt mining, %", "Part de la RD Congo dans l’extraction mondiale de cobalt, %" ], 74.8, "2024" ], [ [ "DRC share of world copper mining, %", "Part de la RD Congo dans l’extraction mondiale de cuivre, %" ], 13.0, "2024" ], [ [ "China share of world cobalt refining, %", "Part de la Chine dans le raffinage mondial du cobalt, %" ], 79.0, "2024" ] ], "note_en": "Read the table from the bottom. The DRC mines three quarters of the world's cobalt; China refines four fifths of it and buys more than half of all Congolese exports. That is not a market, it is a bilateral chain, and the price of cobalt is set at the refining end of it, not at the mining end. Above that, the concentration is threefold: in two products, in one buyer, and in ten firms, which together sell two thirds of what leaves the country. Then come the reserves, and they are the binding constraint: ten weeks of imports is a little over two months, against the three months normally taken as prudent, so an external shock has to be absorbed by the exchange rate rather than by the reserves. What the table does not show is a debt problem: at 18 per cent of national income and a debt service of 1.3 per cent of exports, the DRC is among the least indebted countries of the continent, an inheritance of the 2010 relief. The Congolese external risk is a price risk, not a repayment risk.", "note_fr": "Ce tableau se lit par le bas. La RD Congo extrait les trois quarts du cobalt mondial ; la Chine en raffine les quatre cinquièmes et achète plus de la moitié de toutes les exportations congolaises. Ce n’est pas un marché, c’est une chaîne bilatérale, et le prix du cobalt s’y forme du côté du raffinage, non du côté de la mine. Au-dessus, la concentration est triple : sur deux produits, sur un acheteur et sur dix entreprises, qui vendent ensemble les deux tiers de ce qui sort du pays. Viennent ensuite les réserves, et ce sont elles qui contraignent : dix semaines d’importations font un peu plus de deux mois, contre les trois mois que l’on tient d’ordinaire pour prudents, de sorte qu’un choc extérieur doit être absorbé par le taux de change plutôt que par les réserves. Ce que le tableau ne montre pas, c’est un problème de dette : à 18 pour cent du revenu national et avec un service de 1,3 pour cent des exportations, la RD Congo est parmi les pays les moins endettés du continent, héritage de l’allègement de 2010. Le risque extérieur congolais est un risque de prix, non un risque de remboursement." }, "pauv-trajectoire": { "name_en": "Poverty, the projected path", "name_fr": "Pauvreté, la trajectoire projetée", "source": "Banque mondiale, Macro Poverty Outlook, édition d’avril 2026, fiche République démocratique du Congo ; seuils de pauvreté en parités de pouvoir d’achat de 2021.", "cols": [ [ "Poverty line", "Seuil de pauvreté" ], [ "2023", "2023" ], [ "2024", "2024" ], [ "2025", "2025" ], [ "2026", "2026" ], [ "2027", "2027" ], [ "2028", "2028" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "$3.00 a day, 2021 PPP", "3,00 USD par jour, PPA 2021" ], 82.4, 81.7, 81.1, 80.6, 80.1, 79.5 ], [ [ "$4.20 a day, 2021 PPP", "4,20 USD par jour, PPA 2021" ], 90.2, 89.8, 89.6, 89.3, 89.1, 88.8 ], [ [ "$8.30 a day, 2021 PPP", "8,30 USD par jour, PPA 2021" ], 97.5, 97.4, 97.2, 97.2, 97.1, 97.0 ] ], "note_en": "Not one of these twelve numbers is a measurement. The last household survey with a usable consumption module is the survey of 2020; everything after it is obtained by applying the growth of output per head to the 2020 distribution, with a pass-through of 0.7 and no change in inequality, as the Bank states in its own note. The table is therefore an arithmetical projection of growth, not a measurement of poverty, and it should be read for its shape rather than its decimals: at the growth rate the Bank itself forecasts, the poverty rate falls by half a point a year, which puts the end of extreme poverty beyond the end of the century. The interesting line is the third: at 8.30 dollars a day, the rate does not move at all.", "note_fr": "Aucun de ces douze nombres n’est une mesure. La dernière enquête de ménages dotée d’un module de consommation utilisable est celle de 2020 ; tout ce qui suit est obtenu en appliquant la croissance du produit par habitant à la distribution de 2020, avec une transmission de 0,7 et à inégalité inchangée, comme la Banque le dit elle-même en note. Le tableau est donc une projection arithmétique de la croissance et non une mesure de la pauvreté ; il se lit pour sa forme et non pour ses décimales : au rythme de croissance que la Banque prévoit elle-même, le taux de pauvreté baisse d’un demi-point l’an, ce qui reporte la fin de la pauvreté extrême au-delà de la fin du siècle. La ligne intéressante est la troisième : à 8,30 dollars par jour, le taux ne bouge pas du tout." }, "pauv-multi": { "name_en": "Multidimensional poverty", "name_fr": "Pauvreté multidimensionnelle", "source": "PNUD et Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2025, profil de la République démocratique du Congo ; enquête sous-jacente de 2017-2018, effectifs projetés sur la population de 2023.", "cols": [ [ "Measure", "Mesure" ], [ "Value", "Valeur" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Share of the population who are multidimensionally poor, %", "Part de la population pauvre multidimensionnellement, %" ], 64.5 ], [ [ "Intensity of deprivation, %", "Intensité de la privation, %" ], 51.3 ], [ [ "People multidimensionally poor, millions", "Personnes pauvres multidimensionnellement, millions" ], 68.3 ], [ [ "In severe multidimensional poverty, %", "En pauvreté multidimensionnelle sévère, %" ], 36.8 ], [ [ "Vulnerable to multidimensional poverty, %", "Vulnérables à la pauvreté multidimensionnelle, %" ], 17.4 ], [ [ "Contribution of the standard of living dimension, %", "Contribution de la dimension niveau de vie, %" ], 57.0 ] ], "note_en": "The index itself is 0.331. It counts deprivations rather than money: a household is poor when it is deprived in a third of ten weighted indicators covering health, education and the standard of living. The index itself is the product of the two lines above it, incidence times intensity, which is why 0.645 × 0.513 gives 0.331. Two remarks. The measured rate, 64.5 per cent, is twenty points below the monetary rate of 85.3 per cent at three dollars a day, and the difference is not a contradiction: a household can have a roof, a school and a clinic and still have almost no cash income. And more than half of the index comes from the standard-of-living dimension alone (cooking fuel, electricity, water, sanitation, housing), which is to say from infrastructure. The underlying survey dates from 2017-2018; the World Bank publishes a different multidimensional measure, at 88 per cent for 2020, which is not comparable with this one.", "note_fr": "L’indice vaut 0,331. Il compte des privations et non de l’argent : un ménage est pauvre lorsqu’il est privé sur un tiers de dix indicateurs pondérés couvrant la santé, l’éducation et le niveau de vie. L’indice est lui-même le produit des deux lignes qui le suivent, incidence fois intensité, d’où 0,645 × 0,513 = 0,331. Deux remarques. Le taux mesuré, 64,5 pour cent, est de vingt points inférieur au taux monétaire de 85,3 pour cent à trois dollars par jour, et la différence n’est pas une contradiction : un ménage peut avoir un toit, une école et un dispensaire et n’avoir presque aucun revenu monétaire. Plus de la moitié de l’indice vient par ailleurs de la seule dimension du niveau de vie (combustible de cuisson, électricité, eau, assainissement, logement), c’est-à-dire des infrastructures. L’enquête sous-jacente date de 2017-2018 ; la Banque mondiale publie une autre mesure multidimensionnelle, de 88 pour cent pour 2020, qui ne se compare pas à celle-ci." }, "emp-chomage": { "name_en": "Unemployment, participation and employment, modelled estimates", "name_fr": "Chômage, activité et emploi, estimations modélisées", "source": "Organisation internationale du travail, estimations modélisées (ILO modelled estimates), servies par les Indicateurs du développement dans le monde de la Banque mondiale, extraction du 13 juillet 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Unemployment, total, %", "Chômage, total, %" ], [ "Men, %", "Hommes, %" ], [ "Women, %", "Femmes, %" ], [ "Youth 15-24, %", "Jeunes 15-24 ans, %" ], [ "Participation rate, 15+, %", "Taux d’activité, 15 ans et +, %" ], [ "Employment to population, 15+, %", "Ratio emploi-population, 15 ans et +, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2000", 3.2, "—", "—", "—", 72.5, 70.2 ], [ "2005", 2.9, "—", "—", "—", 72.6, 70.4 ], [ "2010", 4.1, "—", "—", "—", 68.0, 65.2 ], [ "2015", 4.4, "—", "—", 8.2, 65.3, 62.4 ], [ "2019", 4.6, 5.5, 3.7, 8.2, 64.3, 61.3 ], [ "2020", 5.4, 6.5, 4.2, 9.6, 63.4, 60.0 ], [ "2021", 5.3, 6.3, 4.2, 9.2, 63.6, 60.3 ], [ "2022", 4.5, 5.4, 3.7, 8.1, 64.4, 61.4 ], [ "2023", 4.5, 5.3, 3.6, 8.0, 64.4, 61.5 ], [ "2024", 4.4, 5.2, 3.6, 8.0, 64.4, 61.6 ], [ "2025", 4.4, 5.3, 3.5, 7.8, 64.3, 61.5 ] ], "note_en": "A four per cent unemployment rate in a country where four people in five are poor is not a paradox, it is a definition. A person counted as unemployed must have no work at all, be available for work and be looking for it; in an economy without unemployment insurance nobody can hold that position for long, so the poor are not unemployed, they are employed badly. The table that follows on the structure of employment is therefore the one to read beside this one, and the rate above should be read as a measure of the formal labour market rather than of hardship. Two further cautions. These are modelled estimates: the Labour Organization has only three survey readings for the DRC, 2005, 2012 and 2020, and interpolates the rest, so the year-to-year movement carries little information. And the figures for 2024 and 2025 are projections. The one economically meaningful movement in the table is the fall of the participation rate, from 72.5 per cent in 2000 to 64.3 in 2025: the population of working age has grown faster than the number of people at work.", "note_fr": "Un taux de chômage de quatre pour cent dans un pays où quatre personnes sur cinq sont pauvres n’est pas un paradoxe, c’est une définition. Est compté comme chômeur celui qui n’a aucun travail, qui est disponible et qui en cherche un ; dans une économie sans assurance chômage, personne ne tient longtemps cette position, de sorte que les pauvres ne sont pas chômeurs, ils sont mal employés. Le tableau suivant, sur la structure de l’emploi, se lit donc à côté de celui-ci, et le taux ci-dessus se lit comme une mesure du marché du travail formel plutôt que de la difficulté de vivre. Deux autres précautions. Ce sont des estimations modélisées : l’Organisation du travail ne dispose pour la RD Congo que de trois relevés d’enquête, 2005, 2012 et 2020, et interpole le reste, si bien que le mouvement d’une année à l’autre ne porte presque aucune information. Les chiffres de 2024 et de 2025 sont en outre des projections. Le seul mouvement économiquement parlant du tableau est la baisse du taux d’activité, de 72,5 pour cent en 2000 à 64,3 en 2025 : la population en âge de travailler a crû plus vite que le nombre de personnes au travail." }, "emp-structure": { "name_en": "The structure of employment", "name_fr": "La structure de l’emploi", "source": "Organisation internationale du travail, estimations modélisées (ILO modelled estimates), servies par les Indicateurs du développement dans le monde de la Banque mondiale, extraction du 13 juillet 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Agriculture, %", "Agriculture, %" ], [ "Industry, %", "Industrie, %" ], [ "Services, %", "Services, %" ], [ "Vulnerable employment, %", "Emploi vulnérable, %" ], [ "Informal employment, %", "Emploi informel, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2000", 67.0, 8.4, 24.7, 82.1, "—" ], [ "2005", "—", "—", "—", "—", 98.6 ], [ "2010", 63.7, 8.3, 28.0, 80.9, "—" ], [ "2012", "—", "—", "—", "—", 97.3 ], [ "2015", 60.2, 8.5, 31.3, 81.0, "—" ], [ "2019", 59.4, 8.3, 32.3, 82.0, "—" ], [ "2020", 60.9, 8.2, 30.9, 83.1, 96.3 ], [ "2022", 60.4, 8.0, 31.6, 82.3, "—" ], [ "2023", 59.5, 8.0, 32.5, 82.1, "—" ], [ "2024", 58.9, 8.0, 33.1, 81.8, "—" ], [ "2025", 58.5, 8.0, 33.5, 81.5, "—" ] ], "note_en": "This is the table that explains the previous one. Eight workers in ten are in vulnerable employment, that is own-account work or unpaid family work, and the proportion has not moved in a quarter of a century. Informal employment, measured on the international definition of the thirteenth conference of labour statisticians, was 96.3 per cent in 2020, against 98.6 in 2005: a fall of two points in fifteen years. Informality is measured only in a survey year, hence the dashes; the three readings come from the surveys of 2005, 2012 and 2020 and are not modelled. Agriculture has given up eight points since 2000, and services have taken all of them: industry, mining included, has employed a steady eight per cent of workers throughout, while producing the near totality of exports. That contrast is the single most important fact about the Congolese labour market.", "note_fr": "C’est ce tableau qui explique le précédent. Huit travailleurs sur dix sont en emploi vulnérable, c’est-à-dire à leur compte ou aides familiaux non rémunérés, et la proportion n’a pas bougé en un quart de siècle. L’emploi informel, mesuré selon la définition internationale de la treizième conférence des statisticiens du travail, était de 96,3 pour cent en 2020 contre 98,6 en 2005 : deux points en quinze ans. L’informalité n’est mesurée qu’une année d’enquête, d’où les tirets ; les trois relevés viennent des enquêtes de 2005, 2012 et 2020 et ne sont pas modélisés. L’agriculture a cédé huit points depuis 2000 et les services les ont tous pris : l’industrie, mines comprises, occupe invariablement huit pour cent des travailleurs tout en produisant la quasi-totalité des exportations. Ce contraste est le fait le plus important du marché du travail congolais." }, "emp-enquetes": { "name_en": "What the Congolese surveys measured", "name_fr": "Ce que les enquêtes congolaises ont mesuré", "source": "Institut national de la statistique, enquête 1-2-3, phase 1 de 2005 et phase 1 de 2012 ; résultats publiés par DIAL, documents de travail 2007-14 et 2014-23. Les microdonnées sont déposées au catalogue de l’International Household Survey Network (enquête 4076, 2004-2005), dans la bibliothèque d’enquêtes de l’Organisation internationale du travail (enquête 7795, 2012) et sur la page « Enquête 1-2-3 (2005 & 2012) » du Centre des grands lacs d’Afrique de l’université d’Anvers. Institut national de la statistique, Enquête sur les conditions de vie des ménages 2024, rapport final publié le 16 février 2026 avec le PNUD ; les deux lignes de 2024 sont reprises de la presse citant ce rapport, le fichier ne se laissant pas lire par machine.", "cols": [ [ "Reading", "Relevé" ], [ "1-2-3, 2005", "1-2-3, 2005" ], [ "1-2-3, 2012", "1-2-3, 2012" ], [ "ECVM, 2024", "ECVM, 2024" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Participation rate, 10 and over, %", "Taux d’activité, 10 ans et plus, %" ], 60.9, 55.9, "—" ], [ [ "Unemployment, ILO definition, %", "Chômage au sens du BIT, %" ], 3.7, 4.5, "—" ], [ [ "Unemployment, broad definition, %", "Chômage élargi, %" ], 6.4, 8.0, "—" ], [ [ "Unemployment, ILO definition, Kinshasa, %", "Chômage au sens du BIT, Kinshasa, %" ], 14.9, 18.8, "—" ], [ [ "Unemployment, ILO definition, rural, %", "Chômage au sens du BIT, rural, %" ], 1.2, 1.4, "—" ], [ [ "Youth unemployment 15-24, ILO definition, %", "Chômage des 15-24 ans, au sens du BIT, %" ], "—", 8.8, "—" ], [ [ "Informal sector, share of employment, %", "Secteur informel, part de l’emploi, %" ], 91.0, 88.6, "—" ], [ [ "Agriculture, share of employment, %", "Agriculture, part de l’emploi, %" ], "—", 71.2, 45.7 ], [ [ "Employment rate, national, %", "Taux d’occupation, national, %" ], "—", "—", 55.9 ], [ [ "Employment rate, Kinshasa, %", "Taux d’occupation, Kinshasa, %" ], "—", "—", 48.1 ] ], "note_en": "Three surveys in twenty years, and they say what the modelled estimates cannot. Unemployment is a town phenomenon and above all a Kinshasa one: 18.8 per cent in the capital in 2012 against 1.4 per cent in the countryside, because a rural household cannot afford to be without work and simply works its land. The broad definition, which counts those who want work but have stopped looking, is nearly twice the narrow one. The two 2024 readings are of a different kind, an employment rate rather than an unemployment rate, and the two should not be subtracted from one hundred to obtain each other: a person neither employed nor looking is inactive, not unemployed. They are also the only lines here taken from press accounts of the report rather than from the report itself, which no machine could read, and they are marked as such in the source.", "note_fr": "Trois enquêtes en vingt ans, et elles disent ce que les estimations modélisées ne peuvent pas dire. Le chômage est un phénomène urbain et surtout kinois : 18,8 pour cent dans la capitale en 2012 contre 1,4 pour cent en milieu rural, parce qu’un ménage rural ne peut pas se permettre d’être sans travail et cultive sa terre. Le chômage élargi, qui compte ceux qui veulent un emploi mais ont cessé d’en chercher, vaut près du double du chômage strict. Les deux relevés de 2024 sont d’une autre nature, un taux d’occupation et non un taux de chômage, et l’on ne passe pas de l’un à l’autre en retranchant de cent : une personne ni occupée ni en recherche est inactive, non chômeuse. Ce sont aussi les deux seules lignes tirées de comptes rendus de presse du rapport plutôt que du rapport lui-même, qu’aucune machine n’a pu lire, et la source le dit." }, "prod-niveau": { "name_en": "Labour productivity, level", "name_fr": "Productivité du travail, niveau", "source": "Calcul de l’auteur à partir des Indicateurs du développement dans le monde (Banque mondiale, extraction du 13 juillet 2026) et des estimations modélisées de l’Organisation internationale du travail. Méthode et hypothèses sous le tableau.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Employment, millions", "Emploi, millions" ], [ "GDP, billions of 2015 dollars", "PIB, milliards de dollars de 2015" ], [ "GDP per worker, 2015 dollars", "PIB par travailleur, dollars de 2015" ], [ "Index, 2000 = 100", "Indice, 2000 = 100" ], [ "Capital to output ratio", "Rapport capital-produit" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2, 1, 0, 1, 2 ], "rows": [ [ "2000", 19.26, 17.1, 891, 100.0, 2.11 ], [ "2005", 22.41, 20.7, 923, 103.6, 2.03 ], [ "2010", 24.11, 27.7, 1148, 128.9, 2.17 ], [ "2015", 27.31, 40.2, 1471, 165.2, 2.25 ], [ "2019", 30.8, 44.8, 1456, 163.5, 2.52 ], [ "2020", 31.09, 45.2, 1454, 163.2, 2.57 ], [ "2021", 32.21, 48.1, 1494, 167.7, 2.66 ], [ "2022", 33.9, 52.6, 1551, 174.2, 2.72 ], [ "2023", 35.09, 57.1, 1627, 182.7, 2.74 ], [ "2024", 36.31, 60.6, 1668, 187.3, 2.82 ], [ "2025", 37.48, 64.0, 1709, 191.9, 2.82 ] ], "note_en": "Labour productivity is output divided by the number of people at work, and it is the quantity that decides, in the long run, what a country can pay itself. Employment is not published for the DRC and is obtained here as the labour force multiplied by one minus the unemployment rate; output is gross domestic product at constant 2015 dollars. The capital stock behind the last column is built by perpetual inventory from gross fixed capital formation at constant prices, with a depreciation rate of six per cent a year and an initial stock for 1993 set at investment divided by the sum of depreciation and the average growth rate of output over the period. The story is a doubling in twenty-five years, from 891 to 1 709 dollars a worker, and a productivity that stalled between 2015 and 2020 before starting again. The capital to output ratio rose from 2.1 to 2.8 over the same years, which means the additional output was bought with more capital per unit of product, not with better use of it.", "note_fr": "La productivité du travail est la production divisée par le nombre de personnes au travail, et c’est elle qui décide, à long terme, de ce qu’un pays peut se payer. L’emploi n’est pas publié pour la RD Congo : il est obtenu ici comme la population active multipliée par un moins le taux de chômage ; la production est le produit intérieur brut en dollars constants de 2015. Le stock de capital de la dernière colonne est construit par inventaire permanent à partir de la formation brute de capital fixe à prix constants, avec un taux de dépréciation de six pour cent l’an et un stock initial de 1993 posé égal à l’investissement divisé par la somme de la dépréciation et de la croissance moyenne de la production sur la période. L’histoire est celle d’un doublement en vingt-cinq ans, de 891 à 1 709 dollars par travailleur, et d’une productivité arrêtée entre 2015 et 2020 avant de repartir. Le rapport capital-produit est passé de 2,1 à 2,8 sur les mêmes années : la production supplémentaire a été achetée avec plus de capital par unité de produit, non avec un meilleur usage de celui-ci." }, "prod-croissance": { "name_en": "Growth of output, employment and productivity", "name_fr": "Croissance de la production, de l’emploi et de la productivité", "source": "Calcul de l’auteur à partir des Indicateurs du développement dans le monde (Banque mondiale, extraction du 13 juillet 2026) et des estimations modélisées de l’Organisation internationale du travail. Méthode et hypothèses sous le tableau.", "cols": [ [ "Period", "Période" ], [ "GDP, % a year", "PIB, % par an" ], [ "Employment, % a year", "Emploi, % par an" ], [ "Productivity, % a year", "Productivité, % par an" ], [ "Capital, % a year", "Capital, % par an" ], [ "GDP per head, % a year", "PIB par habitant, % par an" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2, 2, 2, 2, 2 ], "rows": [ [ "2000-2010", 4.9, 2.27, 2.57, 5.2, 1.75 ], [ "2010-2019", 5.51, 2.76, 2.68, 7.27, 2.0 ], [ "2019-2025", 6.12, 3.33, 2.7, 8.13, 2.74 ], [ "2000-2025", 5.41, 2.7, 2.64, 6.64, 2.08 ] ], "note_en": "Output grew at 5.4 per cent a year over the quarter century, and productivity at 2.6: half of Congolese growth is the arrival of new workers, not a gain in what each one produces. The gap between the first column and the last is demography. Output per head grew at 2.1 per cent a year while output grew at 5.4, because the population grew at more than three per cent. This is the arithmetic that decides how long it takes to leave poverty: at 2.1 per cent a year, output per head doubles in thirty-three years; at 4 per cent, in eighteen.", "note_fr": "La production a crû de 5,4 pour cent l’an sur le quart de siècle, et la productivité de 2,6 : la moitié de la croissance congolaise est l’arrivée de travailleurs nouveaux, non un gain de ce que chacun produit. L’écart entre la première colonne et la dernière est la démographie. La production par habitant a crû de 2,1 pour cent l’an quand la production croissait de 5,4, parce que la population croissait de plus de trois pour cent. C’est cette arithmétique qui décide du temps qu’il faut pour sortir de la pauvreté : à 2,1 pour cent l’an, le produit par habitant double en trente-trois ans ; à 4 pour cent, en dix-huit." }, "prod-solow": { "name_en": "Growth accounting, contributions to output growth", "name_fr": "Comptabilité de la croissance, contributions à la croissance de la production", "source": "Calcul de l’auteur à partir des Indicateurs du développement dans le monde (Banque mondiale, extraction du 13 juillet 2026) et des estimations modélisées de l’Organisation internationale du travail. Méthode et hypothèses sous le tableau.", "cols": [ [ "Period", "Période" ], [ "Output growth, %", "Croissance de la production, %" ], [ "Capital contribution", "Contribution du capital" ], [ "Labour contribution", "Contribution du travail" ], [ "Total factor productivity", "Productivité globale des facteurs" ], [ "Share of growth from productivity, %", "Part de la croissance due à la productivité, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2, 2, 2, 2, 0 ], "rows": [ [ "2000-2010", 4.9, 2.08, 1.36, 1.46, 30 ], [ "2010-2019", 5.51, 2.91, 1.65, 0.95, 17 ], [ "2019-2025", 6.12, 3.25, 2.0, 0.87, 14 ], [ "2000-2025", 5.41, 2.66, 1.62, 1.14, 21 ] ], "note_en": "The decomposition is the standard one. Output is written as a Cobb-Douglas function of capital and labour, growth of output is then the capital share times growth of capital, plus the labour share times growth of labour, plus a residual which is total factor productivity. The capital share is set at 0.40, a usual value for a capital-intensive extractive economy; with 0.33 instead, total factor productivity rises to 1.40 points a year over 2000-2025 and to 26 per cent of growth, so the reading below does not depend on the choice. The reading is this: Congolese growth is increasingly bought with capital. The residual, which measures everything that is neither machine nor worker, such as organisation, roads, the rule of law and technical progress, contributed 1.5 points a year in the 2000s and 0.9 in the 2020s, and its share of growth fell from thirty to fourteen per cent. A growth of that shape is expensive and it is fragile, because it lasts only as long as the investment lasts.", "note_fr": "La décomposition est la décomposition usuelle. La production s’écrit comme une fonction Cobb-Douglas du capital et du travail ; la croissance de la production est alors la part du capital fois la croissance du capital, plus la part du travail fois la croissance du travail, plus un résidu qui est la productivité globale des facteurs. La part du capital est posée à 0,40, valeur usuelle pour une économie extractive intensive en capital ; avec 0,33, la productivité globale des facteurs remonte à 1,40 point l’an sur 2000-2025 et à 26 pour cent de la croissance : la lecture ci-dessous ne tient donc pas au choix de ce paramètre. Cette lecture est la suivante. La croissance congolaise s’achète de plus en plus avec du capital. Le résidu, qui mesure tout ce qui n’est ni machine ni travailleur, comme l’organisation, les routes, l’État de droit et le progrès technique, a apporté 1,5 point l’an dans les années 2000 et 0,9 dans les années 2020, et sa part dans la croissance est tombée de trente à quatorze pour cent. Une croissance de cette forme coûte cher et elle est fragile, car elle ne dure que ce que dure l’investissement." }, "prod-decomposition": { "name_en": "Output per head, and what it is made of", "name_fr": "Le produit par habitant, et ce qui le compose", "source": "Calcul de l’auteur à partir des Indicateurs du développement dans le monde (Banque mondiale, extraction du 13 juillet 2026) et des estimations modélisées de l’Organisation internationale du travail. Méthode et hypothèses sous le tableau.", "cols": [ [ "Year or period", "Année ou période" ], [ "GDP per head, 2015 dollars", "PIB par habitant, dollars de 2015" ], [ "Productivity, dollars per worker", "Productivité, dollars par travailleur" ], [ "Employment rate, 15-64", "Taux d’emploi, 15-64 ans" ], [ "Share of population aged 15-64", "Part des 15-64 ans dans la population" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 0, 3, 3 ], "rows": [ [ "2000", 339.5, 891, 0.742, 0.514 ], [ "2010", 403.7, 1148, 0.692, 0.508 ], [ "2019", 482.5, 1456, 0.651, 0.509 ], [ "2025", 567.6, 1709, 0.652, 0.51 ] ], "note_en": "Output per head is the product of three things: what a worker produces, the share of working-age people who work, and the share of the population that is of working age. Written in growth rates the product becomes a sum, and the last line of the table is that sum: 2.08 = 2.64 − 0.52 − 0.03. Productivity did all the work, and the employment rate took back a fifth of it, because employment grew more slowly than the working-age population. The third term is almost exactly zero, and that is the notable fact: the share of people of working age has not moved in twenty-five years, so the DRC has not yet entered the demographic transition that gave Asia its extra points of growth. The 2025 figures are projections.", "note_fr": "Le produit par habitant est le produit de trois choses : ce que produit un travailleur, la part des personnes en âge de travailler qui travaillent, et la part de la population qui est en âge de travailler. Écrit en taux de croissance, le produit devient une somme, et la dernière ligne du tableau est cette somme : 2,08 = 2,64 − 0,52 − 0,03. La productivité a tout fait, et le taux d’emploi en a repris un cinquième, l’emploi ayant crû moins vite que la population en âge de travailler. Le troisième terme est presque exactement nul, et c’est le fait notable : la part des personnes en âge de travailler n’a pas bougé en vingt-cinq ans, de sorte que la RD Congo n’est pas encore entrée dans la transition démographique qui a donné à l’Asie ses points de croissance supplémentaires. Les chiffres de 2025 sont des projections." }, "prod-decomp-croissance": { "name_en": "Output per head, contributions to growth", "name_fr": "Le produit par habitant, contributions à la croissance", "source": "Calcul de l’auteur à partir des Indicateurs du développement dans le monde (Banque mondiale, extraction du 13 juillet 2026) et des estimations modélisées de l’Organisation internationale du travail. Méthode et hypothèses sous le tableau.", "cols": [ [ "Period", "Période" ], [ "GDP per head, % a year", "PIB par habitant, % par an" ], [ "Productivity", "Productivité" ], [ "Employment rate", "Taux d’emploi" ], [ "Share aged 15-64", "Part des 15-64 ans" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2, 2, 2, 2 ], "rows": [ [ "2000-2010", 1.75, 2.57, -0.7, -0.11 ], [ "2010-2019", 2.0, 2.68, -0.68, 0.02 ], [ "2019-2025", 2.74, 2.7, 0.03, 0.01 ], [ "2000-2025", 2.08, 2.64, -0.52, -0.03 ] ], "note_en": "Each line is a sum: the growth of output per head equals the growth of productivity, plus the growth of the employment rate, plus the growth of the share of the population of working age. The middle column carries everything; the third is negative until 2019, because employment grew more slowly than the working-age population; the fourth is zero throughout, the demographic transition not having begun.", "note_fr": "Chaque ligne est une somme : la croissance du produit par habitant égale la croissance de la productivité, plus celle du taux d’emploi, plus celle de la part de la population en âge de travailler. La colonne du milieu porte tout ; la troisième est négative jusqu’en 2019, l’emploi ayant crû moins vite que la population en âge de travailler ; la quatrième est nulle d’un bout à l’autre, la transition démographique n’ayant pas commencé." }, "prod-comparaison": { "name_en": "Output per worker, international comparison", "name_fr": "Production par travailleur, comparaison internationale", "source": "Banque mondiale, Indicateurs du développement dans le monde, indicateur SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD, PIB par personne employée en parités de pouvoir d’achat constantes de 2021, extraction du 13 juillet 2026.", "cols": [ [ "Country or region", "Pays ou région" ], [ "2022", "2022" ], [ "2024", "2024" ], [ "2025", "2025" ], [ "Ratio to the DRC, 2025", "Rapport à la RD Congo, 2025" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0, 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "DR Congo", "RD Congo" ], 4483, 4821, 4939, 1.0 ], [ [ "Rwanda", "Rwanda" ], 9442, 9425, 10010, 2.0 ], [ [ "Sub-Saharan Africa", "Afrique subsaharienne" ], 12741, 12758, 12931, 2.6 ], [ [ "Kenya", "Kenya" ], 13911, 14514, 14763, 3.0 ], [ [ "Nigeria", "Nigeria" ], 17087, 16929, 17120, 3.5 ], [ [ "Côte d’Ivoire", "Côte d’Ivoire" ], 16390, 17399, 17977, 3.6 ] ], "note_en": "The same quantity as the first table of this section, but measured in purchasing power parities so that countries can be compared, which is why the level differs from the one in 2015 dollars. A Congolese worker produces 4 939 international dollars a year, a Rwandan twice that, the average sub-Saharan worker two and a half times, an Ivorian three and a half. The gap with the regional average has not closed: it was 2.8 to 1 in 2022 and it is 2.6 to 1 in 2025, a convergence that would take two generations at that pace. The 2025 column is a projection.", "note_fr": "La même grandeur que dans le premier tableau de cette section, mais mesurée en parités de pouvoir d’achat pour que les pays se comparent, d’où un niveau différent de celui exprimé en dollars de 2015. Un travailleur congolais produit 4 939 dollars internationaux par an, un Rwandais le double, le travailleur subsaharien moyen deux fois et demie, un Ivoirien trois fois et demie. L’écart avec la moyenne régionale ne s’est pas refermé : il était de 2,8 contre 1 en 2022, il est de 2,6 contre 1 en 2025, une convergence qui demanderait deux générations à ce rythme. La colonne de 2025 est une projection." }, "situ-cadre": { "name_en": "The macroeconomic frame, 2023 to 2028", "name_fr": "Le cadre macroéconomique, de 2023 à 2028", "source": "Banque mondiale, Macro Poverty Outlook, édition d’avril 2026, fiche République démocratique du Congo ; seuils de pauvreté en parités de pouvoir d’achat de 2021.", "cols": [ [ "Indicator", "Indicateur" ], [ "2023", "2023" ], [ "2024", "2024" ], [ "2025", "2025" ], [ "2026", "2026" ], [ "2027", "2027" ], [ "2028", "2028" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Real GDP growth, %", "Croissance du PIB réel, %" ], 8.6, 6.1, 5.5, 5.2, 5.1, 5.1 ], [ [ "Inflation, consumer prices, %", "Inflation, prix à la consommation, %" ], 19.9, 17.7, 7.5, 6.0, 6.4, 7.0 ], [ [ "Current account balance, % of GDP", "Solde courant, % du PIB" ], -5.5, -4.2, -3.6, -3.4, -3.2, -3.0 ], [ [ "Fiscal balance, % of GDP", "Solde budgétaire, % du PIB" ], -2.4, -2.4, -3.2, -2.6, -2.6, -1.8 ], [ [ "Public debt, % of GDP", "Dette publique, % du PIB" ], 27.4, 22.9, 21.1, 21.6, 21.8, 22.1 ], [ [ "Poverty at $3.00 a day, %", "Pauvreté à 3,00 USD par jour, %" ], 82.4, 81.7, 81.1, 80.6, 80.1, 79.5 ] ], "note_en": "Six lines are enough to state the Congolese position. Growth is strong and slowing to about five per cent, inflation has been brought down from twenty to six, the external and fiscal deficits are small, public debt is low at about twenty-two per cent of output, and poverty does not move. The first five lines describe a country whose macroeconomic management has worked; the sixth says that this is not, by itself, enough. Everything from 2025 onwards is a forecast, and the forecast assumes no worsening of the war in the east and no collapse of the copper and cobalt prices.", "note_fr": "Six lignes suffisent à dire la position congolaise. La croissance est forte et ralentit vers cinq pour cent, l’inflation a été ramenée de vingt à six, les déficits extérieur et budgétaire sont petits, la dette publique est basse, autour de vingt-deux pour cent de la production, et la pauvreté ne bouge pas. Les cinq premières lignes décrivent un pays dont la gestion macroéconomique a fonctionné ; la sixième dit que cela ne suffit pas en soi. Tout ce qui va de 2025 à 2028 est une prévision, et cette prévision suppose que la guerre de l’Est ne s’aggrave pas et que les cours du cuivre et du cobalt ne s’effondrent pas." }, "ext-concentration": { "name_en": "Trade concentration, by partner", "name_fr": "Concentration des échanges, par partenaire", "source": "Comtrade et WITS de la Banque mondiale, statistiques miroir de 2023, relayées par Trading Economics ; les parts en pourcentage sont calculées à partir des valeurs publiées et du total publié.", "cols": [ [ "Reading", "Relevé" ], [ "Value", "Valeur" ], [ "Year", "Année" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Export partners, number", "Partenaires à l’exportation, nombre" ], 107, "2023" ], [ [ "Import partners, number", "Partenaires à l’importation, nombre" ], 179, "2023" ], [ [ "Products exported, HS6 lines", "Produits exportés, lignes SH6" ], 801, "2023" ], [ [ "Products imported, HS6 lines", "Produits importés, lignes SH6" ], 3692, "2023" ], [ [ "Export CR1, top partner, %", "CR1 exportations, premier partenaire, %" ], 57.6, "2023" ], [ [ "Export CR3, top three partners, %", "CR3 exportations, trois premiers partenaires, %" ], 74.7, "2023" ], [ [ "Export CR5, top five partners, %", "CR5 exportations, cinq premiers partenaires, %" ], 85.3, "2023" ], [ [ "Import CR1, top partner, %", "CR1 importations, premier partenaire, %" ], 26.5, "2023" ], [ [ "Import CR3, top three partners, %", "CR3 importations, trois premiers partenaires, %" ], 46.5, "2023" ], [ [ "Import CR5, top five partners, %", "CR5 importations, cinq premiers partenaires, %" ], 58.0, "2023" ], [ [ "Export Herfindahl-Hirschman index, ×100", "Indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman des exportations, ×100" ], 44.0, "2023" ], [ [ "Import Herfindahl-Hirschman index, ×100, lower bound", "Indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman des importations, ×100, borne basse" ], 10.3, "2023" ] ], "note_en": "CR1, CR3 and CR5 are my own running sums of the shares published in the two tables above, not figures WITS or Comtrade publish directly; they read, for instance, as “the three largest export destinations take 74.7 per cent of goods exports.” The export Herfindahl-Hirschman index is WITS's own published figure for 2023 (country profile, Congo, Dem. Rep., code ZAR), rescaled by 100 so it sits on the same page as a percentage; WITS does not publish the matching import index, so the import figure here is a lower bound I compute from only the ten largest suppliers, each share squared and summed. The true import index is a little higher, because the residual 26.7 per cent of imports is spread across 169 smaller suppliers rather than one, so the gap to the true value stays small. The same caution does not carry over to the export side: a top-ten-only version of the same calculation gives 35.6, eight points below WITS's own 44.0, which says the true concentration already shows up fully within the ten largest buyers and is not an artefact of a long tail the way the import figure is; the gap is a property of WITS's own methodology, not of a longer tail outside the top ten, and is left unexplained rather than papered over.", "note_fr": "Les CR1, CR3 et CR5 sont mes propres sommes cumulées des parts publiées dans les deux tableaux qui précèdent, non des chiffres que WITS ou Comtrade publient directement ; ils se lisent, par exemple, comme « les trois premières destinations d’exportation prennent 74,7 pour cent des exportations de biens ». L’indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman des exportations est le chiffre publié par WITS lui-même pour 2023 (profil pays, Congo, Dem. Rep., code ZAR), remis à l’échelle par 100 pour figurer sur la même page qu’un pourcentage ; WITS ne publie pas l’indice correspondant pour les importations, si bien que le chiffre donné ici n’est qu’une borne basse, calculée à partir des dix premiers fournisseurs seulement, chaque part élevée au carré puis sommée. La valeur réelle est un peu plus élevée, car les 26,7 pour cent résiduels des importations se répartissent entre 169 fournisseurs plus modestes et non sur un seul, si bien que l’écart à la valeur réelle reste faible. La même prudence ne vaut pas du côté des exportations : la même méthode limitée aux dix premiers partenaires donne 35,6, soit huit points sous le 44,0 propre de WITS, ce qui indique que la concentration réelle apparaît déjà en entier dans les dix premiers acheteurs et ne tient pas, comme pour les importations, à une longue traîne hors du top dix ; l’écart tient à la méthode propre de WITS, non à une traîne plus longue hors du top dix, et il est signalé tel quel plutôt que lissé." }, "fin-publiques-zaire": { "name_en": "Central government revenue, Zaïre, 1968–1989", "name_fr": "Recettes de l’État, Zaïre, 1968–1989", "source": "Banque mondiale, rapports pays sur le Zaïre : nº 821-ZR, The Economy of Zaire ; nº 1407-ZR, Economic Conditions and Prospects of Zaire ; nº 2518-ZR et nº 3287-ZR et nº 4077-ZR, Zaire Economic Memorandum (20 mai 1981 pour le nº 3287-ZR) ; nº 8995-ZR, A Review of Government Expenditure, 7 juin 1991. Recoupé avec Euromoney, « Erwin Blumenthal is Zaire's last hope », février 1979, pour le déficit de 1977.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Current revenue, Z million", "Recettes courantes, millions de zaïres" ], [ "Per cent of GDP", "En % du PIB" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "1968", 184.7, "—" ], [ "1969", 272.7, "—" ], [ "1970", 306.9, 38.1 ], [ "1971", 292.2, "—" ], [ "1972", 301.1, "—" ], [ "1973", 387.4, "—" ], [ "1974", 534.4, "—" ], [ "1975", 404.8, "—" ], [ "1976", 731.0, "—" ], [ "1977", "—", 19.3 ], [ "1978", "—", "—" ], [ "1979", 1976.0, 22.8 ], [ "1980", 3777.0, 28.4 ], [ "1981", 4802.0, 24.7 ], [ "1982", "—", "—" ], [ "1983", "—", "—" ], [ "1984", "—", "—" ], [ "1985", "—", "—" ], [ "1986", "—", "—" ], [ "1987", "—", "—" ], [ "1988", "—", "—" ], [ "1989", "—", "—" ] ], "note_en": "No estimated values appear in this table: a dash means the figure is not available in the reports consulted. Three gaps matter for anyone tempted to splice this series onto a modern one. First, 1982–1989 has no annual figure at all; the only published numbers for that decade are three-year averages of revenue as a share of GDP (8.0% in 1981–83, 10.2% in 1984–86, 9.7% in 1987–89, World Bank Report No. 8995-ZR). Second, for several years the Bank's own reports disagree with each other: 1973 is given as 373.5, 382.5 or 387.4 Z million depending on the report and the revenue definition used; 1974 ranges from 534.4 to 810.5 Z million, a gap of more than 50%; 1978 is cited at both 15.5% and roughly 25% of GDP in two different Bank memoranda. The value kept here is the one from the most directly comparable series for the surrounding years, not a judgment that it is the correct one. Third, ratios before 1982 rest on “commercialized GDP,” a narrower denominator than total GDP, and are not comparable without adjustment to a ratio computed on total GDP. The currency is the first zaïre (Z), replaced by the second zaïre in 1993 and by the Congolese franc in 1998; neither the amounts nor, for the reasons above, the ratios can be chained onto the post-1990 series in the table above it without first testing whether the two periods share the same fiscal regime.", "note_fr": "Aucune valeur n’est estimée dans ce tableau : un tiret signifie que le chiffre ne figure pas dans les rapports consultés. Trois lacunes comptent pour qui serait tenté de raccorder cette série à une série moderne. D’abord, 1982–1989 ne comporte aucun chiffre annuel : les seuls chiffres publiés pour cette décennie sont des moyennes triennales des recettes en pourcentage du PIB (8,0% en 1981-83, 10,2% en 1984-86, 9,7% en 1987-89, Banque mondiale, rapport n° 8995-ZR). Ensuite, pour plusieurs années, les rapports de la Banque se contredisent entre eux : 1973 est donné à 373,5, 382,5 ou 387,4 millions de zaïres selon le rapport et la définition des recettes retenue ; 1974 va de 534,4 à 810,5 millions de zaïres, un écart de plus de 50% ; 1978 est cité à la fois à 15,5% et à environ 25% du PIB dans deux mémorandums distincts de la Banque. La valeur retenue ici est celle de la série la plus directement comparable aux années voisines, non un jugement qu’elle serait la bonne. Enfin, les ratios antérieurs à 1982 reposent sur le « PIB commercialisé », un dénominateur plus étroit que le PIB total, et ne sont pas comparables sans ajustement à un ratio calculé sur le PIB total. La monnaie est le premier zaïre (Z), remplacé par le second zaïre en 1993 puis par le franc congolais en 1998 ; ni les montants, ni, pour les raisons ci-dessus, les ratios ne peuvent être chaînés à la série post-1990 du tableau précédent sans avoir d’abord testé si les deux périodes relèvent du même régime budgétaire." }, "bcc-monnaie": { "name_en": "Broad money, rebuilt from the balance sheets of the central bank and the banks", "name_fr": "La monnaie au sens large, reconstituée à partir des bilans de la banque centrale et des banques", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Rapport annuel 2024 (tableaux I|1|3, I|1|20, I|1|35, I|2|15 et I|4|9) ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Broad money, CDF bn", "Monnaie au sens large, milliards CDF" ], [ "Growth, %", "Croissance, %" ], [ "Of which net foreign assets, points", "Dont avoirs extérieurs nets, points" ], [ "Of which net domestic assets, points", "Dont avoirs intérieurs nets, points" ], [ "Real growth, %", "Croissance réelle, %" ], [ "Broad money, % of GDP", "Monnaie large, % du PIB" ], [ "Private credit, % of GDP", "Crédit au secteur privé, % du PIB" ], [ "Velocity", "Vitesse de circulation" ], [ "Money multiplier", "Multiplicateur monétaire" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 ], "rows": [ [ "2015", 4130.0, "—", "—", "—", "—", 11.8, 5.8, "—", 3.31 ], [ "2016", 5079.0, 22.98, -6.1, 29.1, 10.6, 13.5, 7.1, 8.15, 3.18 ], [ "2017", 7248.0, 42.69, 31.4, 11.3, -7.8, 13.0, 5.7, 9.03, 3.74 ], [ "2018", 9208.0, 27.05, 10.3, 16.7, 18.5, 11.9, 5.5, 9.38, 3.74 ], [ "2019", 12514.0, 35.9, 17.5, 18.4, 29.9, 14.7, 5.7, 7.85, 3.55 ], [ "2020", 18261.0, 45.92, 39.1, 6.8, 26.0, 20.2, 7.1, 5.86, 5.0 ], [ "2021", 24957.0, 36.67, 41.4, -4.7, 29.8, 22.7, 6.9, 5.1, 4.63 ], [ "2022", 25827.0, 3.49, -7.0, 10.4, -8.5, 19.6, 8.5, 5.2, 3.46 ], [ "2023", 36231.0, 40.28, 19.9, 20.3, 13.3, 22.1, 11.3, 5.28, 4.07 ], [ "2024", 46403.0, 28.08, 23.0, 5.1, 14.7, 23.2, 12.1, 4.83, 4.4 ] ], "note_en": "Rebuilt from the monetary survey of the depository institutions and the central bank’s own balance sheet, as the Banque centrale du Congo publishes them in the standardised reporting form. Two accounting identities are checked for every year and hold to the franc: net foreign assets plus net domestic assets equal broad money, and currency plus transferable deposits plus other deposits equal broad money. The two contribution columns are the change in each side divided by broad money of the year before, so they add up to growth. Broad money includes deposits in foreign currency, valued at the exchange rate of the end of the year; a depreciation therefore raises it without any new credit, and in 2020 and 2021 net foreign assets alone account for 39 and 41 of the 46 and 37 points of growth. Velocity is nominal GDP over the average of broad money at the two ends of the year, and it has fallen from 9.4 in 2018 to 4.8 in 2024 while broad money doubled as a share of output. The multiplier is broad money over the central bank’s monetary base. Real growth deflates by the December-to-December consumer price index. The central bank marks its most recent figures as provisional or estimated.", "note_fr": "Reconstitué à partir de la situation monétaire des institutions de dépôts et du bilan propre de la banque centrale, tels que la Banque centrale du Congo les publie dans le format standardisé. Deux identités comptables sont vérifiées chaque année et tiennent au franc près : avoirs extérieurs nets plus avoirs intérieurs nets égalent la monnaie au sens large, et numéraire plus dépôts transférables plus autres dépôts l’égalent aussi. Les deux colonnes de contribution rapportent la variation de chaque côté à la monnaie large de l’année précédente, de sorte qu’elles somment à la croissance. La monnaie large comprend les dépôts en devises, évalués au cours de fin d’année : une dépréciation la gonfle sans aucun crédit nouveau, et en 2020 et 2021 les seuls avoirs extérieurs nets expliquent 39 et 41 des 46 et 37 points de croissance. La vitesse est le PIB nominal rapporté à la moyenne de la monnaie large aux deux bouts de l’année ; elle est tombée de 9,4 en 2018 à 4,8 en 2024 tandis que la monnaie large doublait en proportion de la production. Le multiplicateur est la monnaie large rapportée à la base monétaire de la banque centrale. La croissance réelle déflate par l’indice des prix de décembre à décembre. La banque centrale signale ses chiffres les plus récents comme provisoires ou estimés." }, "bcc-bilan": { "name_en": "The central bank’s own balance sheet: reserves, domestic assets and the monetary base", "name_fr": "Le bilan propre de la banque centrale : réserves, actifs intérieurs et base monétaire", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Rapport annuel 2024 (tableaux I|1|3, I|1|20, I|1|35, I|2|15 et I|4|9) ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Net foreign assets, CDF bn", "Avoirs extérieurs nets, milliards CDF" ], [ "Net domestic assets, CDF bn", "Avoirs intérieurs nets, milliards CDF" ], [ "Net claims on the central government, CDF bn", "Créances nettes sur l’administration centrale, milliards CDF" ], [ "Monetary base, CDF bn", "Base monétaire, milliards CDF" ], [ "Currency in circulation, CDF bn", "Circulation fiduciaire, milliards CDF" ], [ "Base growth, %", "Croissance de la base, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2015", 111, 1136, 814, 1247, 868, "—" ], [ "2016", -449, 2045, 1324, 1596, 1153, 27.92 ], [ "2017", -571, 2507, 1272, 1936, 1455, 21.34 ], [ "2018", -311, 2774, 1502, 2463, 1690, 27.21 ], [ "2019", -79, 3606, 2104, 3527, 1934, 43.21 ], [ "2020", -543, 4199, 2318, 3655, 2449, 3.63 ], [ "2021", 2989, 2400, 1528, 5389, 3045, 47.43 ], [ "2022", 4524, 2931, 2770, 7455, 3797, 38.34 ], [ "2023", 6660, 2244, 3451, 8904, 4832, 19.44 ], [ "2024", 10341, 211, 2743, 10552, 5494, 18.51 ] ], "note_en": "The balance sheet of the Banque centrale du Congo alone, before consolidation with the banks. In every year, net foreign assets plus net domestic assets equal the monetary base published in the same table, to the franc. Net foreign assets were negative from 2016 to 2020 and stood at 10.3 trillion francs in 2024, which is almost the whole of the 10.6 trillion base: the base is now backed almost entirely by foreign assets. Net claims on the central government peaked at 3.5 trillion in 2023 and fell to 2.7 trillion in 2024, but other net items of the balance sheet offset them, so that net domestic assets stand at only 0.2 trillion.", "note_fr": "Le bilan de la seule Banque centrale du Congo, avant consolidation avec les banques. Chaque année, les avoirs extérieurs nets plus les avoirs intérieurs nets égalent la base monétaire publiée dans le même tableau, au franc près. Les avoirs extérieurs nets étaient négatifs de 2016 à 2020 et atteignaient 10,3 mille milliards de francs en 2024, soit presque toute la base de 10,6 mille milliards : la base est désormais adossée presque entièrement à des avoirs extérieurs. Les créances nettes sur l’administration centrale ont culminé à 3,5 mille milliards en 2023 et sont revenues à 2,7 en 2024, mais d’autres postes nets du bilan les compensent, si bien que les avoirs intérieurs nets ne sont que de 0,2 mille milliard." }, "bcc-budget": { "name_en": "The public accounts as the central bank integrates them", "name_fr": "Les comptes publics tels que la banque centrale les intègre", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Rapport annuel 2024 (tableaux I|1|3, I|1|20, I|1|35, I|2|15 et I|4|9) ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Revenue excl. grants, % of GDP", "Recettes hors dons, % du PIB" ], [ "Grants, % of GDP", "Dons, % du PIB" ], [ "Expenditure, % of GDP", "Dépenses, % du PIB" ], [ "Capital share of expenditure, %", "Part des dépenses en capital, %" ], [ "Balance excl. grants, % of GDP", "Solde hors dons, % du PIB" ], [ "Statistical adjustment, % of GDP", "Ajustement statistique, % du PIB" ], [ "Overall balance, % of GDP", "Solde global, % du PIB" ], [ "Non-monetary financing, % of GDP", "Financement non monétaire, % du PIB" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2015", 12.64, 3.67, 16.83, 29.6, -4.19, -0.17, -0.7, 0.0 ], [ "2016", 9.75, 3.48, 14.38, 30.5, -4.63, -0.13, -1.28, 0.0 ], [ "2017", 9.57, 3.91, 13.48, 39.8, -3.91, -0.01, -0.02, 0.0 ], [ "2018", 10.26, 2.29, 12.75, 30.0, -2.5, 0.2, -0.03, 0.0 ], [ "2019", 8.6, 8.34, 17.69, 25.8, -9.09, -0.26, -1.04, 0.13 ], [ "2020", 9.55, 5.5, 14.16, 33.9, -4.61, -1.49, -0.63, 0.63 ], [ "2021", 12.55, 4.22, 14.99, 29.9, -2.44, -1.25, 0.49, 0.23 ], [ "2022", 13.99, 5.05, 18.57, 28.0, -4.58, -0.67, -0.23, 0.14 ], [ "2023", 12.69, 3.46, 14.69, 32.1, -1.99, -2.32, -0.89, 0.29 ], [ "2024", 13.78, 3.07, 19.59, 34.0, -5.81, 2.5, -0.28, 0.79 ] ], "note_en": "Rebuilt from the integrated operations of the general government (table I|2|15 of the annual report). Every identity is checked: revenue plus grants equals total revenue, current plus capital spending equals total expenditure, and financing equals minus the overall balance. The overall balance, as the central bank defines it, is the balance plus the statistical adjustment less the surplus of the social security funds. The headline is therefore misleading in two ways. Grants appear on both sides, as revenue and as the donor-financed spending they pay for, so that they cancel; without them the deficit was 5.8 per cent of output in 2024, not 0.3. And the statistical adjustment, which is the unexplained gap between the two sources, is larger than the overall balance itself: minus 2.3 per cent of output in 2023 and plus 2.5 in 2024. The percentages use the central bank’s own nominal GDP, which is 8 per cent lower than the Fund’s figure for 2024. The Fund’s table of public finances elsewhere on this page counts expenditure at 16.4 per cent of output in 2024 against 19.6 here; the difference, 3.2 points, is close to the 3.1 points of donor-financed spending that the central bank counts, so the two tables do not measure the same perimeter. Before 2019 the central bank reports no non-monetary financing; the dash in its table is shown here as zero.", "note_fr": "Reconstitué à partir de la situation intégrée des opérations des administrations publiques (tableau I|2|15 du rapport annuel). Chaque identité est vérifiée : recettes plus dons égalent recettes totales, dépenses courantes plus dépenses en capital égalent dépenses totales, et le financement égale l’opposé du solde global. Le solde global, tel que la banque centrale le définit, est le solde plus l’ajustement statistique moins l’excédent des caisses de sécurité sociale. Le chiffre d’appel trompe donc de deux façons. Les dons figurent des deux côtés, en recettes et en dépenses financées par les bailleurs, de sorte qu’ils s’annulent ; sans eux le déficit était de 5,8 pour cent de la production en 2024, non de 0,3. Et l’ajustement statistique, l’écart inexpliqué entre les deux sources, est plus grand que le solde global lui-même : moins 2,3 pour cent de la production en 2023 et plus 2,5 en 2024. Les pourcentages utilisent le PIB nominal de la banque centrale, inférieur de 8 pour cent à celui du Fonds en 2024. Le tableau des finances publiques du Fonds, ailleurs sur cette page, compte des dépenses de 16,4 pour cent de la production en 2024 contre 19,6 ici ; l’écart de 3,2 points est proche des 3,1 points de dépenses financées par les bailleurs que la banque centrale compte, de sorte que les deux tableaux ne mesurent pas le même périmètre. Avant 2019, la banque centrale ne déclare aucun financement non monétaire." }, "bcc-inflation": { "name_en": "Three measures of inflation, and what the central bank publishes", "name_fr": "Trois mesures de l’inflation, et ce que publie la banque centrale", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Rapport annuel 2024 (tableaux I|1|3, I|1|20, I|1|35, I|2|15 et I|4|9) ; calculs de l’auteur. Indice des prix mensuel de l’auteur : série de l’Institut national de la statistique relayée par la banque centrale.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Consumer prices, annual average, %", "Prix à la consommation, moyenne annuelle, %" ], [ "Consumer prices, December on December, %", "Prix à la consommation, décembre sur décembre, %" ], [ "GDP deflator, %", "Déflateur du PIB, %" ], [ "Deflator minus consumer prices, points", "Déflateur moins prix à la consommation, points" ], [ "Copper price, annual average change, %", "Cuivre, variation de la moyenne annuelle, %" ], [ "Published by the central bank, average, %", "Publié par la banque centrale, moyenne, %" ], [ "Published by the central bank, December on December, %", "Publié par la banque centrale, décembre sur décembre, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2015", 0.7, 0.8, -1.2, -1.9, -19.7, "—", "—" ], [ "2016", 3.2, 11.2, 4.3, 1.1, -11.7, "—", "—" ], [ "2017", 35.7, 54.7, 43.1, 7.4, 26.7, "—", "—" ], [ "2018", 29.3, 7.2, 31.0, 1.7, 5.8, "—", "—" ], [ "2019", 4.7, 4.6, 5.9, 1.2, -8.0, 4.8, 4.6 ], [ "2020", 11.4, 15.8, 3.9, -7.5, 2.7, 11.0, 15.8 ], [ "2021", 9.0, 5.3, 15.0, 6.0, 50.9, 9.4, 5.3 ], [ "2022", 9.3, 13.1, 10.1, 0.8, -5.2, 9.1, 13.1 ], [ "2023", 19.9, 23.8, 14.2, -5.7, -3.8, 19.5, 23.8 ], [ "2024", 17.7, 11.7, 14.3, -3.4, 7.7, 18.2, 11.7 ] ], "note_en": "The first two columns are computed from the monthly consumer price index (December 2011 = 100); the third divides the central bank’s nominal GDP by its GDP at 2005 prices and takes the yearly change, and it reproduces the deflator variation the central bank prints, to the decimal, in every year from 2006 to 2024. December on December agrees with the central bank’s published cumulative figure in all six years it prints. The annual average does not: my averages differ from the printed ones by between 0.1 and 0.5 point (17.7 against 18.2 in 2024). Neither a ratio of yearly averages nor an average of twelve yearly changes reproduces the printed figure, and the statistical institute compiles a weekly index, so the likely cause is that the central bank averages weekly readings where I average monthly ones; I could not verify it. The average and the December figures differ by up to 22 points (2018: 29.3 against 7.2) because they answer different questions: the average compares the price level of two years, the December figure the speed of prices over the last twelve months. The deflator follows the average and not the December figure, as it should, since GDP is a flow measured at average prices. It departs from consumer prices for a different reason: it prices all output, including copper and cobalt exports, whereas the consumer basket is 70 per cent food. In the nine years 2016 to 2024 the gap between the two correlates at 0.57 with the change in the copper price and at 0.22 with the depreciation of the franc. With nine observations that is suggestive and nothing more.", "note_fr": "Les deux premières colonnes sont calculées sur l’indice mensuel des prix à la consommation (décembre 2011 = 100) ; la troisième divise le PIB nominal de la banque centrale par son PIB aux prix de 2005 et en prend la variation annuelle : elle reproduit au dixième près la variation du déflateur imprimée par la banque centrale, chaque année de 2006 à 2024. Décembre sur décembre concorde avec le cumul publié par la banque centrale les six années où elle l’imprime. La moyenne annuelle ne concorde pas : mes moyennes diffèrent des chiffres imprimés de 0,1 à 0,5 point (17,7 contre 18,2 en 2024). Ni le rapport des moyennes annuelles ni la moyenne de douze glissements ne retrouve le chiffre imprimé, et l’Institut national de la statistique compile un indice hebdomadaire : la cause probable est que la banque centrale moyenne des relevés hebdomadaires là où je moyenne des relevés mensuels ; je n’ai pas pu le vérifier. La moyenne et le chiffre de décembre diffèrent jusqu’à 22 points (2018 : 29,3 contre 7,2) parce qu’ils répondent à deux questions : la moyenne compare le niveau des prix de deux années, le chiffre de décembre la vitesse des prix sur les douze derniers mois. Le déflateur suit la moyenne et non décembre, ce qui est normal puisque le PIB est un flux mesuré aux prix moyens. Il s’écarte des prix à la consommation pour une autre raison : il prend en compte toute la production, cuivre et cobalt exportés compris, alors que le panier de consommation compte 70 pour cent d’alimentation. Sur les neuf années 2016 à 2024, l’écart entre les deux est corrélé à 0,57 avec la variation du prix du cuivre et à 0,22 avec la dépréciation du franc. Avec neuf observations, c’est un indice et rien de plus." }, "bcc-panier": { "name_en": "What drove prices in 2024: the twelve functions of the consumer basket", "name_fr": "Ce qui a fait monter les prix en 2024 : les douze fonctions du panier de consommation", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Rapport annuel 2024 (tableaux I|1|3, I|1|20, I|1|35, I|2|15 et I|4|9) ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Function of consumption", "Fonction de consommation" ], [ "Weight, %", "Poids, %" ], [ "Index, December 2023", "Indice, décembre 2023" ], [ "Index, December 2024", "Indice, décembre 2024" ], [ "Change, %", "Variation, %" ], [ "Contribution to inflation, points", "Contribution à l’inflation, points" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2, 1, 1, 1, 2 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Food and non-alcoholic beverages", "Produits alimentaires et boissons non alcoolisées" ], 70.02, 380.38, 421.02, 10.7, 6.84 ], [ [ "Alcohol, tobacco and narcotics", "Boissons alcoolisées, tabacs et stupéfiants" ], 2.16, 253.43, 269.13, 6.2, 0.08 ], [ [ "Clothing and footwear", "Articles d’habillement et chaussures" ], 4.53, 425.89, 468.36, 10.0, 0.46 ], [ [ "Housing, water, gas, electricity and other fuels", "Logement, eau, gaz, électricité et autres combustibles" ], 3.8, 977.5, 1113.72, 13.9, 1.24 ], [ [ "Furnishings, household equipment and routine upkeep", "Meubles, articles de ménage et entretien courant du foyer" ], 3.61, 348.39, 390.61, 12.1, 0.37 ], [ [ "Health", "Santé" ], 1.96, 521.08, 577.31, 10.8, 0.27 ], [ [ "Transport", "Transports" ], 4.42, 385.96, 473.45, 22.7, 0.93 ], [ [ "Communications", "Communications" ], 0.48, 314.18, 335.93, 6.9, 0.03 ], [ [ "Recreation and culture", "Loisir et culture" ], 2.18, 340.5, 382.35, 12.3, 0.22 ], [ [ "Education", "Enseignement" ], 1.03, 415.1, 439.35, 5.8, 0.06 ], [ [ "Restaurants and hotels", "Restaurants et hôtels" ], 1.49, 645.01, 782.08, 21.3, 0.49 ], [ [ "Miscellaneous goods and services", "Biens et services divers" ], 4.32, 575.54, 642.65, 11.7, 0.7 ] ], "note_en": "Recomputed from the twelve sub-indices and the fixed weights the central bank prints. The weighted sum of the sub-indices gives a general index of 415.78 in December 2023 and 464.38 in December 2024, against 415.77 and 464.36 printed, and an inflation of 11.69 per cent, the printed figure to the hundredth; the contributions I recompute match the printed ones to the hundredth, except housing, which I get as 1.24 points against 1.25. Food alone contributes 6.84 of the 11.69 points because it weighs 70 per cent. Housing, water and electricity rose almost 14 per cent and contributes 1.25 points on a weight of 3.8 per cent. The weights are those of the December 2011 base and have not been revised in fifteen years. I found no index published by province, in the central bank’s report or in the other sources I could read: the index covers the country as a whole, so an inflation rate by province cannot be built from published data.", "note_fr": "Recalculé à partir des douze sous-indices et des pondérations fixes que la banque centrale imprime. La somme pondérée des sous-indices donne un indice général de 415,78 en décembre 2023 et de 464,38 en décembre 2024, contre 415,77 et 464,36 imprimés, et une inflation de 11,69 pour cent, le chiffre imprimé au centième ; les contributions que je recalcule coïncident avec les contributions imprimées au centième près, sauf le logement, que je trouve à 1,24 point contre 1,25. L’alimentation seule apporte 6,84 des 11,69 points parce qu’elle pèse 70 pour cent. Le logement, l’eau et l’électricité ont monté de presque 14 pour cent et apportent 1,25 point pour un poids de 3,8 pour cent. Les pondérations sont celles du panier de décembre 2011 et n’ont pas été révisées depuis quinze ans. Je n’ai trouvé aucun indice publié par province, ni dans le rapport de la banque centrale ni dans les autres sources que j’ai pu lire : l’indice couvre le pays entier, de sorte qu’un taux d’inflation par province ne peut pas être construit à partir de données publiées." }, "panel-catalogue": { "name_en": "Monthly panel of the DR Congo: series, transformations and tests", "name_fr": "Le panel mensuel de la RD Congo : séries, transformations et tests", "source": "Fortin-Gagnon, Leroux, Stevanovic et Surprenant (2022), Canadian Journal of Economics 55 : 1799-1833, pour la méthode ; sources des séries : BCC, INS, Banque mondiale (Pink Sheet), Réserve fédérale ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Series", "Série" ], [ "Group", "Groupe" ], [ "Transformation", "Transformation" ], [ "From", "Début" ], [ "To", "Fin" ], [ "Observations", "Observations" ], [ "ADF t-statistic", "Statistique t de Dickey-Fuller" ], [ "Seasonality, Kruskal-Wallis p", "Saisonnalité, p de Kruskal-Wallis" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 3 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Consumer price index (Dec 2011 = 100)", "Indice des prix à la consommation (déc. 2011 = 100)" ], [ "Prices", "Prix" ], "100 × Δ log", "2013-01", "2025-08", 152, -3.14, 0.994 ], [ [ "Broad money, CDF million", "Monnaie au sens large, millions de CDF" ], [ "Money and credit", "Monnaie et crédit" ], "100 × Δ log", "2013-01", "2025-08", 152, -12.31, 0.004 ], [ [ "International reserves", "Réserves internationales" ], [ "Money and credit", "Monnaie et crédit" ], "100 × Δ log", "2013-01", "2025-08", 152, -10.82, 0.469 ], [ [ "Exchange rate, CDF per US dollar", "Taux de change, CDF par dollar américain" ], [ "Exchange rate", "Change" ], "100 × Δ log", "2013-01", "2025-08", 152, -3.94, 0.585 ], [ [ "Policy rate, per cent", "Taux directeur, en pourcentage" ], [ "Money and credit", "Monnaie et crédit" ], "Δ niveau", "2013-01", "2025-08", 152, -11.42, 0.951 ], [ [ "Trade balance, US$ million", "Solde commercial, millions de dollars" ], [ "Trade", "Échanges" ], "niveau", "2013-01", "2023-12", 132, -9.61, 0.361 ], [ [ "Federal funds rate, per cent", "Taux des fonds fédéraux, en pourcentage" ], [ "World", "Monde" ], "Δ niveau", "2013-01", "2025-08", 152, -3.22, 0.362 ], [ [ "Copper, $/t", "Cuivre, $/t" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -18.03, 0.007 ], [ [ "Tin, $/t", "Étain, $/t" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -19.89, 0.295 ], [ [ "Zinc, $/t", "Zinc, $/t" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -20.85, 0.282 ], [ [ "Gold, $/toz", "Or, $/once" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -18.99, 0.241 ], [ [ "Brent, $/bbl", "Brent, $/baril" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -22.68, 0.052 ], [ [ "Cocoa, $/kg", "Cacao, $/kg" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -23.15, 0.349 ], [ [ "Coffee arabica, $/kg", "Café arabica, $/kg" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -21.42, 0.154 ], [ [ "Coffee robusta, $/kg", "Café robusta, $/kg" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -20.64, 0.83 ], [ [ "Palm oil, $/t", "Huile de palme, $/t" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -19.24, 0.007 ], [ [ "Rubber TSR20, $/kg", "Caoutchouc TSR20, $/kg" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1999-01", "2026-09", 333, -12.85, 0.009 ], [ [ "Logs Africa, $/cum", "Grumes Afrique, $/m3" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1970-01", "2026-09", 681, -23.7, 0.226 ], [ [ "Precious metals, 2010=100", "Métaux précieux, 2010=100" ], [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], "100 × Δ log", "1960-01", "2026-09", 801, -19.56, 0.278 ] ], "note_en": "Modelled on the Canadian database of Fortin-Gagnon and co-authors: each series carries a transformation that makes it stationary (100 × log difference for prices, money, reserves, the exchange rate and commodity prices; first difference for interest rates; level for the trade balance, which changes sign). The augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic is below the 5 per cent critical value of −2.86 for every series, so the rule holds. A Kruskal-Wallis p below 0.05 flags residual seasonality in the transformed series: broad money, copper, palm oil and rubber. Nothing was seasonally adjusted. Eight monthly series of the site's working file (GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, revenue, expenditure, hours) are left out because they are smoothed from annual or quarterly data. The DR Congo has no monthly series for production, employment or housing, so the panel is made of prices, money, the exchange rate, trade and world conditions. Gaps are not filled. Files: data/panel/rdc_panel_brut.csv, rdc_panel_stationnaire.csv, rdc_panel_catalogue.csv.", "note_fr": "Construit sur le modèle de la base canadienne de Fortin-Gagnon et coauteurs : chaque série porte une transformation qui la rend stationnaire (100 × différence de logarithmes pour les prix, la monnaie, les réserves, le taux de change et les cours ; différence première pour les taux d’intérêt ; niveau pour le solde commercial, qui change de signe). La statistique de Dickey-Fuller augmentée passe sous la valeur critique de −2,86 à 5 % pour toutes les séries : la règle tient. Un p de Kruskal-Wallis inférieur à 0,05 signale une saisonnalité résiduelle dans la série transformée : monnaie large, cuivre, huile de palme et caoutchouc. Rien n’a été désaisonnalisé. Huit séries mensuelles du fichier de travail du site (PIB, consommation, investissement, exportations, importations, recettes, dépenses, heures) sont écartées parce qu’elles sont lissées à partir de données annuelles ou trimestrielles. La RD Congo n’a pas de série mensuelle de production, d’emploi ou de logement : le panel se compose de prix, de monnaie, de change, d’échanges et de conditions mondiales. Les trous ne sont pas comblés. Fichiers : data/panel/rdc_panel_brut.csv, rdc_panel_stationnaire.csv, rdc_panel_catalogue.csv." }, "panel-facteurs": { "name_en": "How much of the panel a few common factors carry", "name_fr": "Ce que portent quelques facteurs communs du panel", "source": "Fortin-Gagnon, Leroux, Stevanovic et Surprenant (2022), Canadian Journal of Economics 55 : 1799-1833, pour la méthode ; sources des séries : BCC, INS, Banque mondiale (Pink Sheet), Réserve fédérale ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Principal component", "Composante principale" ], [ "Share of variance, %", "Part de la variance, %" ], [ "Cumulative share, %", "Part cumulée, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ 1, 22.6, 22.6 ], [ 2, 10.2, 32.8 ], [ 3, 9.2, 42.0 ], [ 4, 8.4, 50.4 ] ], "note_en": "Principal components of the balanced panel of 19 series, 2013-02 to 2023-12 (131 months), standardised and transformed. The first component carries 22.6 per cent of the variance and loads mostly on the metal prices; the first four carry 50.4 per cent. The Canadian database is far more factorial because it has hundreds of series that move with one business cycle; here the series are few and driven by different forces.", "note_fr": "Composantes principales du panel équilibré de 19 séries, de 2013-02 à 2023-12 (131 mois), standardisées et transformées. La première composante porte 22,6 % de la variance et charge surtout les cours des métaux ; les quatre premières en portent 50,4 %. La base canadienne est bien plus factorielle, parce que ses centaines de séries suivent un même cycle ; ici les séries sont peu nombreuses et obéissent à des forces différentes." }, "bcc-pib3": { "name_en": "Three measures of GDP: current prices, 2005 prices, and chained 2024 francs", "name_fr": "Trois mesures du PIB : prix courants, prix de 2005 et francs de 2024 enchaînés", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Rapport annuel 2024 (tableaux I|1|3, I|1|20, I|1|35, I|2|15 et I|4|9) ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Nominal GDP (current prices), CDF trillion", "PIB nominal (prix courants), billions de CDF" ], [ "Real GDP (2005 prices), CDF trillion", "PIB réel (prix de 2005), billions de CDF" ], [ "Chained GDP (2024 francs), CDF trillion", "PIB enchaîné (francs de 2024), billions de CDF" ], [ "Implicit deflator (2005 = 100)", "Déflateur implicite (2005 = 100)" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2, 2, 2, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2005", 5.67, 5.67, 65.59, 100.0 ], [ "2006", 6.77, 5.97, 69.08, 113.3 ], [ "2007", 8.65, 6.35, 73.41, 136.3 ], [ "2008", 11.07, 6.74, 77.98, 164.2 ], [ "2009", 15.1, 6.93, 80.21, 217.8 ], [ "2010", 19.54, 7.43, 85.91, 263.1 ], [ "2011", 23.76, 7.94, 91.81, 299.4 ], [ "2012", 26.95, 8.5, 98.32, 317.2 ], [ "2013", 30.05, 9.22, 106.66, 325.9 ], [ "2014", 33.22, 10.09, 116.76, 329.2 ], [ "2015", 35.11, 10.79, 124.84, 325.4 ], [ "2016", 37.52, 11.05, 127.83, 339.5 ], [ "2017", 55.68, 11.46, 132.59, 485.8 ], [ "2018", 77.18, 12.13, 140.31, 636.3 ], [ "2019", 85.31, 12.66, 146.47, 673.9 ], [ "2020", 90.18, 12.88, 149.01, 700.1 ], [ "2021", 110.11, 13.68, 158.25, 805.0 ], [ "2022", 132.06, 14.9, 172.37, 886.4 ], [ "2023", 163.78, 16.18, 187.21, 1012.1 ], [ "2024", 199.72, 17.26, 199.72, 1156.9 ] ], "note_en": "Nominal and 2005-price GDP are the central bank's annual series (Annual Report 2024). The chained series applies the real growth rates, year by year, backwards from 2024 current francs, so that it equals nominal GDP in 2024 and measures every earlier year in 2024 prices. Because the central bank publishes only the aggregate, not the expenditure or sector components, this is a chain-linked volume index on the aggregate and not a Fisher or Törnqvist chain-weighted aggregate; it differs from rebasing the 2005-price series only if the published growth rates differ from the implied ones, and they do not (the two agree to the decimal for 2006-2024). The gap between the nominal and the real line is the price level: the deflator rose elevenfold since 2005, so nominal GDP overstates growth in output. The bcc.cd page for 2025-2026 gives real GDP of 18,504 and 19,561 billion francs at 2005 prices, which implies growth of 7.2 per cent in 2025 against the 5.7 per cent printed; I did not extend the series until the two are reconciled. The IMF-based nominal GDP in the national-accounts table (216,585 billion in 2024) also differs from the central bank's 199,717 billion.", "note_fr": "Les PIB nominal et aux prix de 2005 sont les séries annuelles de la banque centrale (Rapport annuel 2024). La série enchaînée applique les taux de croissance réels, année après année, en remontant depuis les francs courants de 2024 ; elle égale donc le PIB nominal en 2024 et mesure chaque année antérieure en prix de 2024. La banque centrale ne publie que l'agrégat, non les composantes par dépense ou par secteur : il s'agit d'un indice de volume enchaîné sur l'agrégat et non d'un agrégat à pondérations enchaînées de type Fisher ou Törnqvist. Il ne diffère d'un simple changement de base de la série aux prix de 2005 que si les taux de croissance publiés s'écartent des taux implicites, ce qui n'est pas le cas (les deux concordent à la décimale de 2006 à 2024). L'écart entre les courbes nominale et réelle est le niveau des prix : le déflateur a été multiplié par plus de onze depuis 2005, de sorte que le PIB nominal surestime la croissance de la production. La page bcc.cd donne pour 2025 et 2026 un PIB réel de 18 504 et 19 561 milliards de francs aux prix de 2005, ce qui implique une croissance de 7,2 pour cent en 2025 contre 5,7 pour cent imprimés ; je n'ai pas prolongé la série avant que l'écart soit expliqué. Le PIB nominal du tableau des comptes nationaux (216 585 milliards en 2024, source FMI) diffère aussi de celui de la banque centrale (199 717 milliards)." }, "panier-detail": { "name_en": "Household basket in Kinshasa, October 2025: retail prices before and after the announced cut", "name_fr": "Panier de la ménagère à Kinshasa, octobre 2025 : prix de détail avant et après la baisse annoncée", "source": "Scoop RDC, « Kinshasa : baisse des prix jusqu'à 24 % sur les produits de base », 30 octobre 2025 (prix relevés dans les enseignes SOKIN, SOCIMEX et Maison NGOMA) ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Product (store)", "Produit (enseigne)" ], [ "Unit", "Unité" ], [ "Price before, CDF", "Prix avant, CDF" ], [ "Price after, CDF", "Prix après, CDF" ], [ "Change, %", "Variation, %" ], [ "Index (before = 100)", "Indice (avant = 100)" ] ], "chiffres": [ 0, 0, 0, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ [ "Rice (SOKIN)", "Riz (SOKIN)" ], "25 kg", 60200, 49500, -17.8, 82.2 ], [ [ "Wheat flour (SOKIN)", "Farine de blé (SOKIN)" ], "25 kg", 95200, 78200, -17.9, 82.1 ], [ [ "Sugar (SOKIN)", "Sucre (SOKIN)" ], "50 kg", 140000, 115000, -17.9, 82.1 ], [ [ "Salt (SOKIN)", "Sel (SOKIN)" ], "25 kg", 22400, 18400, -17.9, 82.1 ], [ [ "Refined oil (SOKIN)", "Huile raffinée (SOKIN)" ], "10 L", 116900, 99130, -15.2, 84.8 ], [ [ "Rice (Wario) (SOCIMEX)", "Riz (Wario) (SOCIMEX)" ], "25 kg", 60900, 48300, -20.7, 79.3 ], [ [ "Sugar (Lion) (SOCIMEX)", "Sucre (Lion) (SOCIMEX)" ], "50 kg", 158000, 119600, -24.3, 75.7 ], [ [ "Semolina (SOCIMEX)", "Semoule (SOCIMEX)" ], "25 kg", 62350, 48300, -22.5, 77.5 ], [ [ "Refined oil (Rigina) (Maison NGOMA)", "Huile raffinée (Rigina) (Maison NGOMA)" ], "10 L", 120000, 110000, -8.3, 91.7 ], [ [ "Unweighted geometric mean (Jevons index)", "Moyenne géométrique simple (indice de Jevons)" ], "—", "—", "—", -18.2, 81.8 ], [ [ "Cost of one unit of each SOKIN product, CDF", "Coût d'une unité de chaque produit SOKIN, CDF" ], "—", 434700, 360230, -17.1, 82.9 ] ], "note_en": "No official series of household-basket prices is published in a form I could retrieve: the central bank publishes the consumer price index (twelve functions, fixed 2011 weights, see the table above), and the ministry of the national economy communicates prices to the press without publishing a dated series. This table is therefore a one-time retail snapshot of nine staples, not a price index over time. The press report gives no date for the 'before' prices, and the figures are shelf prices in three chains, which can embed promotions. The unweighted geometric mean of the nine price relatives is -18.2 per cent. I did not apply the central bank's weights because the products are too few to map onto its twelve functions. Rows whose unit was not stated (a refined oil, a salt sachet, salted fish) are left out, and a January 2025 report of a 292,800 franc sack of sugar was not used because its pack size is not given.", "note_fr": "Aucune série officielle de prix du panier de la ménagère n'est publiée sous une forme que j'ai pu récupérer : la banque centrale publie l'indice des prix à la consommation (douze fonctions, pondérations fixes de 2011, voir le tableau ci-dessus), et le ministère de l'Économie nationale communique des prix à la presse sans publier de série datée. Ce tableau est donc un relevé de détail ponctuel de neuf produits de base, et non un indice dans le temps. L'article ne date pas les prix « avant », et ce sont des prix en rayon dans trois enseignes, qui peuvent inclure des promotions. La moyenne géométrique simple des neuf rapports de prix est de -18,2 pour cent. Je n'ai pas appliqué les pondérations de la banque centrale : les produits sont trop peu nombreux pour être rattachés à ses douze fonctions. Les lignes sans unité précisée (une huile raffinée, un sachet de sel, le poisson salé) sont écartées, de même qu'un sac de sucre à 292 800 francs rapporté en janvier 2025, dont le conditionnement n'est pas donné." }, "pibhab-periodes": { "name_en": "GDP per head, 1960-2025: output growth, population growth and living standards", "name_fr": "Le PIB par habitant, 1960-2025 : croissance de la production, croissance démographique et niveau de vie", "source": "Banque mondiale, World Development Indicators (SP.POP.TOTL, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD), série annuelle 1960-2025 ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Period", "Période" ], [ "Real GDP, % a year", "PIB réel, % par an" ], [ "Population, % a year", "Population, % par an" ], [ "GDP per head, % a year", "PIB par habitant, % par an" ], [ "GDP per head, start, 2015 dollars", "PIB par habitant, début, dollars de 2015" ], [ "GDP per head, end, 2015 dollars", "PIB par habitant, fin, dollars de 2015" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2, 2, 2, 0, 0 ], "rows": [ [ "1960-1975", 2.81, 2.78, 0.03, 1303, 1310 ], [ "1975-1990", 0.08, 3.15, -2.98, 1310, 832 ], [ "1990-2002", -4.63, 3.23, -7.62, 832, 321 ], [ "2002-2025", 5.86, 3.28, 2.5, 321, 568 ], [ "1960-2025", 1.82, 3.13, -1.27, 1303, 568 ] ], "note_en": "Output per head is real GDP divided by population, so its growth rate equals the growth of GDP minus the growth of population (the third column is the first minus the second, up to rounding of compounded rates). The level of living standards, measured by output per head, peaked at 1 415 dollars of 2015 in 1974 and bottomed at 321 in 2002, a fall of 77 per cent. Three facts organise the table. First, population grew at 2.8 to 3.3 per cent a year in every period, so the burden on output is constant and about three points: GDP must grow faster than three per cent just to hold living standards. Second, the whole divergence of living standards is a story of output, not of population: between 1975 and 1990 output stagnated, then fell by 4.6 per cent a year in 1990-2002, and per-head output fell by 3,0 and 7,6 per cent a year. Third, the recovery since 2002 is real, 2,5 per cent a year per head, yet 2025 output per head, 568 dollars, remains 56 per cent below its 1960 level. Per-head output at purchasing power parity, the better guide to living standards, went from 2 404 in 1990 to 929 in 2002 and 1 641 in 2025 (constant international dollars), the same shape. The high fertility rate means demographic growth will keep absorbing roughly three points of growth for decades; closing the gap needs sustained growth well above that.", "note_fr": "Le produit par habitant est le PIB réel divisé par la population ; son taux de croissance égale donc celui du PIB moins celui de la population (la troisième colonne est la première moins la deuxième, aux arrondis près des taux composés). Le niveau de vie, mesuré par le produit par habitant, a culminé à 1 415 dollars de 2015 en 1974 et touché le fond à 321 en 2002, soit une chute de 77 pour cent. Trois faits organisent le tableau. D'abord, la population a crû de 2,8 à 3,3 pour cent par an dans toutes les périodes : le fardeau sur la production est constant, d'environ trois points, et le PIB doit croître de plus de trois pour cent rien que pour maintenir le niveau de vie. Ensuite, toute la divergence du niveau de vie est une affaire de production et non de population : entre 1975 et 1990 la production a stagné, puis reculé de 4,6 pour cent par an en 1990-2002, et le produit par habitant a baissé de 3,0 et de 7,6 pour cent par an. Enfin, la reprise depuis 2002 est réelle, 2,5 pour cent par an par habitant, mais le produit par habitant de 2025, 568 dollars, reste inférieur de 56 pour cent à celui de 1960. À parité de pouvoir d'achat, meilleur guide du niveau de vie, le produit par habitant est passé de 2 404 en 1990 à 929 en 2002 et 1 641 en 2025 (dollars internationaux constants), selon la même forme. La fécondité élevée fait que la croissance démographique continuera d'absorber environ trois points de croissance pendant des décennies ; combler l'écart exige une croissance soutenue bien supérieure." }, "bcc-multiplicateur": { "name_en": "The money multiplier of the DR Congo: currency drain, reserve ratio and velocity", "name_fr": "Le multiplicateur monétaire de la RD Congo : drainage en numéraire, coefficient de réserve et vitesse", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Rapport annuel 2024 (tableaux I|1|3, I|1|20, I|1|35, I|2|15 et I|4|9) ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Monetary base BM, CDF trillion", "Base monétaire BM, billions de CDF" ], [ "Broad money M, CDF trillion", "Monnaie au sens large M, billions de CDF" ], [ "Currency drain a = N/D", "Drainage en numéraire a = N/D" ], [ "Reserve ratio b = R/D", "Coefficient de réserve b = R/D" ], [ "Multiplier M/BM = (1+a)/(a+b)", "Multiplicateur M/BM = (1+a)/(a+b)" ], [ "Velocity V = GDP/M", "Vitesse V = PIB/M" ] ], "chiffres": [ 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2 ], "rows": [ [ "2015", 1.25, 4.13, 0.234, 0.139, 3.31, 8.5 ], [ "2016", 1.6, 5.08, 0.268, 0.13, 3.18, 7.39 ], [ "2017", 1.94, 7.25, 0.23, 0.099, 3.74, 7.68 ], [ "2018", 2.46, 9.21, 0.204, 0.118, 3.74, 8.38 ], [ "2019", 3.53, 12.51, 0.165, 0.163, 3.55, 6.82 ], [ "2020", 3.66, 18.26, 0.139, 0.089, 5.0, 4.94 ], [ "2021", 5.39, 24.96, 0.127, 0.117, 4.63, 4.41 ], [ "2022", 7.46, 25.83, 0.159, 0.176, 3.46, 5.11 ], [ "2023", 8.9, 36.23, 0.143, 0.138, 4.07, 4.52 ], [ "2024", 10.55, 46.4, 0.125, 0.131, 4.4, 4.3 ] ], "note_en": "Method of the course notes: with currency held by the public N = aD and bank reserves R = bD, broad money is M = D + N and the monetary base BM = N + R, so M/BM = (1 + a)/(a + b). Here N is the currency outside banks, D is M minus N (transferable and other deposits, in francs and in foreign currency), and R is BM minus N. The identity holds to the decimal in all ten years. The multiplier moved between 3,18 and 5,00, and the two behavioural coefficients explain it: the currency drain fell from 0,234 to 0,125 as deposits grew, which raises the multiplier, while the reserve ratio moved in a band of 0,089 to 0,176 which may reflect changes in the reserve requirement (a rise in b lowers the multiplier, as in 2019 and 2022). The 2020 peak of 5.00 combines the lowest reserve ratio with a fall in the drain. Two cautions for reading it. First, broad money includes deposits in foreign currency, which are in large part dollarised deposits, so the multiplier measures the whole financial system and not the creation of francs; a depreciation raises M in francs without any central bank action. Second, a multiplier is a ratio of stocks, not a causal coefficient: the base is the central bank's liability, but its growth was driven by financing the state and by foreign exchange purchases, and the multiplier amplifies it without commanding it. Velocity, the last column, fell from 8,5 to 4,3: monetisation, dollarisation and the spread of deposits mean a franc of broad money supports half the transactions it supported in 2015.", "note_fr": "Méthode des notes de cours : si le public détient du numéraire N = aD et les banques des réserves R = bD, la monnaie au sens large est M = D + N et la base monétaire BM = N + R, d'où M/BM = (1 + a)/(a + b). Ici N est le numéraire hors banques, D vaut M moins N (dépôts transférables et autres dépôts, en francs et en devises) et R vaut BM moins N. L'identité tient à la décimale pour les dix années. Le multiplicateur a oscillé entre 3,18 et 5,00, et les deux coefficients de comportement l'expliquent : le drainage en numéraire est passé de 0,234 à 0,125 à mesure que les dépôts augmentaient, ce qui relève le multiplicateur, tandis que le coefficient de réserve a évolué entre 0,089 et 0,176 ce qui peut refléter des changements du coefficient de réserves obligatoires (une hausse de b abaisse le multiplicateur, comme en 2019 et 2022). Le sommet de 2020, à 5,00, combine le coefficient de réserve le plus bas et une baisse du drainage. Deux précautions de lecture. D'abord, la monnaie au sens large inclut les dépôts en devises, en grande partie dollarisés : le multiplicateur mesure le système financier entier et non la création de francs ; une dépréciation relève M en francs sans aucune action de la banque centrale. Ensuite, un multiplicateur est un rapport de stocks et non un coefficient causal : la base est un passif de la banque centrale, mais sa croissance a été portée par le financement de l'État et les achats de devises, et le multiplicateur l'amplifie sans la commander. La vitesse, dernière colonne, est passée de 8,5 à 4,3 : monétisation, dollarisation et diffusion des dépôts font qu'un franc de monnaie large soutient la moitié des transactions qu'il soutenait en 2015." }, "bcc-tqm": { "name_en": "The quantity equation, year by year: money, velocity, output and the deflator", "name_fr": "L'équation d'échange, année par année : monnaie, vitesse, production et déflateur", "source": "Banque centrale du Congo, Rapport annuel 2024 (tableaux I|1|3, I|1|20, I|1|35, I|2|15 et I|4|9) ; calculs de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Year", "Année" ], [ "Broad money growth, %", "Croissance de la monnaie large, %" ], [ "Velocity change, %", "Variation de la vitesse, %" ], [ "Real GDP growth, %", "Croissance du PIB réel, %" ], [ "GDP deflator inflation, %", "Inflation du déflateur du PIB, %" ], [ "Excess money (money minus output growth), points", "Excès de monnaie (monnaie moins production), points" ], [ "Monetary base growth, %", "Croissance de la base monétaire, %" ] ], "chiffres": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rows": [ [ "2016", 23.0, -13.1, 2.4, 4.3, 20.6, 27.9 ], [ "2017", 42.7, 4.0, 3.7, 43.1, 39.0, 21.3 ], [ "2018", 27.0, 9.1, 5.8, 31.0, 21.2, 27.2 ], [ "2019", 35.9, -18.7, 4.4, 5.9, 31.5, 43.2 ], [ "2020", 45.9, -27.6, 1.7, 3.9, 44.2, 3.6 ], [ "2021", 36.7, -10.7, 6.2, 15.0, 30.5, 47.4 ], [ "2022", 3.5, 15.9, 8.9, 10.1, -5.4, 38.3 ], [ "2023", 40.3, -11.6, 8.6, 14.2, 31.7, 19.4 ], [ "2024", 28.1, -4.8, 6.7, 14.3, 21.4, 18.5 ] ], "note_en": "From MV = PY, growth rates give (1 + inflation) = (1 + money growth)(1 + velocity change)/(1 + output growth); the columns satisfy this identity to the decimal for the deflator, so it is an accounting statement and not a test. The theory predicts that inflation tracks money growth minus output growth when velocity is stable. Here it is not: velocity moved by between -27,6 and 15,9 per cent a year, and the correlation of excess money with deflator inflation is only 0,16 the same year and 0,02 with a one-year lead (nine observations, so neither is significant). The lead of the base is -0,28. The reading is that, over a decade, the proportionality of the quantity theory holds as a long-run statement (money grew about 32 per cent a year on average against a deflator of about 16 and output of about 5, the gap being the fall in velocity), but it is a poor year-to-year predictor in a dollarised economy: broad money in francs rises when the franc depreciates because foreign-currency deposits are revalued, so it is partly an effect of prices, not only a cause.", "note_fr": "De MV = PY, les taux de croissance donnent (1 + inflation) = (1 + croissance de la monnaie)(1 + variation de la vitesse)/(1 + croissance de la production) ; les colonnes satisfont cette identité à la décimale pour le déflateur : c'est un énoncé comptable et non un test. La théorie prédit que l'inflation suit la croissance de la monnaie moins celle de la production quand la vitesse est stable. Ce n'est pas le cas : la vitesse a varié entre -27,6 et 15,9 pour cent par an, et la corrélation de l'excès de monnaie avec l'inflation du déflateur n'est que de 0,16 la même année et de 0,02 avec une avance d'un an (neuf observations, donc aucune n'est significative). L'avance de la base est de -0,28. La lecture est que, sur une décennie, la proportionnalité de la théorie quantitative tient comme énoncé de long terme (la monnaie a crû d'environ 32 pour cent par an en moyenne contre un déflateur d'environ 16 et une production d'environ 5, l'écart étant la baisse de la vitesse), mais qu'elle prédit mal d'une année à l'autre dans une économie dollarisée : la monnaie large en francs monte quand le franc se déprécie parce que les dépôts en devises sont réévalués, de sorte qu'elle est en partie un effet des prix et pas seulement une cause." }, "data-disponibilite": { "name_en": "Which series exist over a longer span or at higher frequency than the site shows", "name_fr": "Quelles séries existent sur une période plus longue ou à plus haute fréquence que celle du site", "source": "API de la Banque mondiale (World Development Indicators), interrogée le 8 octobre 2026 ; pages bcc.cd/statistiques ; inventaire de l’auteur.", "cols": [ [ "Topic", "Thème" ], [ "On the site", "Sur le site" ], [ "Longest series found", "Plus longue série trouvée" ], [ "Status", "Statut" ] ], "rows": [ [ [ "Population", "Population" ], [ "2024-2025 and provinces 2026", "2024-2025 et provinces 2026" ], [ "1960-2025, annual", "1960-2025, annuelle" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Real GDP", "PIB réel" ], [ "1990-2025 growth; 2005-2024 levels", "Croissance 1990-2025 ; niveaux 2005-2024" ], [ "1960-2025, annual", "1960-2025, annuelle" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Output per head", "Produit par habitant" ], [ "2000-2025 decomposition", "Décomposition 2000-2025" ], [ "1960-2025, annual (now on the site)", "1960-2025, annuelle (désormais sur le site)" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Consumer prices", "Prix à la consommation" ], [ "1990-2026 annual; monthly index", "1990-2026 annuel ; indice mensuel" ], [ "1964-2016 (World Bank); monthly index from the central bank", "1964-2016 (Banque mondiale) ; indice mensuel de la banque centrale" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Exchange rate, francs per dollar", "Taux de change, francs par dollar" ], [ "Monthly panel", "Panel mensuel" ], [ "1960-2025, annual (redenominations in 1993 and 1998)", "1960-2025, annuelle (redénominations de 1993 et 1998)" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "International reserves", "Réserves internationales" ], [ "Six weekly points, 2026", "Six relevés hebdomadaires, 2026" ], [ "1960-2023, annual", "1960-2023, annuelle" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Broad money", "Monnaie au sens large" ], [ "2015-2024, central bank balance sheets", "2015-2024, bilans de la banque centrale" ], [ "1963-2025, annual (francs and per cent of GDP)", "1963-2025, annuelle (francs et pourcentage du PIB)" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Merchandise trade", "Commerce de marchandises" ], [ "2023-2026; partners 2023", "2023-2026 ; partenaires 2023" ], [ "1960-2025, annual, value", "1960-2025, annuelle, en valeur" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Remittances received", "Envois de fonds reçus" ], [ "2018-2024", "2018-2024" ], [ "2005-2025, annual", "2005-2025, annuelle" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Unemployment and labour force", "Chômage et population active" ], [ "2000-2025", "2000-2025" ], [ "1991-2025, annual (ILO modelled estimates)", "1991-2025, annuelle (estimations modélisées du BIT)" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Life expectancy, fertility, child mortality", "Espérance de vie, fécondité, mortalité infantile" ], [ "Latest year", "Dernière année" ], [ "1960-2024 (mortality 1969-2024), annual", "1960-2024 (mortalité 1969-2024), annuelle" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Primary completion", "Achèvement du primaire" ], [ "2024", "2024" ], [ "1971-2023, 28 observations", "1971-2023, 28 observations" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Poverty", "Pauvreté" ], [ "Projections 2023-2028", "Projections 2023-2028" ], [ "Three survey years only, 2004-2020: no long series exists", "Trois années d’enquête seulement, 2004-2020 : aucune longue série n’existe" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Public revenue and spending", "Recettes et dépenses publiques" ], [ "2016-2026 (IMF); Zaire 1968-1989", "2016-2026 (FMI) ; Zaïre 1968-1989" ], [ "1990-2022, annual; debt only nine observations", "1990-2022, annuelle ; dette : neuf observations seulement" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "External debt", "Dette extérieure" ], [ "2023-2026", "2023-2026" ], [ "1970-2024, annual", "1970-2024, annuelle" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Foreign direct investment", "Investissement direct étranger" ], [ "None", "Aucun" ], [ "1970-2025, annual", "1970-2025, annuelle" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Sector shares of value added", "Parts sectorielles de la valeur ajoutée" ], [ "2024", "2024" ], [ "1994-2025, annual", "1994-2025, annuelle" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Investment and saving", "Investissement et épargne" ], [ "2023-2026 (IMF)", "2023-2026 (FMI)" ], [ "1991-2025, annual", "1991-2025, annuelle" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Commodity prices", "Cours des matières premières" ], [ "Monthly from 1960", "Mensuels depuis 1960" ], [ "Monthly, 1960 onwards (World Bank Pink Sheet)", "Mensuelle depuis 1960 (Pink Sheet de la Banque mondiale)" ], [ "Verified on 8 October 2026 (World Bank API)", "Vérifié le 8 octobre 2026 (API Banque mondiale)" ] ], [ [ "Quarterly national accounts", "Comptes nationaux trimestriels" ], [ "None", "Aucun" ], [ "None found: only annual accounts are published", "Aucune trouvée : seuls des comptes annuels sont publiés" ], [ "Verified (bcc.cd pages read)", "Vérifié (pages bcc.cd consultées)" ] ], [ [ "Refugees and displaced persons", "Réfugiés et déplacés" ], [ "Latest counts", "Derniers relevés" ], [ "UNHCR and IDMC series exist but were not retrieved here", "Des séries du HCR et de l’IDMC existent mais n’ont pas été récupérées ici" ], [ "To be verified", "À vérifier" ] ] ], "note_en": "Of the twenty-one topics, sixteen have an annual series spanning 30 to 66 years in the World Bank database that the site does not yet use in full; the exchange rate, broad money, reserves, trade and life expectancy are the most useful for the analysis, because they cover the hyperinflation of the 1990s and the crisis of 1975-2002 that the shorter series miss. Two limits matter. First, poverty has three survey years and no long series exists; any claim on its long run is an inference. Second, no quarterly national accounts are published, so business-cycle statements rest on annual data or on monthly proxies (prices, money, reserves, copper). High-frequency series (monthly consumer prices, exchange rate, policy rate, commodity prices) are already used in the monthly panel.", "note_fr": "Sur les vingt et un thèmes, seize disposent dans la base de la Banque mondiale d’une série annuelle couvrant 30 à 66 ans que le site n’exploite pas encore entièrement ; le taux de change, la monnaie large, les réserves, le commerce et l’espérance de vie sont les plus utiles à l’analyse, car ils couvrent l’hyperinflation des années 1990 et la crise de 1975-2002 que les séries courtes ne voient pas. Deux limites comptent. D’abord, la pauvreté n’a que trois années d’enquête et aucune longue série n’existe : toute affirmation sur son long terme est une inférence. Ensuite, aucun compte national trimestriel n’est publié, de sorte que les énoncés sur le cycle reposent sur des données annuelles ou sur des indicateurs mensuels (prix, monnaie, réserves, cuivre). Les séries à haute fréquence (prix à la consommation mensuels, taux de change, taux directeur, cours des matières premières) sont déjà dans le panel mensuel." } }